# So who thinks they will be driving electric in 10 years?



## graham-xrf (Oct 15, 2019)

Looking at the prices, maybe not me! My car is a "middle of the range" Mercedes 2.1 litre 140HP diesel estate car from 2006. It goes like on the day I got it, and it's the best car I ever owned. BUT - even with it's high efficiency low emissions tech with catalytic converter, it's still an ageing diesel, a definite no-no here in UK.

I have experienced a fully loaded Tesla model S in "ludicrous mode" from standstill to 60mph in about 3.5 seconds, taking on the Basingstoke Ring Road while driver did not have his hands on the steering wheel. The same car navigated itself to a charging station while playing 70's and 80's rock ballads from Spotify, and booked a dinner table at a pub just by speaking at it!

For the money, ($=outrageous), the owner never has to pay for a charge again. For the money, I would have expected a more supercar finish inside. The Jaguar I-Pace and F-Pace seem better. Then there is the whole host of 2019 me-toos, all thumping the green tub. Unless somebody knows for sure that his cramped, tiny wheels, garish coloured ugly little campaign for a greener life used electricity that was guaranteed to came from a windmill, I a going to count it as a fossil-burning phony!

Here in UK, in the future, there will not be any new petrol cars made after 2040, and the move is to bring the date forward.

Its the price, the prices! However much one would like to tap into the AI driver-assisted Jaguar, Mercedes, Tesla, BMW, A-List life, I can't see it as something I would ever have the means to join in and get used to.


----------



## vtcnc (Oct 15, 2019)

When  IF the prices get to an affordable family budget friendly level, I'm in.


----------



## dirty tools (Oct 15, 2019)

No way
i will keep my diesels


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 15, 2019)

I'm in one now but it was a huge departure from how cheap I usually am with cars and a stretch to the budget.  I get annoyed (I'm easily annoyed) when I drive our gas car now.  You have to START the engine?  What?   

I do think they will become more affordable.  There is lots of battery research going on that is bound to result in lower weight, cost, higher range etc. and once real production volumes exist the overall build costs will come down and more competition will tend to lower prices.  It happens with most any technology that survives.   My wild guess is that in 10 years that maybe 25-30% of families will have one.  Probably many more in 20 years once people get used to them and a couple of car purchase cycles have passed by.   

I think the model S with will do 0-60 in 2.9 sec.   The normal model S (2 motors) will do it in about 3.2 sec.  Good "clean" fun!

There are good arguments against electric being a cure-all to energy usage and pollution.   There is no simple solution that exists today that cures our fossil fuel dependence so I'll keep that Cheveron stock for now.  These make more sense in places where there is hydro-electric, where you can charge off of solar or with some other clean source.  It makes less sense if the energy comes from coal or oil-fired generation though.


----------



## rwm (Oct 15, 2019)

I think in 10 years a lot of people will not be driving at all. The electric cars will do all the driving. I would have one now if the range was a little better.
Robert


----------



## Superburban (Oct 15, 2019)

I drive an 85 Dodge pickup I have had since 87 or so. Its from the era, where the same parts were used for many years, so many parts are still available. I have no intentions of dumping it any time soon. Compare that to my Mothers 2017 Pacifica, and many of the parts are one or two year, one application only. So 10 years from now, how easy will it be to get an axle shaft, wheel hub, caliper, what ever. That car, when the warranty is over, will likely go. And I will likely still have the 85 as my daily driver, with two 77's for backups. One of the realities of being an disabled vet, is all the financial plans I once had, are just a dream from long ago. The closest thing I will see to electric, is my 70's Era golf cart.

With all the specialty parts, such as the LED lights, sensors, computers, door motors, locks, glass, ect. I do not see the used car market being as big as it is now. It will be new, lease, or the city bus.


----------



## jbolt (Oct 15, 2019)

I'm on board with electric when they are on par with price, performance, range and cost of a gasser and recharge in 30 min or less. 

Of course here in California an all electric may not make sense when PG&E turns the power off every time the wind blows.


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 15, 2019)

Superburban said:


> I drive an 85 Dodge pickup I have had since 87 or so. Its from the era, where the same parts were used for many years, so many parts are still available. I have no intentions of dumping it any time soon.


Superburban: You have it right. I know they now count the energy cost of production as part of it's "sin", but consider..
Suppose some diligent dude kept riding his 1947 truck, or 1975 Jeep Cherokee even, but carefully enough to not be tearing up parts. Maintained, that vehicle still running today owes the planet less than planned obsolescence culture modern piles of plastic! Putting the steel back into the furnace every 7-15 years is not so good!


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 15, 2019)

Reddinr said:


> I think the model S with will do 0-60 in 2.9 sec.   The normal model S (2 motors) will do it in about 3.2 sec.  Good "clean" fun!


Reddinr: The one I was taking a ride in had the 2 motors. Driver pal was showing me the big screen goodies. I tucked in because I expected it would be fast. Guys in the back were chatting, one turned sideways, and had no idea what was about to happen. It was (relative) chaos. It may have been close to 3 seconds. I was "counting Mississippi(s)". The guys took me to an air show event, where, as it happened, there was a line of wall-to-wall Teslas! Clearly more folk are using electric.




When I think about all the cars that come out onto the roads every morning. Even with a conservative estimation, say the journey might be 1/2 hour or so, using (say) 70% of the (140hp). 47kW.h of energy, and as much again on the way back. I am not sure the electrical grid can supply all that energy displaced from burning fuel in engines. OK, you can't charge up in 5 minutes (yet). This for 1 vehicle! You are right in that the battery technology will get better, and we will find a way to get an overnight charge to the cars parked out on the street (not everybody has a house with a driveway).

Last count for a year period, UK had 20% energy from renewables, and managed 30% during a week in 2018. Also in April 2018, UK ran for 3 days in a row without burning coal. OK - so it was run on a mix of natural gas and nuclear + wind-farms etc.


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 15, 2019)

Speaking of older trucks, I had an 87 Ford F250 long bed 4WD up until last December, <60000 miles and so reliable. So easy to work on if needed. Some A** in an Escalade blew through a stop sign right in front of me. No chance to stop at all. They got tossed pretty good and ALL of their air bags inflated. They were thrown into a chevy truck that pummeled the other side. Luckily no one was seriously hurt. I put the truck in reverse and parked on the roadside to clear the intersection for the fire department. Engine still ran and I think I could have driven it home as long as I stopped to pick up loose body parts now and then. It was totaled though.  I still miss my truck.


----------



## MikeInOr (Oct 15, 2019)

My entire life I have never paid more than $20K for a vehicle and I have only purchased 1 vehicle from a dealer.  Not only do electric vehicles have to be available but they have to be available long enough to trickle down to cheap skates like me.

I bought my 2010 Lexus RX hybrid w 76K about 3 years ago and still love it.  My biggest concern was the battery going bad so I did my research first and found that there are a variety of rebuilt batteries available for reasonable prices (They remove only the bad cells and replace them with new cells.  The more cells that are on the border line that they replace is reflected in the cost of the rebuilt battery).  No way would I ever pay for a new Lexus... new cars just don't make sense to me.  I would have a hard time going back to a non-hybrid after having driven a hybrid though.  My guess is electrics will be similar.  I imagine the day in which we change a power cell in our vehicles will be much like changing the batteries in our tv remotes today.

It is really hard to ever conceive of a time in which I am willing to give up my 2006 4 door Duramax though!  It was a huge upgrade from my 67 F100 that I was sad to let go but have moved on and don't miss it anymore.

My guess is that as us old folk die off our old ways will die off with us and the younger folk will be more open minded about vehicles than we are.


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 15, 2019)

I'm all about keeping a car for as long as possible unless it was a mistake or lemon.   It just makes sense to not waste all those materials only to get in debt again for a shiny new finish.  I hope to keep my electric for a good long time. 

I took my neighbor and friend out to lunch because he helped me out with a project.  He's a motor-head with some 70's muscle cars that are his pride and joy.  Most definitely a skeptic of electrics.  I let him test drive my car and bet him $1 that he would either smile or exclaim something when he hit the pedal.  One "holy sh**" later and I was $1 richer.  So, it's not all about the green-ness!

I don't know where all the electricity will come from either.  I think nuclear is still a good option if implemented right but I don't think most of the public thinks that way.  It is costly to build.


