# "K" recovery and "demand" job skills



## visenfile (Dec 26, 2020)

It is somewhat heartening to hear  economists name trade related jobs as one of three future job demand fields (the upward "K" leg).  The other two on a recent agenda were digital and health care.  Some (besides me) in this forum have lamented the demise of junior college trade programs.  Perhaps the sometimes unrealistic and relentless push for university degrees can be examined in view of high cost and often low job benefit.  Germany had (has?) a system which provided for technical training where it seemed advantageous.  They continue to power the EU and most would agree are a leader in quality products.

Housing slump has apparently been driven partly by lack of skilled labor.   Recently a documentary appeared showing a growth in female construction workers, and why not,  leaving a $15 job (or two)  to support a family.  I maintain my house in a remote area where contractors do not like to go so I do considerable work I would gladly farm out.  No one who seems reliable  is interested .   If it is not a total house renovation , exterior paint job or roof it is simply no response or no bid.  We need to reintroduce the nation to the screwdriver and hammer.  For their psychic benefits.  To show entry home buyer how to keep a house. To learn how to glue pvc pipe!


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## Nutfarmer (Dec 26, 2020)

I have some rental homes and it is so hard to find competent people or companies for repair work that it is easier to do it my self. There are just too many time I have had to go back and redo items I have hired out to have done. At least in California I feel there would be a good opportunity for anyone going into the trades.


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## mmcmdl (Dec 26, 2020)

I have retirement squarely in my sights at the moment and I've been crunching the numbers the past two nights in here at work . I could make $18,000 over SS benefits as a part time employee and also do some side hustle jobs on the side . There is a website/app called " next door " out there . This has stirred my interest . I have enough tools in the shed to do just about any job imaginable .


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## 7milesup (Dec 26, 2020)

Probably should be in the off topic section...


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## Dhal22 (Dec 26, 2020)

mmcmdl said:


> I have retirement squarely in my sights at the moment and I've been crunching the numbers the past two nights in here at work . I could make $18,000 over SS benefits as a part time employee and also do some side hustle jobs on the side . There is a website/app called " next door " out there . This has stirred my interest . I have enough tools in the shed to do just about any job imaginable .




Next door is wonderful.   My company gets regular referrals on it,  most anything now I look for first there.


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## mmcmdl (Dec 26, 2020)

My buddy just retired from McCormick spice at 62 YO and makes out quite well on that website . There's more work out there than you can shake a stick at .  I'm on the fence about retiring this April , I need a small nudge .


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## Dhal22 (Dec 26, 2020)

I'm 53 so years still in front of me,  especially owning my own business.


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## mmcmdl (Dec 26, 2020)

Dhal22 said:


> I'm 53 so years still in front of me, especially owning my own business.



I have to get down your way and pick up an enclosed trailer soon .  Seems like they're all made in Georgia . We spend a few weeks down in Surfside Beach SC every year so one of these years I'll go the extra 100 miles or so .


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## addertooth (Dec 27, 2020)

There are several old "craftsman occupations" that have had critical shortages for decades. The shortages in these professions have only become more dire with time.

Hand engravers who do that wonderful Western Scrollwork on Firearms and Knives typically charge fifty dollars an hour (and UP) for their craft.  There is no working out in the elements, or dealing with unpleasant dust/fumes.  It typically takes 3 to 5 years to develop the skill to a "marketable level".  I have known a few engravers who sought their early work; I asked them why.  Their response was "when I started making money doing this, I did not realize how bad my work was, and the customer was quite satisfied, but, I did not want my early pieces to be my legacy".  
Many Engravers who are on the upper end of skill have a 1 year waiting list to have them work on your item, they charge way more than 50 bucks an hour. 

Those who hand polish Japanese Swords (with water stones), known as a "Togishi", are in ridiculous demand.  A lower tier polisher charges around 200 dollars per inch of blade.  A medium range polisher typically has a 2 to 5 year waiting list.  In Japan, they have paid scholarships to learn the craft, as they consider all things associated with Japanese swords a critical part of their traditions and legacy.  Even they are having problems finding people of a younger generation willing to dedicate themselves to the craft.  As an odd twist of circumstances, American and Australian Togishi are in high demand.   This is because there are no import restrictions of swords in those countries. In Japan, an incoming sword MUST be a papered and logged piece of "historical value", or Japanese Customs will cut the blade in half and mail it back to the owner.  The owner is not compensated for their loss.  This makes sending a sword to America or Australia a lower-risk proposition. 

There are many other crafts like these, which are dying, but not for want of demand.  The learning curve is so steep that many simply can't imagine spending a few years mastering the craft before they make a buck.  On the flip side, people will spend years to get a degree, which will not produce incomes until they have completed their educational program. 

