So who thinks they will be driving electric in 10 years?

Yeah, big difference in price and longevity for batteries designed for constant use vs short term, high starting current.
An electric motor is definitely more reliable and lower maintenance than a gas or diesel engine, but when you consider how much fuel one could buy for $800-$1,000 that replacement batteries would cost, they start to lose their appeal.
 
JPigg55 said:
Yeah, big difference in price and longevity for batteries designed for constant use vs short term, high starting current.
An electric motor is definitely more reliable and lower maintenance than a gas or diesel engine, but when you consider how much fuel one could buy for $800-$1,000 that replacement batteries would cost, they start to lose their appeal.
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OK here are my calcs based on a Tesla Model 3 doing a 60 mile round trip commute every working day. I am assuming an "equivalent" car to get about 27-28 mpg and with gas prices in CA just over $4/gal and TOU off-peak electricity costing us $0.12/KwH (we generate some of this with solar but I am ignoring that as we have net-net metering).

It takes 2.5 hours and costs us about $2.30 to charge at home each day (240 volts * 32 amps *2.5 hours *$0.12) for the commute which translates to 0.575 gallons at current prices. A gas car would use about 2.2 gallons for the commute which is a daily saving of $6.50. Multiplying this up for a year of 50 weeks of daily weekday commutes gives an annual savings of about $1625.

Ignoring the fact that a BMW would need regular servicing and the Tesla does not (except for tire rotation), the estimated battery price of $7000 (not "$1000" as estimated above) which MAY be required after 6.6 years and after the 100000 mile/8 year Tesla battery warranty was up, then the savings amounting to $10,700 (6.6 years * $1625) would pay for a new battery, and incidentally boost the car's value way above that of an equivalent gas car 7 years old.
If the battery lasted longer than 100000 miles then it would be even better.
If the battery died within the warranty period and we got a free replacement, it would be better still (for us, worse for Tesla).
I recognize that battery range drops off as the battery ages but that doesn't change the cost per mile (measured in WattHours) . Of course Tesla promises that batteries will get cheaper in future and last longer and that does seem reasonable given the state of the technology.

I would be glad of any questions or comments about my calculations?
 
The $800-$1,000 for batteries was concerning the previous post for an electric garden tractor. It uses four 12v lead acid batteries that run around $200 each and usually only last 2 to 5 years.

Tesla car, whole different animal. Being in California makes a difference as well as gas prices here are running in the $2.60/gal range.
Since you brought it up, it would appear you installed a home charging station to charge you car. How much did that cost and what would it cost to replace if it fails ?
I considered a Tesla model S back when they first came out, but the nearest dealer to me is over a 4 hour drive away and the nearest Tesla charging station is around 90 minutes away. I was driving almost 300 miles round trip to and from work with no place to charge in between so even with the extended battery upgrade, it would push the limits of what the cars advertises range would be.
I averaged driving around 60,000 miles a year so the 100K mile battery warranty would last me just short of 2 years. All things considered, the potential fuel savings couldn't justify the added cost.

Something else I had to consider, the model 3 wasn't even thought of back then and the model S ran in the $65K-$85K price range depending on options. I just looked and saw the model 3 runs over $35K on the low end.
I ended up buying a Subaru Legacy loaded out the door for under $20K, more than $60K less than what the model S would have cost.
Even compared to the low end model 3 price, that's $15K less on the purchase price. Even at $4/gal gas, that's 3,750 gallons of fuel. At the 31-36 mpg I was getting, that's 116,250 miles even at the low 31 mpg.
There are even long term considerations like the availability of replacement batteries. I worked with some guys who drove hybrids that they couldn't get rid of because battery technology had made the batteries they used obsolete. I'll admit this is less likely for a Tesla, but not out of the equation. While a new battery technology like Graphene based batteries might be retro fitted to work in your Tesla model 3, what if Graphene super capacitors wins out ? Replacement lithium ion batteries could become both extremely rare and expensive in a very short time.
 
JPigg55 said:
The $800-$1,000 for batteries was concerning the previous post for an electric garden tractor. It uses four 12v lead acid batteries that run around $200 each and usually only last 2 to 5 years.

Tesla car, whole different animal. Being in California makes a difference as well as gas prices here are running in the $2.60/gal range.
Since you brought it up, it would appear you installed a home charging station to charge you car. How much did that cost and what would it cost to replace if it fails ?
I considered a Tesla model S back when they first came out, but the nearest dealer to me is over a 4 hour drive away and the nearest Tesla charging station is around 90 minutes away. I was driving almost 300 miles round trip to and from work with no place to charge in between so even with the extended battery upgrade, it would push the limits of what the cars advertises range would be.
I averaged driving around 60,000 miles a year so the 100K mile battery warranty would last me just short of 2 years. All things considered, the potential fuel savings couldn't justify the added cost.

