# The "market"



## Aukai (Oct 7, 2022)

I do not want this to get political, it is just a statement. I'm in a moderate to low risk managed fund. I have never seen a 3 day nose dive this big since I've been watching. Circle the wagons, and wait for the Calvary to get here.


----------



## twhite (Oct 7, 2022)

I here you. I am taking a total beating this year. Set me back probably 3 more years on my retirement plans. It will probably drop about the same next year. Then start a slow recovery if it follows the past 100 years. 


Cutting oil is my blood.


----------



## 7milesup (Oct 7, 2022)

Aukai said:


> , and wait for the Calvary to get here.


who or what do you think this might be?


----------



## Aukai (Oct 7, 2022)

I'm not going to go there  We need rescuing....


----------



## extropic (Oct 7, 2022)

Please fellas, *Cavalry* (*Cav-al-ry*) is the mounted military force.

One definition of calvary is an experience or occasion of extreme suffering, especially mental suffering.

Perhaps the Cavalry could rescue you from your calvary.


----------



## markba633csi (Oct 7, 2022)

I thought Calvary was the hill where a certain carpenter was dispatched?


----------



## Aaron_W (Oct 7, 2022)

Keep in mind it is a world wide issue, not limited to one country. There are a lot of moving parts grinding gears right now.

Be glad you are not an Australian in 1932


----------



## matthewsx (Oct 7, 2022)

Been in cash over a year now, yes there is inflation but we are very risk adverse....

John


----------



## 7milesup (Oct 7, 2022)

Aaron_W said:


> Keep in mind it is *a world wide issue*, not limited to one country. There are a lot of moving parts grinding gears right now.


You have that right.


----------



## Martin W (Oct 7, 2022)

Martin


----------



## Aukai (Oct 7, 2022)

I'm thinking Rin Tin Tin, or Sky King.....


----------



## GunsOfNavarone (Oct 7, 2022)

I've lost about 75k in my 401k in the last 3 months alone. As a recession is looming, probably not getting better anytime soon. I had planned to retire at 55 (about 1.5 years) that is looking bleaker by the day. Considering you have to pay taxes on the money you set aside your whole working career (bleaker yet), as most of us know, SS is a waste to rely on if it will exist at all, in the years to come.


----------



## erikmannie (Oct 7, 2022)

I follow the developments in Eastern Europe *really, really closely*. I think stocks are very likely to get “radioactive” one day in the near future, but I don’t think you will see this happen for several months or even a year. Perhaps even longer, but I would bet that this “fallout” will happen before this chapter in Eastern European history ends. Every single piece is in place for this to happen, & I don’t see a change coming.

If you have a considerable amount of money in stocks, you might want to consider how the stock market would react to such a “super-heated” event. I think this certainly makes a nice case for putting your money into bonds, mortgage backed securities, money market funds or anything immune from such a “shockwave”.

There are a few people who would take great pleasure in “sticking it to the West”, & they have all the mechanisms in place to do so (albeit as a perceived last resort).


----------



## matthewsx (Oct 7, 2022)

Real property, you can't live in a 401K. Can't rent it out either....

John


----------



## Aukai (Oct 7, 2022)

Some of us are living off of retirement, Social Insecurity does not cover all expenses. YTD I'm down 184.....


----------



## wachuko (Oct 7, 2022)

Martin W said:


> View attachment 422646
> View attachment 422647
> 
> 
> ...


I am not looking at mine for another few years… not good for my health   

Can’t freak out… it will bounce back…


----------



## wachuko (Oct 7, 2022)

GunsOfNavarone said:


> I've lost about 75k in my 401k in the last 3 months alone. As a recession is looming, probably not getting better anytime soon. I had planned to retire at 55 (about 1.5 years) that is looking bleaker by the day. Considering you have to pay taxes on the money you set aside your whole working career (bleaker yet), as most of us know, SS is a waste to rely on if it will exist at all, in the years to come.


Hahahahjajajajjajahahahhahaha

I was going to retire in my 40’s!!!  And then the bubble burst…. 55 now and I will retire when they fire my as*!!!

Until then, I am buying tools to play with when I finally have to retire… f* that!! Heheh

Edit: Sorry… might be the wine talking… wine for the heart that is…


----------



## twhite (Oct 7, 2022)

wachuko said:


> Hahahahjajajajjajahahahhahaha
> 
> I was going to retire in my 40’s!!! And the the bubble burst…. 55 now and I will retire when they fire my as*!!!
> 
> ...



That looks to be mine also. Collect while I can. Keep working. I actually love working in a machine shop. So I am winning. 