I have tried to teach my step sons these skills, as well as electronics and machining... but they have little interest. They are emblematic of their generation.  Instead, they pin their hopes on future increases in Minimum wage, and fully embrace the concept that a minimum wage job should pay enough to buy a house and a new car.


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## 7milesup (Dec 27, 2020)

That was very informative Adder.  I had no idea about the engravers or sword polishers.  Very interesting.  
Now, if I could get my wife to be a sword polisher I would be all set.


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## addertooth (Dec 27, 2020)

7milesup,

  If she is of an artistic leaning, hand engraving would probably suit her better.  With the modern pneumatic engraving machines, the need to chase a graver with a hammer has all but been eliminated, and produces superior results for most. I took my cheap Chinese knock-off engraving machine to a class, and it was met with a VERY jaundiced eye by the instructor.... until he used it.  He found it was actually superior to the badly overpriced American made machine (it was a copy of).  To his amazement, the Chinese version had added refinements which allowed for better control of the "hammer strikes".  In a humorous sense of "reverse justice", the American machine has now incorporated many features of the Chinese clone into their American product (and, of course, raised their price even more).  I normally buy American, but at the time of purchase the Chinese Pneumatic engraver was around $500, and the American one was over $2000. I do also have the hand gravers and hammers too, but mostly out of nostalgia. 

  Once again, these are only two examples of vanishing skill sets.  There are many more examples.  I also restore antique fountain pens, which was part of the motivation to setting up some machine shop tools.  I cannot go to Walmart and buy a replacement part for a 100 year old Fountain pen. But, considering these old pens were largely made on classical machine shop equipment, most parts can be replicated in the garage. You can buy an Antique pen, which is in poor condition for 15 to 50 bucks, restore it, and have it immediately jump up to 200-500 dollars (depending on the pen, some pens just aren't worth much even when restored).  

Below is an example of a 100 year old Conklin Vines pen, which had the wrong nib when purchased, and a failed ink sac.  It was purchased for about $37 bucks, and then restored.  It is an example of a "flex nib pen" which leaves a wider line when more pressure is applied when writing, but leaves a fine line when little pressure is used. Artists love flex nib pens, and pay a premium for them.  Vintage pens are universally accepted as being the best for this kind of work.


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## C-Bag (Dec 27, 2020)

The more I see the ongoing collision of automation and the death of manual craftsmanship I keep seeing that old Monty Python skit in my head. The one where everybody is Supermen, but can’t fix anything. And the “hero” is Bicycle Repairman!

There are already niches for handmade things and young folks who want only stuff that they know who made it and how it was made. Yet oddly scant interest of people that age to learn those crafts. Maybe this is just a transition period. I mean not that long ago there were not that many who even knew about scraping, much less it being such a big deal.


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## Aaron_W (Dec 27, 2020)

addertooth said:


> There are several old "craftsman occupations" that have had critical shortages for decades. The shortages in these professions have only become more dire with time.



I recently bought a 1942 printing of "Shop Theory" from the Henry Ford Trade School. Out of curiosity I looked up the school (it closed in the 1950s). Henry Ford started the school in 1916 because he was concerned young people were no longer learning how to work with their hands. I would say you are right that this has been an issue for decades. I know it has been talked about my entire life, and apparently a concern more than 100 years ago.


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## Packard V8 (Dec 27, 2020)

Random thoughts:

The reason it's so difficult to find skilled tradesmen to do home repairs is those considering the trade soon learned they would have to deal with homeowners and/or landlords who want it done on a weekend or the middle of the night, but want to wait for a bill to be sent and then pay by credit card or not at all.

It costs a minimum of $100 just to answer the phone and show up in the driveway with a few tools and the most likely materials.  Anything done after that is time and materials, but the homeowner only wants the clock to start when the tradesman walks through the door and then only at minimum wage and the cheapest internet parts price he can search up.

Brain patterns of young people are just programmed differently today.  They didn't grow up playing outside and using their hands.  Back in the early 1960s, Marshall McLuhnan explained that it's not what the video game is about, but the act of being in/on the blue screen for hours on end has programmed their brains to bypass the external world and crave continual stimulation.  Just fixing things or making things is impossibly slow and boring.



> The medium is the message. This is merely to say that the personal and social consequences of any medium - that is, of any extension of ourselves - result from the new scale that is introduced into our affairs by each extension of ourselves, or by any new technology.



jack vines


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## Dhal22 (Dec 27, 2020)

More like $150+ for a plumber to show up at your door.   That doesn't include the fact that we may not get the job.  Or have the materials   Then we gotta buy materials and make a profit.


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## visenfile (Dec 29, 2020)

Long time ago (1960's) I had a friend who was an accountant.  When he retired he became a handyman to the upscale neighborhoods around San Diego,  I guess he was a "white collar" handyman.  Business was so good he eventually quit due to the backlog and demands.  So can a franchise be created?  Seems like it could be in view of how the basic business of food prep has been exploited.  Not by me, but perhaps someone.