----------



## pdentrem (Oct 15, 2019)

I looked at EV but 6 months ago I settled on 2019 Camry Hybrid. I tend to drive longer distances and charging stations are  not common in rural areas yet. The previous car was ‘07 Cobalt SS. No longer have to buy premium gas and a 20% increase on hiway and a huge jump for city, makes me pretty happy.
I did purchase an extended warranty from Toyota as this car is going to be a lot hard for me to repair, unlike all my previous cars.
Now I need a project car, saw a 1936 Chrysler coupe the other day, humm !
Pierre


----------



## MikeInOr (Oct 15, 2019)

Reddinr said:


> I don't know where all the electricity will come from either.  I think nuclear is still a good option if implemented right but I don't think most of the public thinks that way.  It is costly to build.



My 13 year old daughter (not having lived through the nuclear protests of the 80's) is very pro nuc.  Too bad the Nuclear technology isn't being implemented as quickly as battery technology but there are good things to come.  One of my daughters and my favorite Nuclear technologies is the Salt cooled reactors built to run on our current nuclear waste.

https://www.fastcompany.com/3043099/this-nuclear-reactor-eats-nuclear-waste

Molten salts (not molten table salt) are very corrosive.  Nuclear waste reactors could be built and functional today... the problem appears to be with our current material science.  The molten salts waste reactors have a very limited life expectancy (around a decade I believe) before they have to be torn apart and rebuilt.  As better high temperature corrosion resistant materials are developed the life expectancy of these reactors will continue to increase until they reach a feasible level.

My daughter and I watched a very interesting PBS special on where Fukushima is today.  The Japanese are committed to a complete clean up of the entire site... not just pouring a concrete sarcophagus  over it like at Chernobyl (at which the concrete tomb is currently failing).


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 15, 2019)

MikeInOr said:


> My 13 year old daughter (not having lived through the nuclear protests of the 80's) is very pro nuc.  Too bad the Nuclear technology isn't being implemented as quickly as battery technology but there are good things to come.  One of my daughters and my favorite Nuclear technologies is the Salt cooled reactors built to run on our current nuclear waste.
> 
> https://www.fastcompany.com/3043099/this-nuclear-reactor-eats-nuclear-waste
> 
> ...




Thanks for the fastcompany.com link.  I'll have to read it later today.


----------



## MikeInOr (Oct 15, 2019)

pdentrem said:


> I looked at EV but 6 months ago I settled on 2019 Camry Hybrid. I tend to drive longer distances and charging stations are  not common in rural areas yet. The previous car was ‘07 Cobalt SS. No longer have to buy premium gas and a 20% increase on hiway and a huge jump for city, makes me pretty happy.
> I did purchase an extended warranty from Toyota as this car is going to be a lot hard for me to repair, unlike all my previous cars.
> Now I need a project car, saw a 1936 Chrysler coupe the other day, humm !
> Pierre



You got to love Toyota's Atkins cycle engine... the power stroke is longer than the compression stroke so it extracts more power out of the combusting fuel.  The direct injection (like a diesel, fuel is injected directly into the cylinder when needed instead of injected into the intake manifold and drawn into the cylinder with the air) is what allows it to run on low octane fuel without pre-detonation.  Like you I went from a hi-octane Nissan V6 to a low octane Toyota hybrid and love it... mine is still a V6 which I love! 

I feel the hybrids have matured enough that I am not afraid of owning one.  The full electric vehicles will get there some day.


----------



## NCjeeper (Oct 15, 2019)

No thanks. Hard to beat that rumble of a gas guzzling V8. Plus who would want to drive an electric 1955 Chevy Belair? Yuck.


----------



## savarin (Oct 15, 2019)

Civilisations need for electricity is always increasing and barring a major catastrophe to drastically lower the population probably always will unless a major new discovery replaces it such as home fusion devices or similar.
Personally I would like to see small scale modern nuclear power plants in a distributed network alongside renewables.
Nuclear gives us the instant on demand generating system (which fossil fuels cant) for when the renewables cant cope but with half of all voters falling on the left hand side of the bell curve it wont happen.
Personaly I would drive electric tomorow if the price was right.
I believe its Norway who have removed all govt taxes on electric vehicle to make them more affordable.
Considering the exponential increase in computing power towards AI in recent years I dont think any of us will be driving anything soon and with the number of total nut jobs on our roads it cant come soon enough.
Before electric cars are dismissed just think how many buggy whip manufacturers there are out there.


----------



## pdentrem (Oct 15, 2019)

Even in the buggy whip days, they were dealing with the future. Jay Leno has a Baker!









						Baker Motor Vehicle - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## westerner (Oct 15, 2019)

Reddinr said:


> There is no simple solution that exists today



 This is the crux of the biscuit. I am in the "Fleet" business.  The EV game has so many variables that it is nearly impossible to gather consensus on how to proceed. I have spent a considerable time in research. What I have gleaned is this- Lithium-Ion has too many detriments to be viable for the future. The mining of raw materials is NOT friendly, earth or humanity based. Without functionable safeguards, these batteries can burn down an AIRLINER No reasonable alternative currently exists, that any NORMAL human can afford. Yet Elon and his competitors continue to ramp expectations, and capital to expand.
I will continue to source parts for my ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) rigs, and will continue to educate the kids on proper maintenance.


----------



## Winegrower (Oct 15, 2019)

I will not purchase another internal combustion vehicle.


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 15, 2019)

I've wanted a electric car since I saw an all electric VW bug at a fair in '79. 

Jay Leno also drives a Tesla and before that his daily driver was a version 1 Chevy Volt. Check out Jays vid the little ol Lady from Pasadena where he drag races her in a Tesla S and Jay is in his 800hp Cobra 429. The Tesla blows the doors off Cobra by a length or two.

Because Jay's driver was a Volt( I was blown away by that), when the wife's Benz started to scare me with the prospect of looming repairs and I couldn't figure out what to buy, we went down to check out a Benz B-Class. The local dealer(sells GM & Benz) having never hear of a B-Class. Seems Benz bought a big share of Tesla and the B-Class is all Tesla running gear. We had to walk by 4 brand new Volts, version 2. The salespeople were worthless, I knew more than they did which wasn't much. The Volt isn't you usual hybrid, it's a true plug in hybrid. The first 50-60mi is electric until the battery gets down to a certain point then the engine kicks in seamlessly and it's your usual hybrid. We also bough a solar array. My wife has a 30mi daily commute so the car goes to work and back on a charge. it has a 8gal tank and last tank we went 3,200mi before filling up. Over the lifetime of the car(we now have 53,000mi) it has averaged 156mi per gal. Because over 80% of the time it's on just electric it only on its second oil change. Because of the regen braking the pads and rotors still look new. As a confirmed Luddite it does concern me driving such a tech heavy car but so far it's been glitch free and most of all maintence free and love driving by gas stations. Never was one for loud so I love the quiet on electric. And it gets right with the program when you stomp on it. The only reason electric's are expensive is because they don't yet have the economy of scale.


----------



## MikeInOr (Oct 15, 2019)

westerner said:


> This is the crux of the biscuit. I am in the "Fleet" business.  The EV game has so many variables that it is nearly impossible to gather consensus on how to proceed. I have spent a considerable time in research. What I have gleaned is this- Lithium-Ion has too many detriments to be viable for the future. The mining of raw materials is NOT friendly, earth or humanity based. Without functionable safeguards, these batteries can burn down an AIRLINER No reasonable alternative currently exists, that any NORMAL human can afford. Yet Elon and his competitors continue to ramp expectations, and capital to expand.
> I will continue to source parts for my ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) rigs, and will continue to educate the kids on proper maintenance.



While many hybrid cars use Lithium ion batteries my Toyota hybrid uses Nickle metal hydride batteries instead of Lion batteries.  A lot of research is going into boosting the power density of NiMH batteries to make them more capable for EV's.  I use NiMH batteries for my Dewalt 18v tools... there is no way you would get me to switch to the Dewalt 20v Lion tools! My first set of cheap after market Dewalt 18v compatible NiMH batteries are about 4 years old now... I have NEVER run out of juice!  They certainly do not seem to be loosing any capacity!

I agree that EV technology is still young and has a good ways to go before it is going to take over as our primary vehicle propulsion method... but it is gaining ground every day.

I looked at EV's when I purchased my hybrid... but like you said they are not mature enough to get my money... yet!  I believe some day they will be and look forwards to that day rather than fear that day.