Cutting oil is my blood.


----------



## GunsOfNavarone (Oct 7, 2022)

I luckily paid off my house this year, have no credit card balances or car payments. The cost of living being so high everywhere (Colorado has gone through the roof) and the stock market fiasco is what is really holding me back. I can qualify for disability, but due to my personal beliefs, I'd rather not go down that road. As they say, "it's in God's hands now" (Can we say God here? I know that can be controversial too)  : )


----------



## Aukai (Oct 7, 2022)

I started buying machines 4 years before I retired in 2019 @ 66


----------



## Just for fun (Oct 7, 2022)

I try not to look at my investments right now.  Knowing there is nothing I can do about it.  All it would do is keep me awake at night.  Hoping the company I have hired to take care of my money are making the best decisions.  I'm hoping that things will turn around again in a couple year or less.  Unfortunately, it seems to me that the younger generation have a different outlook on America and the way thing ought to be than I do.

Ya heck with it.... I'm going to buy more tools!


----------



## RJSakowski (Oct 8, 2022)

Year to date, our investments are down  a third of a million.  The bulk of our investments are not in IRA's so any trades are subject to realized gains and subject to capital gains taxes.  If I were to move the account to safer investments, they would be subject to a huge federal tax bill for the year so we are essentially locked in.  Fasten the seat belts and enjoy the ride.

We live a relatively modest life style and the combination of my social security, the required MRD on my IRA, and a small monthly disbursement for our major account meets our day to day needs.  Hopefully, there won't be a need for any major expenditures for a year or two.  The new car for my wife will have to wait.

The sting though, was that our financial manager sold off a significant amount of holdings which has resulted in a large tax liability for next April.


----------



## Boswell (Oct 8, 2022)

While working, I also bought machines and fitted out the shop in anticipation of retirement. Now that I am retired, my health keeps me from fully utilizing the shop investment. I still get 1-2 hours of shop time many days. House, land, shop, CC. all paid for so 401K, SS and wifes pension cover day to day expenses and we are happy together.


----------



## pontiac428 (Oct 8, 2022)

The last couple years cost me a bundle.  Where's my bailout?

The fiscal quarter just ended on 30 Sept, marking the end of the fiscal year for the government and many publicly traded corps.  Corps liquidate and cut to get on the right side of the red at the last minute during this time, which usually causes a depression as shareholders wait for the earnings report to dump their stocks.  It gets better when people start spending money for the holidays.  Of course, there's no accounting for wars, disease, and floods.


----------



## twhite (Oct 8, 2022)

I look at it this way. It will recover. The past 100+ years prove that. The market is negative 30% of the time. How many years running varies from 1-5 years ( Great Depression) It is beyond my control. I chose to put some funds there. I knew the risks and opted for it. I will live with my choices and blame nobody. 

We all will leave this life with nothing. It really does not matter what we accumulate. 


Cutting oil is my blood.


----------



## 7milesup (Oct 8, 2022)

Very well said @twhite 

None of this gnashing of teeth will matter if Putin decides to pull out the nukes and use them.  Our world will change immediately and my retirement savings will be the least of my concerns.


----------



## twhite (Oct 8, 2022)

7milesup said:


> Very well said @twhite
> 
> None of this gnashing of teeth will matter if Putin decides to pull out the nukes and use them. Our world will change immediately and my retirement savings will be the least of my concerns.



I stopped worrying about world affairs a few years ago. It is way beyond us peons control. Take each day as it is given. Love your family and fellow man. We are all wondering through this experience together. May as well be nice. 

That is just me. Your mileage may vary. 


Cutting oil is my blood.


----------



## 7milesup (Oct 8, 2022)

twhite said:


> I stopped worrying about world affairs a few years ago. It is way beyond us peons control. Take each day as it is given. Love your family and fellow man. We are all wondering through this experience together. May as well be nice.
> 
> That is just me. Your mileage may vary.
> 
> ...


Spot on, my friend.


----------



## savarin (Oct 8, 2022)

I think if you are in the share market for the short haul you are in essence gambling.
If your in it for the long haul you will usually come out ahead.
It does seem that in general if you take any 10 year period the stock market is higher at the end of that period than at the beginning no matter what it went through in between. 
Time to hunker down and wait.


----------



## ddickey (Oct 8, 2022)

Anyone here sell options?


