I did a load cal on the shop/garage.?. as you described and had to guess at the rest.
440 sq ft.
N wall, E wall, S wall, no W wall.
1 window each wall.
R30 attic insulation (If you don't have attic insulation, you'll have to have it).
No wall insulation (Difference is 2,800 btu less if you have R11).
Dark roof- no ducts- open attic and ventilated.
Concrete slab- no edge insulation.
Added 1,200 btu for person and tools- lights.
Sacramento, California conditions.
Heat gain= Sensible is 10,500, latent 100. I would go with 12,000 btu as a rule.
Heat loss= 18,000 btu. 20k would heat fine.
Mini splits have compressors that may run 80% of the time to control humidity and they use blower speeds and compressor speeds to ramp up and down.. It is easy and ok to oversize the unit because of this.
Under these conditions, if it were mine, I would choose a 14,000 btu unit. If I wanted a quicker response to change the temperatures, I would go 18,000 btu.
A heat pump won't do you well if you want to change the temps quickly. Electric heat is a better option. 5kw might work.
I've been at for over 44 years, but in Texas, so I'm not familiar with California's climate.
I can recommend Mitsubishi. I have fewer problems with them and their service back up is one of the best. Cost less in the long run.
HVAC Cal. load.