C-Bag said:


> I've wanted a electric car since I saw an all electric VW bug at a fair in '79.
> 
> Jay Leno also drives a Tesla and before that his daily driver was a version 1 Chevy Volt. Check out Jays vid the little ol Lady from Pasadena where he drag races her in a Tesla S and Jay is in his 800hp Cobra 429. The Tesla blows the doors off Cobra by a length or two.
> 
> Because Jay's driver was a Volt( I was blown away by that), when the wife's Benz started to scare me with the prospect of looming repairs and I couldn't figure out what to buy, we went down to check out a Benz B-Class. The local dealer(sells GM & Benz) having never hear of a B-Class. Seems Benz bought a big share of Tesla and the B-Class is all Tesla running gear. We had to walk by 4 brand new Volts, version 2. The salespeople were worthless, I knew more than they did which wasn't much. The Volt isn't you usual hybrid, it's a true plug in hybrid. The first 50-60mi is electric until the battery gets down to a certain point then the engine kicks in seamlessly and it's your usual hybrid. We also bough a solar array. My wife has a 30mi daily commute so the car goes to work and back on a charge. it has a 8gal tank and last tank we went 3,200mi before filling up. Over the lifetime of the car(we now have 53,000mi) it has averaged 156mi per gal. Because over 80% of the time it's on just electric it only on its second oil change. Because of the regen braking the pads and rotors still look new. As a confirmed Luddite it does concern me driving such a tech heavy car but so far it's been glitch free and most of all maintence free and love driving by gas stations. Never was one for loud so I love the quiet on electric. And it gets right with the program when you stomp on it. The only reason electric's are expensive is because they don't yet have the economy of scale.



Economy of scale will help a lot, so will advances in battery technology.

Did you buy the Benz B-Class?  My sister (down in CA of course) leased one for a couple years.  My niece was only stranded twice due to not allocating enough time for a full charge.  They had to call a tow truck and pay the towing bill.  I like that Tesla promises to take care of towing in the event of a discharged battery.

P.S. I can't stand car salesmen.  Completely worthless in my experience.


----------



## Ulma Doctor (Oct 15, 2019)

NEVER ! i don't care if they were giving them out.

unless we get real good at hazardous waste recycling we are going to have millions(or billions) of batteries to dispose of.
our current plan of burying things and pushing the undesirables into the oceans, has its limits.

current (over)regulation, especially here in lala land CA, we mandate clean burning vehicles and penalize drivers who would dare bring a vehicle from out of state into this grand utopia (choking on sarcasm here).

why would we need to raise the price of electricity? because that's what's coming next if this scam takes hold-
we WILL get unintended consequences by our desire to flex our arrogance and ignorance

they are predicting 70 billion in lithium battery sales by 2020, but less than 5% of lithium batteries are recycled
WE HAVE A HUGE PROBLEM COMING SOON


----------



## matthewsx (Oct 15, 2019)

I took a Model S for a test drive.

Yes, I want one. Maybe next year....


----------



## Jubil (Oct 15, 2019)

I for one will stick with internal combustion, partly because I've spent 46 years drilling for the black gold. And it fed my family well enough. 

But I do think electric cars are the best alternative to fossil fuel powered ones. But I also think they have a long way to go before they can be a better choice altogether, ie batteries, charging, and power generation. Like others above have already stated. 

If the change over came as quick as some would like, there would be an awful lot of people out of work. And the world economy would be somewhat different.

Just my $0.02 worth.
Chuck


----------



## MikeInOr (Oct 15, 2019)

Ulma Doctor said:


> they are predicting 70 billion in lithium battery sales by 2020, but less than 5% of lithium batteries are recycled
> WE HAVE A HUGE PROBLEM COMING SOON



I use Lion batteries in several applications... flash lights, camera flashes, cell phones (I won't buy a cell phone without a user changeable battery), etc.

In case some members do not know *Home Depot, Lowes and Batteries Plus all have battery recycling drop boxes* (locally they are right in the first door of the store entrance).  They have another box for compact florescent bulbs.  I had to drive an hour away to find a place to take my Florescent shop light tubes.  I love the replacement LED tubes!... brighter and also silent!

P.S. I you want to know the best brand and model of 18650 Lion battery to use for your flashlight... ask a vap-er.


----------



## Norseman C.B. (Oct 15, 2019)

There is always the fact that internal combustion engines can be run on water, the guy here in Oregon
who figured out how to do it and was nearly at marketing stage with his injector converter to hydrogen
was mysteriously killed before he* could* market it  !!!
If the *right* people don't profit it won't happen !!  Unfortunately, that's the way it is.................


----------



## MarkDavis (Oct 15, 2019)

I might consider an electric, if window defrost and cabin heat was not vital to travel.

Maybe a gas heater like the old Volkswagens.


----------



## MontanaLon (Oct 15, 2019)

The larger issue here is who won't be driving an electric vehicle and the answer to that is "most of us". It is simple supply of the current battery raw materials which will limit the number of electric cars on the road. For instance each Tesla has about 50 pounds of lithium in the battery. World production of lithium per year is currently 160,000 tons which would limit the number of vehicles produced with lithium batteries to 640,000 per year. That is less than 10% of vehicles sold new in the USA each year.

Further, current reserves of lithium in the ground are around 15 million tons. Which would limit the number of vehicles using batteries with lithium to 600 million. That would cover the US and a good chunk of the rest of the world but would leave 400 million current vehicle owners without a vehicle. 

Of course as demand goes up mining companies will find more lithium deposits to be mined but it is highly likely that those deposits will be far harder to extract than the current proven reserves. Prices will increase accordingly. And that says nothing of the environmental damage done over the years by the production and use of lithium. In my lifetime we have gone from using lead in everything from paint to fuel to limiting the uses and shutting down production within the US. I suspect shortly after lithium is mandated to be used to power all cars it will be attacked much in the same way as fossil fuels have been as bringing about the "end of the world" and the production and use will be severely curtailed and probably taxed radically to deter its' use. 

Then there is the issue of generating the electricity to charge all those cars. It will take construction of power plants which 99% of will use fossil fuels and 1% will be renewable. There won't be any nuclear because 3 mile island.

I will stop before I get political and end by saying that no matter what, someone will always want humans to have zero footprint on the planet, yet they have a footprint on the planet.


----------



## MikeInOr (Oct 16, 2019)

MontanaLon said:


> The larger issue here is who won't be driving an electric vehicle and the answer to that is "most of us". It is simple supply of the current battery raw materials which will limit the number of electric cars on the road. For instance each Tesla has about 50 pounds of lithium in the battery. World production of lithium per year is currently 160,000 tons which would limit the number of vehicles produced with lithium batteries to 640,000 per year. That is less than 10% of vehicles sold new in the USA each year.
> 
> Further, current reserves of lithium in the ground are around 15 million tons. Which would limit the number of vehicles using batteries with lithium to 600 million. That would cover the US and a good chunk of the rest of the world but would leave 400 million current vehicle owners without a vehicle.
> 
> ...



I don't believe the assumption that the production lithium is always going to be a limiting factor in electric vehicle construction is a valid assumption.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...s-energy-density-can-rise-10-fold-researchers

I think Nickle makes up something like 10% of the earths core... second only to iron as the earths most abundant element.


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 16, 2019)

MikeInOr said:


> While many hybrid cars use Lithium ion batteries my Toyota hybrid uses Nickle metal hydride batteries instead of Lion batteries.  A lot of research is going into boosting the power density of NiMH batteries to make them more capable for EV's.  I use NiMH batteries for my Dewalt 18v tools... there is no way you would get me to switch to the Dewalt 20v Lion tools! My first set of cheap after market Dewalt 18v compatible NiMH batteries are about 4 years old now... I have NEVER run out of juice!  They certainly do not seem to be loosing any capacity!
> 
> I agree that EV technology is still young and has a good ways to go before it is going to take over as our primary vehicle propulsion method... but it is gaining ground every day.
> 
> ...


Nope, didn't buy the B-Class, bought the Volt. In 50yrs of driving and lots of cars my first American car. I'm not sure they make the B-Class anymore and GM has threatened again to drop the Volt. This was the first American car I was impressed  enough to buy and if GM drops the Volt I'll drop GM. It's not personal, it's just business as the CEO's like to say.


----------



## savarin (Oct 16, 2019)

I cant wait for the end of infernal consumption engines.
noisy and smelly


----------



## Superburban (Oct 16, 2019)

Aren't the electric vehicles still subsidized, or tax credits, which is coming to an end soon? Also, how long until the states figure they are loosing too much fuel tax, and go to a mile driven tax? its been in the discussion for awhile now.
 As the electric vehicles numbers increase,I think you will see the cost of ownership go up. I would be interested in seeing what the cost per mile is, when the electric cost is factored in.


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 16, 2019)

Norseman C.B. said:


> There is always the fact that internal combustion engines can be run on water, the guy here in Oregon
> who figured out how to do it and was nearly at marketing stage with his injector converter to hydrogen
> was mysteriously killed before he* could* market it  !!!
> If the *right* people don't profit it won't happen !!  Unfortunately, that's the way it is.................