I have offered tradesmen $50 often to just make a 15 mile trip to bid, and I have offered $50 after their "no bid" visit.  Most refuse because they have provided for quoting effort in their operating costs.  I once sent $50 to an outfit who bid on driveway repair because I wanted to maintain a link for future business.  The check was returned.  Local signs (driven to ground) for driveway repair included telephone numbers .  No reply after phoning.  This reminds me of monopolistic behavior like Parisian real estate or babysitters where access is a solemn secret and hoarded .  I guess there is also a sense of power  there probably whetted by economic factors.  Blah blah blah,,,enough already.


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## ericc (Dec 30, 2020)

I hate paying the high prices.  I am not talking about minimum wage.  This is not even 10X minimum wage.  These guys ask for a lot of money.  I once asked what I would get paid if I just waltzed in to do the job.  The reply was "$15 per hour, loser!"  Where are these $100 to $600 per hour rates coming from, then?  That is just too high.


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## kb58 (Dec 30, 2020)

addertooth said:


> ... and fully embrace the concept that a minimum wage job should pay enough to buy a house and a new car.


A friend, back when he was a teenager, worked in a grocery store, and at one point, everyone went on strike except him. He said he ended up in a loud argument with his coworkers about their reasons for striking; them pointing out that they can't make a living at it; him pointing out that jobs like theirs were never were intended to support a family, pay a mortgage, and make car payments. I agree - they're a "bridge job", where you work there as you make your way through school, on to something better. Probably only a matter of time before we here this same "reasoning" from McDonald's workers. Sadly, I think this comes from the sense of entitlement that many young Americans have, that the world owes them a house and BMW, regardless what line of work they choose, if any.


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## addertooth (Dec 30, 2020)

I tend to apply the "rule of tool cost" on many repairs.  If the cost of the tools (to perform the job) is less than the cost of paying someone else to do it, I tend to buy the needed tools, and do the job myself.  It has also funded me upgrading my tools many times in my life. For jobs which show up periodically (fixing drippy faucets, electrical, vehicular problems), I only have to buy the tool once, and reap the rewards for the rest of my life.

On the plus side, I usually perform the job to a higher standard than they guy who claims to make their living doing it.  Caring enough to sweat the details is important to the outcome.


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## kb58 (Dec 30, 2020)

addertooth said:


> I tend to apply the "rule of tool cost" on many repairs.  If the cost of the tools (to perform the job) is less than the cost of paying someone else to do it, I tend to buy the needed tools, and do the job myself...


Same here. About 30 yrs ago, the timing belt on one of our cars broke, and the repair estimate at the time was around $1000. So I spent around $800 on tools, did it myself, and still have them all. A great investment.

That said, we have a tree that needs to be removed, and while I could do it myself, I also consider the cost of falling out of said tree, and the trouble and expense of dealing with ~2000 lbs of green wood. The wife saying "hire someone" may win out, this time.


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## Aaron_W (Dec 30, 2020)

ericc said:


> I hate paying the high prices.  I am not talking about minimum wage.  This is not even 10X minimum wage.  These guys ask for a lot of money.  I once asked what I would get paid if I just waltzed in to do the job.  The reply was "$15 per hour, loser!"  Where are these $100 to $600 per hour rates coming from, then?  That is just too high.



Other costs of business, but yeah, there often does seem to be quite a large discrepancy between what you pay, and what the guy doing the job gets paid. Nothing new here though lots of articles showing the growing pay gulf between the workers and upper management.


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## mmcmdl (Dec 30, 2020)

kb58 said:


> That said, we have a tree that needs to be removed, and while I could do it myself, I also consider the cost of falling out of said tree, and the trouble and expense of dealing with ~2000 lbs of green wood. The wife saying "hire someone" may win out, this time.



I've got 3 grand wrapped up into a pine tree over the past 3 months . Only $300 went out to the guy that dropped it properly in the back yard with no damage to anything . He also ground the stump out . The remaining costs were for a 3 ft Husky 395XP saw and new log splitter . I see that as an investment because I definitely will use them up on the wooded 45 acres . I now have 3 years worth of bonfire wood also .


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## NRP (Jan 1, 2021)

mmcmdl said:


> My buddy just retired from McCormick spice at 62 YO and makes out quite well on that website . There's more work out there than you can shake a stick at .  I'm on the fence about retiring this April , I need a small nudge .



If you can afford it, do it.  I cannot count the amount of times guys I worked with were on the fence about retiring until they did it.  After that, they only talked about how they should have done it sooner.  The only people I know that work for much longer than they have to are the ones that do not want to be at home.  If you have worked for many years, it is a big change.  However, it will be a change for the better.  If you need more of a nudge, let me know.


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