----------



## Wheat47 (Oct 8, 2022)

We have some EDJ investments that we've been very happy with.  Mostly moderate range.
Happened to have an excess of cash earning .01% interest.  EDJ had an offer of 3.45% interest
for CD's.  So, we put about half of the cash in CD's .
A lot better than the .01 thing!!!
My theory is just let'er ride.  When I was still working our 401k's took a hit.  Some of the guys were juggling things, looking for less loss or more money.   I just let mine ride and I did just as well or better than the guy's shuffling things around


----------



## Wheat47 (Oct 8, 2022)

savarin said:


> I think if you are in the share market for the short haul you are in essence gambling.
> If your in it for the long haul you will usually come out ahead.
> It does seem that in general if you take any 10 year period the stock market is higher at the end of that period than at the beginning no matter what it went through in between.
> Time to hunker down and wait.


I agree.


----------



## JPMacG (Oct 9, 2022)

Each time the stock market takes a dive I resist the urge to sell.  Doing this has worked out well so far as the market has always recovered and then grown more.  Its not a loss until you sell.   Those who panicked and sold low are the ones who lost.   Of course... (sigh)...  this time could be different.


----------



## mmcmdl (Oct 9, 2022)

Plenty of dry powder here if needed .  Enough to get by without using 401s the rest of my life easily . Strong $$ is looking good up here in Canada at the moment , especially at the beverage stores .


----------



## rabler (Oct 9, 2022)

ddickey said:


> Anyone here sell options?


Occasionally, not heavily.


----------



## rabler (Oct 9, 2022)

JPMacG said:


> Each time the stock market takes a dive I resist the urge to sell.  Doing this has worked out well so far as the market has always recovered and then grown more.  Its not a loss until you sell.   Those who panicked and sold low are the ones who lost.   Of course... (sigh)...  this time could be different.


The only rule that really matters in the market is "buy low, sell high".  Everything else is just guidelines on how to accomplish that


----------



## Wheat47 (Oct 9, 2022)

JPMacG said:


> Each time the stock market takes a dive I resist the urge to sell.  Doing this has worked out well so far as the market has always recovered and then grown more.  Its not a loss until you sell.   Those who panicked and sold low are the ones who lost.   Of course... (sigh)...  this time could be different.


If you're in the right position, you're supposed to buy when the market dives.  I've not had the nerve to do that.


----------



## Cheeseking (Oct 9, 2022)

If your looking for a “safe” return on a little bit of cash check out I bonds. They pay 9.625% every six months right now. The catch is there’s a $10k/yr limit per person so a husband and wife can put $20k in each year. Also no withdrawals for 1 year and yrs 2-5 any withdrawals are penalized 3 months interest I believe. You can only buy them online here https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/ 
All the details are there. You have to set up an account and link a bank checking or savings to fund purchases. It won’t save anyones retirement with a 10k/yr limit but hey every bit helps. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Janderso (Oct 30, 2022)

And here we are a few weeks later.
Looking good as of last Friday.
With the diesel shortage, we may be in for another adjustment period.
This economy is very fragile.
The printing of seven trillion $ and the situation in Ukraine isn’t helping the stability.
Not to mention the price of money has gone way up.


----------



## Aukai (Oct 30, 2022)

Haha, I'm back up,,,, to only 47K down for the month, and still way down for the year. I do like green days better than red


----------



## erikmannie (Oct 30, 2022)

Obviously, the aforementioned 7 trillion of QE will cause inflation until we get the same in QT (which the Fed has wisely started). Expect that inflation is here to stay.

They probably won’t do even close to 7 trillion in QT because QT both (1) reduces tax revenue amounts & (2) increases the effective size of the federal debt. This is why the Fed is much more willing to do QE than to do QT. 

QE is a benefit to the federal government for both their tax revenue & their debt (as a percentage of their (say, annual) revenue). This is a case of the fox guarding the henhouse, & we are the chickens.

For all of those years of the government (and thus we ourselves in terms of however we benefited from federal spending) beyond its means, now *we will have to live with inflation by reducing our standard of living*. They were kicking the can down the road, & COVID-19 (spending) accelerated the crisis.

Maybe one day we will have a thread on personal austerity tips.


----------



## mmcmdl (Oct 30, 2022)

Used to be this .Now it's this !


----------



## erikmannie (Oct 30, 2022)

mmcmdl said:


> Used to be this .Now it's this !



I find that to be 100% accurate for both the federal government & the consumers.

If we can’t reduce our standard of living enough, we will have to come out of retirement or take second jobs. This is beneficial because the wages would be higher, having been adjusted for inflation.

For me, the bottom line is “Waste money at your own peril”. I don’t need to be living in a car thinking back on how I used to go to Starbucks & eat out every day.


----------



## matthewsx (Oct 30, 2022)

Just buy machine tools and real property....


----------



## Aukai (Oct 30, 2022)




----------