Hee Hee. I like it!
Water is the very "ash" of the energy that the fuel gave up. Water is the very stable stuff that is left, and it is the very hell to pull those atoms apart again. Our fuel is hydrogen, conveniently held as a potent liquid by being joined to carbon (gasoline etc.) One small can I can easily carry can move my car about 40 miles. Try pushing a car a few yards to appreciate it!  Hydrogen is the single most postive element (for it's size) at the extreme left top of the periodic table. Oxygen, except for Fluorine is about the most negative down at the bottom right. They combine together explosively (car engine) and yield the energy. We can tear them apart again by putting back the energy, and make fuel again.

Anyone who tells you water is a fuel - umm - what can I say? He is likely wrong! It is not any kind of "fact" that engines can be run on water. If that were true, the millions of smart folk on the internet would have acknowledged it by now! Water injection, or water-methanol injection does assist the combustion control of temperatures, and efficiency, but is not "water as a fuel". These were much researched up to and through WW2 for aircraft engines.


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 16, 2019)

We've been subsidizing the oil industry to the tune of billions for decades , not to mention tax cuts meanwhile they make the biggest profits in the history of the world. Let them have oil rights on public lands for basically nothing. Let them destroy the Gulf and countless other ecosystems like Alaska (Exxon Valdez) and walk away for the US taxpayers through super fund boondoggles pick up the tab. From its very inseption when standard oil dumped gasoline in the Hudson River at night because they didn't have a use for it until the auto industry came along, to the buy up and destruction of trolley systems across the US it has been an evil alliance between the oil co's and automakers. Not to mention the wars. Gen.Smedly Butler the most decorated Marine talked about making the world safe for Standard Oil in his book War is a Racket and his speech to Congress in '33.


----------



## bakrch (Oct 16, 2019)

I was hoping that my next commuter would be an  EV.

Had a '10 VW TDI that was sold back through the dieselgate scandal. As a result my '17 Tacoma has 120k miles on it already, and I will likely go Corolla Hybrid next as I would like to keep the truck around for as long as possible (2TR-FE 5spd, which was discontinued).   I have a thing for Toyota pickups with 4 bangers, just sold my '94 22RE last year and it was still running great. The rust, however ... just didn't have time to address it.


----------



## Flyinfool (Oct 16, 2019)

We already have adequate power generation in most (not all) parts of the country. Most people will charge at night when most of the factories and big offices are shut down, This will actually smooth out the load on the power plants and allow them to run more efficiently. The problem is in the other end of the power distribution. In an average neighborhood the grid can only handle around 3 or 4 electric cars per city block, a newer neighborhood might handle 5 or 6. Most neighborhoods are not wired to supply that many amps to every house at the same time. It takes a lot of amps to charge one of these cars overnight. And for those that think a car can be charged in 30 minutes........ It is simple math, if the battery in a Telsa S is 375 volts and 90KWh, and you need to charge it to 80% in 30 minutes, that means that you will be pumping in the power at nearly 400 volts and at 640 amps. This is very lethal power levels for home owners to be messing with. Like plugging it in while it is raining or snowing out and everything is wet. Now factor in winter and everything is covered with road salt and wet, road salt in water is very electrically conductive. Now that charger if connected to a 220 volt system, will be pulling over 1,000 amps out of the wall. Most small factories do not have that much power available. People do not consider these type of numbers when they are wanting a faster charge. 

Unless there is some major breakthrough in battery or power generation like finding a good source of dilithium crystals. Electric will not replace IC in my lifetime. It will remain in the category of a second car, or a toy. Cross country travel is totally impractical with any current or proposed form of EV.


----------



## DangerZone (Oct 16, 2019)

I'm a big fan of gas (or diesel) engines. I don't see myself switching anytime soon, and I think people are a little over estimating the timeline on all electric cars as well as self driving. 

The one situation that I see this changing: I am hoping to get as much solar and wind energy set up at my home as possible(this itself isn't cheap and will be several years out), but if I can get enough home produced energy setup, an electric car might be feasible for commuting.


----------



## savarin (Oct 16, 2019)

I was in China this time last year for the first time.
what struck me the most was the phenomenal number of electric scooters and small motorbikes running around.
I didnt see a single petrol powered two wheeler the whole time even though I was looking for one.
Of course this may be due to the ban on IC motorbikes in a lot of cities and the loose regulations on scooters.
Their electric car market is growing in leaps and bounds exceeding the numbers of US electric cars produced.
So in answer to the original question .... yes, we will all be driving electric vehicles in the reasonably close future.


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 16, 2019)

China is also forging ahead with LFTR plants invented by the man who invented the light and heavy water nuclear power plants here in the US. It was funded as a portable nuclear option for the military in Oak Ridge facility. Can't melt down, far simpler than light and heavy reactors and best of all runs on "spent" fuel rods and can refine and reuse until gone. We have a 300yr supply just in what's being stored. He asks "ok if this is so good why isn't it being used?" Because it doesn't produce fissionable material for bombs and "depleted uranium " munitions used in every war since Bosnia in tank and down to ,50cal rounds. You know how much of the fuel rod is used before its called "depleted"? 5-7%. So it's actually 95-93% un depleted.


----------



## Norseman C.B. (Oct 16, 2019)

Water can be used as fuel, just because some limey didn't figure it out doesn't make it unlikely.
periodical tables be damned, the fact is that it can be and was done but the powers that be killed it both literally and figuratively !!


----------



## stioc (Oct 16, 2019)

Solar will definitely help with the charging concerns...at least in places where the sun is abundant I see a lot of solar farms everywhere. Even school and university parking lots are now covered with solar panels around here. As for recycling batteries...necessity is the mother of invention so just as better batteries are now possible, better recycling will also become available which will help in reducing the amount of elements harvested from the earth.

As to OP's questions I think in 10-15 yrs a large majority of cars, at least in the US will be autonomous. I see a handful on my commute already. As much as I've always loved internal combustion engines and have been amazed at the internal workings and how they first were mass produced (compared to an electric motor- which is very boring) unfortunately its days are numbered.


----------



## Norseman C.B. (Oct 16, 2019)

Correction;   The water powered car built by Stanley Meyer was from Ohio not Oregon............
The pattern that I have seen is that whenever some one figures out how to efficiently do some thing that would benefit
people on the whole either gets bought out murdered, or mysteriously dies.............


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 16, 2019)

I agree that the battery recycling infrastructure in the US is very weak and needs improvement.  However, it is not much different than much of our wasteful use of resources.  Singling out batteries as a crisis can make them seem a larger problem relative to all the others.  Everything from plastics to flushed drug residuals have a severe impact on our one and only earth.

Regarding water in its native state as a fuel, that is just not going to happen.  Hydrogen can be a fuel and is part of water (H2O).   Combusting (oxidizing) hydrogen results in water and heat is produced by the reaction.  However, getting the oxygen to let go of the two hydrogen atoms in the first place in order to use the hydrogen as fuel takes a lot of energy.  So, it is at best a zero-sum-game and typically a loss in net usable energy.  Full disclosure, I'm one of those "limey's" that have not figured it out.  Sorry Mr. Norseman, no disrespect but your sources are way off base on this one.

Regarding fast charging at home.  Yeah, no cheap solutions there.  You can slow charge a big bank if batteries or supercapacitors and then dump the energy to the car's battery quickly but those are very expensive solutions and in the case of a big bank of batteries involves more energy loss.  Also, fast charging isn't all that great on the long term health of li-on batteries if you do it all the time.  Regarding charging safety, generally, the charging voltage/current is not turned on by the charger until a few seconds after the car-end connector is plugged in.  There is a safety interlock.  
If the interlock fails... well, don't stick your tongue on the live terminals.


----------



## jbolt (Oct 16, 2019)

While I understand the appeal of EV's I don't think putting all our eggs in the electricity only basket is a great idea. Too much vulnerability relying on a single source of energy and the people who supply it.


----------



## stioc (Oct 16, 2019)

May be not in 10yrs but in 20yrs we won't have a choice. Sort of like the manual transmissions, rare to find it as an option and majority don't want them anymore. In fact, our hands might be forced to buy autonomous cars when the insurance is going to sky rocket for those who want to self-drive cars (will be seen as a safety risk).


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 16, 2019)

stioc - I bet the autonomous car thing will be a slow evolution.  Probably on major highways first, voluntary at first to get people used to it and to trust it.  In its current state, it is not quite there.  In 20-30 years when I might not see that well or react that well autonomous cars will be a godsend.  (Watch out Uber/Lyft/bus drivers.)  For now, though all my semi-autonomous features are turned off (except for adaptive cruise control on long highway trips and bumper to bumper, which is double great...).   I really like to drive and I'm glad I won't need to give that up for a good long time.