Something else I had to consider, the model 3 wasn't even thought of back then and the model S ran in the $65K-$85K price range depending on options. I just looked and saw the model 3 runs over $35K on the low end.
I ended up buying a Subaru Legacy loaded out the door for under $20K, more than $60K less than what the model S would have cost.
Even compared to the low end model 3 price, that's $15K less on the purchase price. Even at $4/gal gas, that's 3,750 gallons of fuel. At the 31-36 mpg I was getting, that's 116,250 miles even at the low 31 mpg.
There are even long term considerations like the availability of replacement batteries. I worked with some guys who drove hybrids that they couldn't get rid of because battery technology had made the batteries they used obsolete. I'll admit this is less likely for a Tesla, but not out of the equation. While a new battery technology like Graphene based batteries might be retro fitted to work in your Tesla model 3, what if Graphene super capacitors wins out ? Replacement lithium ion batteries could become both extremely rare and expensive in a very short time.
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You have to consider the cost of electricity as well as that of gas.

The home charging installation installation cost about $35. I needed a 50A breaker (double for 240V), some 6 gauge wire and a Nema 14-50P surface mounted socket. All came from Home Depot and it took a couple of hours to install. Difficult to see how it would be likely to fail. The cable that Tesla supplies with the car plugs right into it but only draws a maximum of 32 amps. If you want more you have to buy the $500 Tesla charger and install it in much the same way. The extra speed of charging wasn't worth it for us. In SoCal, Edison will actually pay up to $500 to have it done for you. They also gave us a $1000 grant just for buying the car. The state gave us $2500 and a car-pool lane sticker so you can use it with just one person in the car.

We have owned 3 hybrids, all great cars. You can't compare hybrids or even V8-powered "muscle" cars (I used to have a 4.6L Mustang) to a Tesla though. The performance is fantastic and the only sound is road noise.

This is little point trying to guess how Lithium Ion or other technologies will progress in capacity or reduce in cost. You can be fairly sure they will though. The Tesla charging network is a major plus for those who need cross-country capability, but of course it is the car's self-driving features that really make it different. Right now you can drive long distances on freeways without actually having to drive at all (much safer than me driving especially in bad weather or heavy traffic) but there is a lot to be done before the car can really drive itself around towns. It's all coming though.

In future I expect second-hand and ex-lease Teslas will be a great deal.
 
Now that I'm retired and don't have the long commute, I'd definitely consider a Tesla. I'd still be a little reluctant without a dealer or certified maintenance shop closer than what currently exists.
I haven't looked into the other manufacturer models of late, but haven't been too impressed with any that are in my price range.
Here in Illinois, they're more likely to charge you extra than give tax credits and the like as California does. I'm also out in the country with an REA electric company so have even higher electric rates than you do. Would still be cheaper than buying gas though.
 
Another point to look at. Here in Wisconsin they just added an electric/hybrid tax. Every year when you pay for your plates, there is an extra tax added for all electric or hybrid vehicles. this is because the gas tax is used to pay for the roads and the electrics are not paying the gas tax. They are now.
 
Flyinfool said:
Another point to look at. Here in Wisconsin they just added an electric/hybrid tax. Every year when you pay for your plates, there is an extra tax added for all electric or hybrid vehicles. this is because the gas tax is used to pay for the roads and the electrics are not paying the gas tax. They are now.
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Do you really believe the gas tax pays for the roads? Tax is tax. You tax what you don't want.
 
The aging power grid will not sustain the added load of millions of electric vehicles so I expect the electric vehicle
industry will nose over at some point in the near future. We are approaching peak oil and already are using
the grid at it's fullest. The main problem with electric power is the huge inefficiency along the way as it is generated and
distributed around the country. The electric grid operates at about twenty five percent efficiency The price of fuel
and electricity will continue to rise so at some point we will have to learn how to conserve what is left of our resources.
The grid uses peaking plants that burn diesel or natural gas to compensate for varying loads on the grid. The fewer
energy conversions, the better as far as efficiency is concerned. I expect I will be driving a gasoline powered vehicle
in ten years in northern Minnesota where temperatures often reach minus 40 in the winter. A vehicle with four wheel drive
and a good heater is a welcome thing in these parts and not likely be electric powered any time soon.
 
I ran into another post on a different forum. I didn't think work towards a hydrogen based system was still going on with much gusto, but it seems a couple major breakthroughs have been made. Not yet commercially viable yet, but starting to look good.
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-method-hydrogen-efficiently-capture-renewable.amp
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/201...ir-and-water-could-power-globe-without-carbon

For vehicles, hydrogen from ammonia makes a lot of sense. Infrastructure already exists in the most part due to agricultural use, easily stored and transported, and non-polluting. I couldn't find the article, but (as I remember it) a researcher in a western US University developed a way to store ammonia at ambient pressure and temperature in a salt based matrix that, for the same given volume, would give the same mileage range as gasoline in a vehicle.
 
davidcarmichael said:
Do you really believe the gas tax pays for the roads? Tax is tax. You tax what you don't want.
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Yes tax is tax and there is no way to know where the money is actually going once collected. BUT this is still a tax that ONLY electric and hybrid vehicles have to pay so it is a valid cost of electric that must be factored into any cost of ownership/operation comparison. The gas tax is built into the price of gasoline that electric and hybrid are not paying yet it is still being calculated into the cost of operating an ICE vehicle. Fair is fair
 
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