# Dry powder .................when is the question ?



## mmcmdl (Jan 18, 2022)

Stock markets going down daily , and one of my favs in the past got a haircut today . I'm going to sit on the fence this week and watch it closely . It may be time .   









						Unilever PLC (UL) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
					

Find the latest Unilever PLC (UL) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.




					finance.yahoo.com


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## rabler (Jan 18, 2022)

I'm worried the market could still be a falling knife, but I'll be watching closely this week.


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## Aukai (Jan 18, 2022)

I have been getting several trade alerts from my financial group, mostly on sold stocks. I noticed this morning that my cash holdings went from 20K to 85K, they must have seen something coming. Hang on boys it's gonna get rough....


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## mmcmdl (Jan 18, 2022)

Aukai said:


> I have been getting several trade alerts from my financial group, mostly on sold stocks. I noticed this morning that my cash holdings went from 20K to 85K, they must have seen something coming.


Time to upgrade to CNC then !


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## Aukai (Jan 18, 2022)

Nope, nope, and nope, no way, no how, ain't gonna happen.


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## rabler (Jan 18, 2022)

@Aukai may not go for CNC, but I have my eye out for a suitable VMC to add to the shop.  Minor catch is that the construction company hasn't started building the new shop, but "... by the end of January".  Fingers crossed.


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## pdentrem (Jan 18, 2022)

As the FED starts raising the rate, the market will start down. The question how much increase and over how much time.
I have been looking at MAIN and GAIN. Similar companies and payouts. MAIN did better over the last decade.
Pierre


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## mmcmdl (Jan 19, 2022)

EZ money .


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## Ischgl99 (Jan 19, 2022)

I think we still have a long way to go before we reach the bottom.  I’m keeping my cash on the sidelines for a few more months to see how this plays out.  More real estate developers in China are defaulting and I think that is going to spill over to the world economy in the next few months.  I also think the fed was too late reducing QE and will need to raise rates quickly to reduce inflation, which will hurt stocks, then will probably overreact as usual once the market starts correcting.  I think we will get at least a 25% drop this year, but I think 50% down is a real possibility by the end of the year.


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## JRaut (Jan 19, 2022)

I'm certainly not one to try to time the market. But I've substantially eased off the gas pedal on my investments in the past few weeks.

Ready to hop back on the gas when (if?) the time comes. Hard to believe it won't, but I've been surprised before.


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## aliva (Jan 19, 2022)

I pay people to worry for me, and make those decisions. So far they're making me money


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## mmcmdl (Jan 19, 2022)

8% in a day ain't bad .


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## rabler (Apr 22, 2022)

How's that powder doing?


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## zondar (Apr 22, 2022)

I started investing in stock *just* prior to the 2008 crash. At the low of the crash, I had lost half of my life's savings - so much that I'd have to work and save for 10-20 years to make up for it. It was absolutely crushing. But in the end, it was the _best catastrophe_ I've experienced.

As the crash started I started buying more, and lost money on that. I bought yet more, and lost on that too, and more, and lost, and more, and lost. _Everything_ lost money!

Finally, March 2009 came around. I had only a little "dry powder" left, and I made my last purchase. By then, I wasn't crying about losing half my money, the bargains out there were so insane that _*I was crying*_* because I couldn't buy even more!*

Needless to say, that was the bottom, and it was a rocket-ship up and up, mostly, since then. In hind-sight, I should not have taken the risks I did, but it worked out. I've since sold the excess stock, and I'm back to a sane percentage that I can live with through thick and thin.

We aren't near the level of 2008's disaster now. Sure, I (and many of you) lost a lot since the start of the year, but you and I are still up big time compared to a year or two prior. "Anchoring" (focusing on your last peak as if that's meaningful) is not healthy.

I don't check the markets obsessively (as I did in 2008/2009). I'm no longer tempted to buy dips, nor to sell when I imagine that a "top" is in. I do have concerns about inflation, but am not making major changes in response.

Just invest steadily at a level that allows you to sleep at night. Keep it simple! Invest in a rock-bottom-cost S&P-500 mutual fund or other all-in-one product (e.g. target retirement, etc.). Don't play with individual stocks, especially meme stocks and crypto investments scams. Don't pay attention to the financial news media, whose entire marketing strategy is to alternate instilling fear and greed in their audience. Especially skip the "get rich the fast and easy way" books and blogs - investing doesn't work that way. 

For financial and investment questions, visit bogleheads.org for solid advice by an audience as experienced, sympathetic and helpful as this one is. Their Wiki section also has some of the best and most comprehensive advice you can find on a range of financial and investment topics.

Bogleheads.org


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## JRaut (Apr 22, 2022)

zondar said:


> For financial and investment questions, visit bogleheads.org for solid advice by an audience as experienced, sympathetic and helpful as this one is. Their Wiki section also has some of the best and most comprehensive advice you can find on a range of financial and investment topics.
> 
> Bogleheads.org



+1


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## Aukai (Apr 22, 2022)

Just have to be patient, and not panic.


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## mmcmdl (Apr 22, 2022)

rabler said:


> How's that powder doing?


It's still dry .


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## mmcmdl (Apr 22, 2022)

Here is where it gets interesting . Being off work I've had nothing going into any funds . I'm cleaning out the garage , the basement , the other basement , taking crap up to the auctioneer to unload , and figure I'll have $ 2.00 to invest in a growth fund . In 30 years , I'll enjoy that micro brew .


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## matthewsx (Apr 23, 2022)

Invest in machine tools and motorcycles. You won’t be sorry

John


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## addertooth (Apr 23, 2022)

In 2008 I made out like a bandit.  My gut told me to move to bonds about 3 months before the crash.  After the crash, I moved it back to stocks (which were at a depressed value).   My biggest regret was waiting a bit too long to jump back to stocks; I missed some of the really explosive growth.  I also missed out on some of the last minute frantic stock growth immediately before the crash by moving to bonds 3 months early.  

Anyone who hasn't figured out where they are going to jump to, before the next crash are behind the curve.  You should already have that next step planned at this time (you should have specific holdings for your money planned which have safe-haven value). My gut says we are about 6 to 18 months away from the next crash.   But remember, what makes wealth are large swings in stock value (in either direction).  Think of the market like a pump.  Select your investment strategy accordingly.  Nobody makes real money when stock values are stable.


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## rabler (Apr 23, 2022)

matthewsx said:


> Invest in machine tools and motorcycles. You won’t be sorry
> 
> John


My secret invest strategy is to sink money into space to store said toys.


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