----------



## stioc (Oct 16, 2019)

Actually Uber already has a fleet of self-driving cars (Volvo) and they recently announced removing the drivers from them completely. Hyundai just announced $35B investment in self-driving cars. Audi is bring their models. UPS is also using the technology in their long haul semis. So it's quietly spreading and faster than anyone anticipated.


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 16, 2019)

You are right of course.  Which is why my "Uber" comment.  My thinking was about the timeline for non-fleet vehicles.  Several types of problems need to be solved technical, psychological, financial and legal.  Of those, maybe the technical problems are not the most difficult.


----------



## stioc (Oct 16, 2019)

Agreed. Another aspect and this one's personal. I grew up racing cars...I still very much enjoy driving cars and more so in a raw way without all the traction control, VSA etc. However, where I live the traffic has sky rocketed, tons of people here now and driving has become a chore. For me most people drive too slow, and it's not a constant slow it's the slow then fast, then slow then fast...I prefer to go at a constant speed as much as reasonable. The slow/fast usually because people are checking their phones even though it's illegal. Then you have the tailgaters who no matter how fast you're going they just have to be in front of you. So despite my love for driving I'm kind of looking forward to the self-driving cars.. Hopefully with that (and I'm sure this will take time) riding motorcycles will become safer too so may be that's what I'll drive/ride myself in the future


----------



## Reddinr (Oct 16, 2019)

I got a chance to take a car out on a track a few times a few years ago.  My wife (god love her) bought me some days at a driving school which included lots of on-track time.  That is on my top 5 list of thrills of a lifetime.  (Probably more like raw fear to my in-car tutor though, at least at first.)  So, I would miss driving too but you list many of the reasons that highway/road driving can be a real buzz kill.  Another pet peeve is that many people can't seem to handle 4-way intersections with any grace at all.


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 16, 2019)

stioc said:


> Actually Uber already has a fleet of self-driving cars (Volvo) and they recently announced removing the drivers from them completely. Hyundai just announced $35B investment in self-driving cars. Audi is bring their models. UPS is also using the technology in their long haul semis. So it's quietly spreading and faster than anyone anticipated.


Automation is here, it's not in the far flung future. The speed of change is going a lot faster than most can comprehend. In a great interview with Joe Rogan Andrew Yang totally laid it out. Long haul truckers have a target on them and they don't even know it. There's not enough people who want to drive a truck and those that are driving now are aging out. I truly don't know if we're all going to be driving or it will all be automated Uber's that get us around it's way to early to tell. 
We went this route because there were tax incentives, we needed a new car and I've always wanted one. But Tesla was too much, and the Leaf to little. Even in the Bay Area it can be hard to find a charging station much less the boonies where we are. But the 50mi electric range is surprisingly good for our needs and doesn't cause a load problem because it's 220v single phase with no provision I know of for fast charge. As it is it charges in 4hrs if completely out and is set to start charging after 11pm when the rates go down. Bottom line I don't feel like I've sacrificed anything and it's fun to drive. My next wish list is a battery like a Tesla powerwall so I don't feel so cheated like when they had a transformer failure that only effected 400 of us for 48hrs. All while my solar was worthless because no battery backup.


----------



## westerner (Oct 16, 2019)

MontanaLon said:


> I will stop before I get political and end by saying that no matter what, someone will always want humans to have zero footprint on the planet, yet they have a footprint on the planet.


Yup. As I stated above, and has been said several times in this thread- Battery technology lags behind demand for it. When that one genius finally gets it right, he will be the modern Rockefeller, or Carnegie, or Gates. Until then every thing will be a well-marketed band-aid.


----------



## savarin (Oct 16, 2019)

My solar feeds back into the grid at 44c a Kw. 
This will be ending soon so a major upgrade in the size of my solar and a battery wall is on the cards in the very close future.
Weve always had solar hot water and that saves a heap.


----------



## The Model A Guy (Oct 16, 2019)

Ill be going electric !!!


----------



## tweinke (Oct 16, 2019)

Well I think electric will be here sooner than later. Keep your eyes open Ford is preparing to launch several EVs. Sounds like a Mustang will be first.


----------



## ttabbal (Oct 17, 2019)

I've been driving EV for a year now. For what I'm doing with it, mostly commuting with <50 mile round trips, it's great. I started out charging mostly at home with a level 2 charger. 240V 40A. That will charge my leaf from the daily drive in about 2 hours. A little more for full drain, but it doesn't matter as I charge when a gas car would be sitting anyway. It's no more or less convenient that way. Though never having to stop for gas is nice. These days, I can usually charge for a half day at work, there are 6 charges, but 10 cars, so we swap out. I can go weeks using power entirely from work that they offer for free. 

I get a little over 4 miles / kwh. 1kwh is about $0.11 here, though it's tiered as it is most places. 

Nobody at home is going to have a fast charger anytime soon. The power lines required are stupidly huge and expensive. The level 2 is about where it's at for home use. That is about as much as an electric clothing dryer or oven will draw. It's not a huge drain on the grid, some people's A/C units use more power than the L2 chargers. The Leaf and most EVs also have a charge timer so if you have lower overnight rates you can use that to take advantage. Some chargers can be set that way as well. If everyone had one, I suspect there would be a setup available like the devices where the power company can control your A/C unit to smooth the load out. So they could stagger the start times for everyone's charge. We all have 100% in the morning, but start an hour or two later. 

Fast chargers are more common than you would think at this stage. I have an app on my phone that lists where they can be found. Those can charge my car to 80% in 30 minutes. They cost more, but if you're in a hurry, they are nice. Tesla fast chargers are common even here in Utah. I do wish they would all use a single standard like the L1/L2 chargers though. 

EV isn't there yet for every possible use case. I think most people that have a vehicle mostly for commuting could use one if they wanted to, but there are a lot of situations it doesn't work as well for. Given how fast the technology for batteries has improved, 10 years could fill those gaps, but one never knows. I know everyone thinks of golf carts, but they really are decently fun to drive, though with some differences from ICE cars. Worth a look.


----------



## bpimm (Oct 17, 2019)

Superburban said:


> I drive an 85 Dodge pickup I have had since 87 or so. Its from the era, where the same parts were used for many years, so many parts are still available. I have no intentions of dumping it any time soon. Compare that to my Mothers 2017 Pacifica, and many of the parts are one or two year, one application only. So 10 years from now, how easy will it be to get an axle shaft, wheel hub, caliper, what ever. That car, when the warranty is over, will likely go. And I will likely still have the 85 as my daily driver, with two 77's for backups. One of the realities of being an disabled vet, is all the financial plans I once had, are just a dream from long ago. The closest thing I will see to electric, is my 70's Era golf cart.
> 
> With all the specialty parts, such as the LED lights, sensors, computers, door motors, locks, glass, ect. I do not see the used car market being as big as it is now. It will be new, lease, or the city bus.



Man you drive a new one... My truck is an 83 F350 and like you I'm not planning to get rid of it. it works fine and doesnt cost more than my first house.


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 19, 2019)

jbolt said:


> While I understand the appeal of EV's I don't think putting all our eggs in the electricity only basket is a great idea. Too much vulnerability relying on a single source of energy and the people who supply it.


huh?? So relying on petroleum is somehow diverse? I don't get that one at all.


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 19, 2019)

Reddinr said:


> Regarding fast charging at home.  Yeah, no cheap solutions there.  You can slow charge a big bank if batteries or supercapacitors and then dump the energy to the car's battery quickly but those are very expensive solutions and in the case of a big bank of batteries involves more energy loss.  Also, fast charging isn't all that great on the long term health of li-on batteries if you do it all the time.  Regarding charging safety, generally, the charging voltage/current is not turned on by the charger until a few seconds after the car-end connector is plugged in.  There is a safety interlock.


You touch on several things here. I don't know if it is true, but I understand the Tesla fast charger station we used has a truly mighty battery under the place, and it is being continuously charged at a rate the grid at the facility can manage, so that it can deliver huge charge rates to the cars, when they are there. My pal's Tesla Model "S" took about 20 minutes to bring the charge up to 80%, though I am unsure how much was in there before the charge. The charge rate concept was 332mph equivalent. It was enough time for a cup of tea, and to use the facilities at the motorway service stop.

Folk are used to the minutes they spend at a fuel stop. It is perhaps surprisingly more than many would estimate, but even so, if they go electric, I expect they will have to plan for it  more. The Tesla owner told us that he did try hybrid, describing it as "the worst of both worlds". He said he did have "range anxiety" at first, but after a few all-electric travels into France, and another through Germany, and on to Poland, that feeling went away.

I don't expect batteries can be "swapped out" in any form anytime soon. It would be a serious safety issue, and the value of a battery, depending on condition, is not constant like the liquid. There would have to be "standardization". I don't think so!

We will be forced into something other than fossil-fueled cars, if only because we used the stuff up. I know human nature might ensure we take a lot of discomfort, and disagreement in the selfish quest to extract every last bit of Sun energy that was stored in the vegetation over millions of years, but one contributor is right to suggest we may be forced off the fossil fuel somewhat sooner for other reasons.

If at all we can get fusion power going, especially using perhaps one using the Proton-Boron reaction that does not generate toxic long-lived radioactive waste, then we can use the electricity to extract hydrogen from water, and either burn the hydrogen in engines with only steam in the exhaust, or make more concentrated liquid fuels taking CO2 back out of the air. These would be "carbon neutral". Hydrogen is so light, it is inconvenient for cars. Some would fear the safety implications of driving around with a tank of gaseous hydrogen under pressure, and I hesitate to compare that to driving around with up 60 litres of petrol.

Charging is not only difficult for the grid energy infrastructure. Millions in cities cannot park up on their own property and have a point for overnight charge. I cannot see how a row of cars in the street alongside terrace houses can all have a way of getting the charge to them without all sorts of problems.  I guess many of us will change to a no-car lifestyle, while those who can afford it, will be going electric. To an extent, that separation is society has already started. I need a car, second-hand depreciated, reliable, low cost, and available. I look at the line of Teslas in my picture, and I know that the owners live with different norms compared to my life!


----------



## Flyinfool (Oct 20, 2019)

C-Bag said:


> huh?? So relying on petroleum is somehow diverse? I don't get that one at all.



With electric you are stuck with YOUR electric company, you have no choice as to which provider your house is connected to, therefore there is no diversity and they can charge whjat they want to. With liquid fuel I still have a complete choice of who I purchase my fuel from so they still have to compete for my business.


----------



## davidcarmichael (Oct 20, 2019)

Flyinfool said:


> With electric you are stuck with YOUR electric company, you have no choice as to which provider your house is connected to, therefore there is no diversity and they can charge whjat they want to. With liquid fuel I still have a complete choice of who I purchase my fuel from so they still have to compete for my business.


It isn't quite as simple as that. Here in CA gas is expensive and so is electricity. There is no serious competition between gas stations as gas suppliers are too smart to allow it. By shifting to a Time of Use electricity plan I cut the cost by over one third when the car is being charged (and most of the day). The result is that, compared with a gas car, my Tesla 3 gets about 105 miles to the gallon, twice as much as the hybrids I have owned. If gas was cheaper and electricity wasn't then the amount saved would be less, but then again the routine servicing my car needs is a tire rotation and filling up the window washer.


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 20, 2019)

Flyinfool said:


> With electric you are stuck with YOUR electric company, you have no choice as to which provider your house is connected to, therefore there is no diversity and they can charge whjat they want to. With liquid fuel I still have a complete choice of who I purchase my fuel from so they still have to compete for my business.


Huh? I ain't STUCK with nobody, my solar array makes sure of that. So you make your own fuel?

It's funny to think oil companies "compete". No matter if the price at the barrel goes down to $60 they still charge you like they are still paying over $90.


----------



## savarin (Oct 21, 2019)

do we really have to resort to name calling.


----------



## Norseman C.B. (Oct 21, 2019)

No I don't Have to so I will find something more intelligent to do......................


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 21, 2019)

I am quite sure the fully autonomous vehicle is going to happen soon. There are  cars already out there doing it for "research". They are many, and the efforts extensive. Uber have the dubious distinction of having their self-driving experimental SUV kill a woman in Tempe, Arizona, but they continue to conduct tests. Probably what they currently call "AI driver-assist mode" is actually already capable of fully autonomous driving, but Tesla and the rest will not go fully autonomous until they have ironed out even the rare problem situations.

The thing is, the cars are already 100% network connected. It will not take various authorities long to seek to analyze metadata (where were you and when?), apply taxes, force speeds, destinations, routes chosen (regardless you wanted to divert to visit Grandma) or have the car stop with the doors locked because your name is the same as some freak on the wanted list.

(PS. Not seriously conspiracy theories. Just using an artificial extreme to make the point!)


----------



## C-Bag (Oct 21, 2019)

I've been shocked and surprised and should have known better. Almost nothing can be discussed without it getting personal. And I'll admit I get triggered too. 

But a car for me was always just a way to get from A to B. Not a status symbol or appendage extension.  I always drove VW's because there were very few cars in the 60's that got 30mpg and I could maintain them super cheaply. That felt like the bare minimum to me. Then the first gas crunch came in '72 and it's never gone away. Hanging over us like the sword of Damocles. With every president since then having a speech about "our addiction to oil" from both sides of the isle. Meanwhile I was working on cars for a living and it was clear to me the whole ICE concept was lipstick on a pig.

 In the 50's when I'd read like Popular Mechanic's etc there was always some article about this glorious future and it usually didn't include ICE. ICE is barely different from when it was first conceived over 100yrs agon. It should have been a bridge to something better like steam was to ICE, but we let the complete takeover halt us. Proponents of the ICE have ALWAYS said electric was impossible. And now it's become some kind of freedom thing. Well I've not been free to buy what I want until some 40yrs later because of monopoly's that have kept us immobile. There is no real logic in basing your world and economy on a finite resource. And when you see who's making $$$(Saudi Arabia etc) on it and spilling our blood and treasure to keep despots and tyrants safe and can sell us oil, I wanted the freedom to give them as little as I can get away with.


----------



## cjtoombs (Oct 22, 2019)

C-Bag said:


> China is also forging ahead with LFTR plants invented by the man who invented the light and heavy water nuclear power plants here in the US. It was funded as a portable nuclear option for the military in Oak Ridge facility. Can't melt down, far simpler than light and heavy reactors and best of all runs on "spent" fuel rods and can refine and reuse until gone. We have a 300yr supply just in what's being stored. He asks "ok if this is so good why isn't it being used?" Because it doesn't produce fissionable material for bombs and "depleted uranium " munitions used in every war since Bosnia in tank and down to ,50cal rounds. You know how much of the fuel rod is used before its called "depleted"? 5-7%. So it's actually 95-93% un depleted.



I am not aware of any .50 caliber DU ammunition, and the smallest used in the US today is 25mm, for the Bradley IFV.  The 20mm used in the Phalanx was replaced with tungsten although there may be some left in stock.  DU isn't made in fuel rods, it's made in the uranium refining process.  When you enrich one pile of uranium, that means you have to deplete another pile, which is where what is used in munitions come from.  It's radioactivity is low, but it is dangerous because of heavy metal poisoning.


----------



## Norseman C.B. (Oct 22, 2019)

Your claims of bogus science are your opinion, which in my opinion is just as bogus and unintelligent !!
I served this country to help protect my right as well as yours, to voice our collective opinions !!
As far as what I believe in you couldn't be any more wrong !  I stand up for my convictions and beliefs based on my own research
and experience. So if you don't agree, prove me wrong with out flinging insults, that's what intelligent people do...................


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 22, 2019)

Please not to be considered flamboyant - I thought the thread needed a little more colour, and see if folk like a little of what is here now, before they settle for some ugly little over-controlled OCD eco-centric automatic pram with a motor that would not disgrace a sewing machine in 10 or 20 years into the future.

The all electric Jaguar E-Type Zero! Yum! Old style body. Brand new car with modern brakes, suspension, and packed with tech. I did not even try to discover the $$$$$. The much more "economy" offering, the I-Pace is still something of a supercar. The latest Jaguar I-Pace looks mean enough - but cannot ever be as beautiful as the E-Type, if only because it is a 2019 hatchback. Jaguar I-Pace is Tesla class, but with much better stitched leather interior and refinements that fit the "nearly supercar" price tag. Skip over the E-Type picture, and consider the family hatchback I-Pace is near $70K!



Jaguar E-Type Zero



Jaguar I-Pace - $69,500

So how about the Tesla Model 3? Tesla have a big grip on all the tech. Some users do not like all the fixable bits in the car being treated as if it was software update. There is no 3rd party parts distribution outlet. About 10 bucks short of $39K. Price-wise, it is a whole lot lower cost than the Jaguar. I would still have to hang out for a depreciated "pre-loved"! Teslas are serious EVs. They have competition now, but Elon got there first.



Tesla Model 3 - $38,990

Then there is the Chevrolet Bolt EV.
I must admit, I have not looked at Chevrolet since the long ago days I loved Chevys in Africa. There was Impala, Biscayne, Bel Air, Camaro, and Corvette Sting Ray. What happened to the "Volt"? Oh yes - that is a hybrid. Why call a car a name like "Bolt"? Billed as affordable and long range, by which they mean $36,320 and "up to" 238 miles.



Chevrolet Bolt EV - 36,320

As I make this list, generally heading to lower prices, I am not sure the value-for-money quotient goes up. Less car is what you get, but the 238 miles before ending up stranded is actually very usable, and enough for many. DO NOT run out of juice in an EV! There is a reason for the existence of hybrids!

Just because they get smaller, they do not necessarily get cheaper!  OK - there is a reputation for build quality  from the BMW stable. The BMW i3. What is it with the "i"? The Jags have got it too - except they go for the capital "I".  It used to mean "fuel injection" before came  "i-Tunes". Your EV model begins to sound like the next generation not-so-smartphone!  OK then, I accept that it is a matter of taste, and some other than the committee that approved the design might love it, but I think it looks ugly! Is there something in the breeze that makes EV designers go for a race to the bottom, and end up with the same look? Not exactly so "affordable" either!



BMW i3 - $44,450

The Nissan "Leaf". It used to have a range of about 80 miles, which is a no-no! Now it can do 150 miles. So OK. Why call a car a "leaf"? What vibe are they trying to convey? A car is not "leafy" unless one counts it gets a rusty look when it is about to fall apart and rot! They play the "options" game to an insane art form. Right down to whether the steering wheel has a leather cover. The image is a 2018 model, but if I blink, they all start to look the same, and the white reminds me the Jag.  Three "trim levels", but I could only find two prices.



Nissan Leaf Tekna 2018 - $29,990 & $34,300 (mid-range).

There are loads more. I don't know how long the list is, but I think _every_ car manufacturer is going for it! Mercedes has been seriously researching new battery tech, and is in volume production building cars in 6 factories. My favourite brand (I drive a diesel Merc), but expect electric Mercs to be pricey for a new one. They seem to have something Tesla-ish about them, but I could not quite place it. No picture of a Merc yet, but I am sure you can find one.

I suppose I had better say that none of the above was "sponsored" in any way, and given the stuff I was saying about them, you can tell that is true. I can guess there might be some vendors a bit miffed that I "left them out". This is just a sampling of what we can have now. Maybe jump in and enjoy, because in 10 years, or maybe 20, the whole scene of personal mobility might be quite constrained, and we might look back on these, the  times we checked out pictures of new EVs as "them good old days"!


----------



## westerner (Oct 25, 2019)

Flyinfool said:


> The problem is in the other end of the power distribution. In an average neighborhood the grid can only handle around 3 or 4 electric cars per city block, a newer neighborhood might handle 5 or 6. Most neighborhoods are not wired to supply that many amps to every house at the same time. It takes a lot of amps to charge one of these cars overnight. And for those that think a car can be charged in 30 minutes........ It is simple math, if the battery in a Telsa S is 375 volts and 90KWh, and you need to charge it to 80% in 30 minutes, that means that you will be pumping in the power at nearly 400 volts and at 640 amps. This is very lethal power levels for home owners to be messing with. Like plugging it in while it is raining or snowing out and everything is wet. Now factor in winter and everything is covered with road salt and wet, road salt in water is very electrically conductive. Now that charger if connected to a 220 volt system, will be pulling over 1,000 amps out of the wall. Most small factories do not have that much power available. People do not consider these type of numbers when they are wanting a faster charge.
> 
> Unless there is some major breakthrough in battery or power generation like finding a good source of dilithium crystals. Electric will not replace IC in my lifetime. It will remain in the category of a second car, or a toy. Cross country travel is totally impractical with any current or proposed form of EV.


Infrastructure will be very expensive to install and implement, and will replace "range anxiety" as the next limiting factor in acceptance of the EV. 
And to continue to beat the dead horse, lithium-ion technology cannot remain as the foundation of the EV revolution. Its limitations are too varied, too serious and too politically charged. (Please pardon the pun)


----------



## davidcarmichael (Oct 25, 2019)

Flyinfool said:


> We already have adequate power generation in most (not all) parts of the country. Most people will charge at night when most of the factories and big offices are shut down, This will actually smooth out the load on the power plants and allow them to run more efficiently. The problem is in the other end of the power distribution. In an average neighborhood the grid can only handle around 3 or 4 electric cars per city block, a newer neighborhood might handle 5 or 6. Most neighborhoods are not wired to supply that many amps to every house at the same time. It takes a lot of amps to charge one of these cars overnight. And for those that think a car can be charged in 30 minutes........ It is simple math, if the battery in a Telsa S is 375 volts and 90KWh, and you need to charge it to 80% in 30 minutes, that means that you will be pumping in the power at nearly 400 volts and at 640 amps. This is very lethal power levels for home owners to be messing with. Like plugging it in while it is raining or snowing out and everything is wet. Now factor in winter and everything is covered with road salt and wet, road salt in water is very electrically conductive. Now that charger if connected to a 220 volt system, will be pulling over 1,000 amps out of the wall. Most small factories do not have that much power available. People do not consider these type of numbers when they are wanting a faster charge.
> 
> Unless there is some major breakthrough in battery or power generation like finding a good source of dilithium crystals. Electric will not replace IC in my lifetime. It will remain in the category of a second car, or a toy. Cross country travel is totally impractical with any current or proposed form of EV.



Your math is way off. Houses can't handle that kind of current. Most electric cars are probably charging at 32 or at a max 50 amps at 240V


----------



## davidcarmichael (Oct 25, 2019)

davidcarmichael said:


> Your math is way off. Houses can't handle that kind of current. Most electric cars are probably charging at 32 or at a max 50 amps at 240V.


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 25, 2019)

I recently retired after working at a nuclear electric generating station for 30 years. I've seen many a trend in this industry over that time.
Here's my predictions.
The state of the electric grids and generating capacity in both the US and many European countries is getting very aged and falling short of current needs. Most of the nuclear facilities in many European nations have been decommissioned along with many of the coal fired stations both in the EU and US. Add to that, deregulation of electric utilities in the US has put the greedy, money grubbing corporations in control so only the minimum upgrades and replacements of old equipment are being done.
In the US, what is not widely known is almost 90% or more of the nuclear generating stations are within 10 to 12 years of reaching their license term for operation with most of them already into the extensions given by the NRC.
THERE WILL BE NO MORE EXTENSIONS !! If they do grant them under political pressure, I feel sorry for anyone living anywhere near one.

With electricity demand already on a continuous rise even before EV's, older fossil generating stations long shutdown and decommissioned, and no new nuclear plants even being planned for, I'm not sure how they plan on charging EV's  if a majority of people are driving them.
Oh, and for the GREEN weenies that think renewables are the answer....PIPE DREAM... Wouldn't even exist without government subsidies.

What will their answer be ?? I'll tell you. TAXES !!
Yep, think of the day when you're paying a highway users tax to microwave a bag of popcorn to eat while watching a movie on your TV. The electric meter on your house will be taxed as if it was all used to charge your EV. Yep, it's coming.
I'll even wager that there are some young enough to see what will happen next. You'll drive to work in your shiny, new EV, plug it in and go to work. You'll get off work after a long day, tired and sweaty, jump in that shiny EV only to find the battery is DEAD.
Yep, while you were at work there was a big generating capacity loss and market prices skyrocketed so the company that owns the charging stations figured out they can take the power in all those vehicles, reverse the current flow and convert it to AC and ship it back out on the grid for a huge profit.
Meanwhile, there you'll sit with all your co-workers. Tired, hot, and dirty wondering how you're going to get home and wondering why you ever got rid of that old, reliable petrol guzzler.

I know some of you are laughing at this. I just hope it pops back in your head when it happens.
Remember, he that laughs last, laughs best.


----------



## ttabbal (Oct 26, 2019)

Vehicle to grid doesn't exist at the moment. No current EVs are capable of reversing the flow of energy. There is talk about it, but there are a number of problems that need to be resolved before that can happen. The worst that can happen with present tech is that you don't get charged at work. Even if it does, people won't be stranded as they would need to enable that and they would likely have limits built in to prevent total draining. Nobody would use it if they didn't. And most of us don't need to charge at work. I can and most days do, but I can get home fine without it. If it's not connected, you can't drain it. 

Right now, renewable with storage is being built without subsidies for less per kwh than fossil or nuclear. There are problems to solve for sure, but that's what distribution companies are buying. That doesn't mean that all other sources will go away. Every source has pros and cons. 

They all exist because of government help. Some from monopoly protection, nuclear by covering the insurance and cleanup costs. They all have various levels of money and regulation helping them. 

I agree with the issues that the corporations have caused by failing to maintain the infrastructure properly. I wish I had a solution to that one.


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 26, 2019)

Not sure where you're getting your numbers from. Except for hydro-electric all renewable sources of generation cost way more than fossil or nuclear. The ONLY reason distribution companies are buying them is because of governmental mandates.
To appease the voting GREEN public for their votes, the government mandated that all energy companies had to produce an increasing percentage of their output via renewable sources.
Take away the regulations, requirements, & subsidies and almost all of the wind farms and solar farms would be shutdown and abandoned tomorrow. There's no money in it without them.
The last few years I worked, they build a huge wind farm that surrounded the dual unit station I worked at. At the time, we could produce electricity at $5 per Megawatt-hour. The wind farm was at $25+ per Megawatt-hour if the wind was blowing hard enough, more if it wasn't.
The wind farms on the east coast in the New England area are only operated full tilt during the winter months.
Why ?
Because it reduces the demand on the fossil and nuclear stations so they can keep their cooling water discharge temperature below EPA limits to prevent temperature shock to fish and wildlife and prevent huge fines to the generating companies.
Not hardly operated during the summer months when electric demand is at its peak to run all the AC units.


----------



## JimDawson (Oct 26, 2019)

I guess somebody better get to work on Mr. Fusion    But I have always been partial to a quantum singularity as a power source.


----------



## ttabbal (Oct 26, 2019)

I don't claim to be an expert, but there are a number of sources that seem to back it up. 









						Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal
					

New analysis shows renewable energy is beating coal on cost cross the U.S.: The price to build new wind and solar has fallen below the cost of running existing coal-fired power plants in Red and Blue states.




					www.forbes.com
				












						The Numbers are In and Renewables are Winning On Price Alone
					

We knew this time was coming: Call it the crossover point, when technologies like large-scale wind and solar come so far down the cost curve that they become cheaper than legacy sources of electric power generation.




					blog.aee.net
				




Most of the data comes from these guys. 









						Levelized Cost of Energy and Levelized Cost of Storage 2018
					

Lazard’s latest  Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (LCOE 12.0) shows a continued decline in the cost of generating electricity from utility-scale solar and wind




					www.lazard.com
				





Reasonably well sourced, if perhaps biased discussion of the subsidy of nuclear insurance. 





__





						How much of a subsidy is the Price-Anderson Nuclear Industry Indemnity Act?
					






					thinkprogress.org
				




We're getting into the weeds for a topic on EVs on a machinist forum, but I was asked for sources. These are just a few of top hits from Google search on cost of energy.


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 26, 2019)

ttabbal said:


> We're getting into the weeds for a topic on EVs on a machinist forum ..


Aww - that's OK. I kinda relied on the group title saying "OFF TOPIC Discussion". Seriously though, you are right to point to some real data searched.

The human need for energy will remain insatiable, and there is no limit to the ambition. We do manage to put our planet at risk. Jim Dawson's light-hearted reference to Marty McFly's dandy gadget aside, even if we got the fusion power going with pretty much unlimited capability, I am thinking humans would find projects dear to their aims which would gobble it up ! Where are we? ITER is scheduled to start up in 2025, and it will remain an incredibly expensive experiment. There are criticisms of it, but it is apparently intended to be a "proof of concept. The DEMO project first phase to provide a 2GW generator is to last from 2033 to 2038. Maybe something can be contrived for earlier.

The UK grid was once the nationalized CEGB (Central Electricity Generating Board). The grid it made is substantially still in use today. We now have about 5 large "energy suppliers" among a list I counted of 36. The consumer unit trip switch on my house is 100A, and our line voltage is 235VAC.

Without getting into a tangle about private supplier philosophies vs other nation-wide infrastructure arrangements, there are some simple truths. The electrons delivering the energy that is flowing into your new Chevy, or powering your AC unit, was mechanical energy torque hauling a turbine only microseconds earlier. The origin of the energy is still the facilities that generate it. That these in between "suppliers" can "own", the energy during the microseconds it took to arrive at your house, and somehow give it added value on the way to re-selling it in competition with each other.. is the fallacy.

There is nothing any "supplier" can do to make the electrons any more energetic, nor move any faster, nor somehow smell any sweeter than from any other. What we get is the supply bundled with "air miles", complexity tariff marketing to "better suit our lifestyles", and rates that will vary upward after a while, and "switch over to us" incentives, and complimentary stationery, and the list goes on..
They do nothing to help the electrons in any way. In this sense, a purely parasitic accounting arrangement! An extra layer of what amounts to the billing department of the prime generator facilities. For a grid to serve a community, like garbage collection, it has to have some "communal" feature that works way better than each user generating his own. With absolutely zero nod to Marx, and Engel, Aldous Huxley, starry-eyed capital investors, deluded "zero point energy" enthusiasts and various pseudo-science adherents, I say I can completely relate the "Mr Fusion" appeal.

Nobody will be powering their Tesla (or restored DeLorean) by stuffing a banana peel + crushed beer can, whatever, into a converted Krups coffee grinder anytime soon!


----------



## ttabbal (Oct 26, 2019)

Yeah, Mr. Fusion would be awesome. Sadly, it violates the laws of physics.  

Real fusion has been 30 years away for 50 years or so now.  Not to say they shouldn't work on it, but maybe not bank on it happening anytime soon. 

Everything else has various issues and tradeoffs like any engineering. I'd love everything to be zero emission, having asthma gives one an appreciation for clean air. But I don't expect to have it happen overnight, maybe not ever. Market forces seem to be helping us go that way. I'd be thrilled to get to even 50% and phase out coal. Gas is less of a problem, and nuclear fission is at least a contained issue. Does that make me light-green?


----------



## MontanaLon (Oct 26, 2019)

ttabbal said:


> I don't claim to be an expert, but there are a number of sources that seem to back it up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And seem is the operative there. Each of those articles was written during a period of elevated coal prices. Of course, the price of any commodity will fluctuate with time but the past spikes in prices were caused almost entirely by over regulation of coal due in no small part to the Paris Climate Accords. Over the past 10 months of 2019 coal prices have fallen as regulatory burdens are eased and production increases. Fallen by about 45% in fact so at least the portion of cost of electrical generation which falls to fuel has decreased dramatically since those articles were written. 

The US has huge recoverable coal reserves. In some areas it is literally more common than dirt. Only regulation has caused the cost of recovery to be inflated artificially. Obama said it, "These jobs aren't coming back" in reference to coal production. Turns out he was wrong.


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 26, 2019)

ttabbal said:


> Everything else has various issues and tradeoffs like any engineering. I'd love everything to be zero emission, having asthma gives one an appreciation for clean air. But I don't expect to have it happen overnight, maybe not ever. Market forces seem to be helping us go that way. I'd be thrilled to get to even 50% and phase out coal. Gas is less of a problem, and nuclear fission is at least a contained issue. Does that make me light-green?


What is it about driving electric that triggers that "feeling greener" thing? It is mostly undeserved! The electricity came in large fraction from burning fossil fuel.

We know the demand for energy is huge, and will keep going up. Sometime in 2018, UK ran for a week without using coal, though that does not necessarily mean the fossil content was much less. Only 23% was renewables. The rest was gas and some was from nuclear. Coal is less than 1% now, and in a few years, will be gone altogether. That there are huge available coal reserves is not the point. Setting aside that coal is the king of polluting ways to get energy, and even if the profit were reduced to use some technology to "make it clean", the point is that it is Sun energy captured over millions of years being expended in a few decades, and hurting the planet gas balance. We may not be able to burn every last lump of it before life becomes unbearable!

Having experienced the "Tesla trip", I would also like to go electric, and that inevitably brings the mind to giving consideration to the various "green issues" that get plugged, if not hyped. The electric car is not a "green issue icon". It has not the benefit of "Mr Fusion". It still burns fossil in the end. Even so, the green propaganda that comes with it has made me consider this stuff more carefully. It has to be about more than a lovely car that can pull away from a Porsche being revved in launch mode on full tap!


----------



## cjtoombs (Oct 27, 2019)

After a visit to Japan, I can tell you electric vehicles are in extensive use, hauling millions of people every day.  They are called trains, and they work great.  Batteries never run down, and they are on time, usually within seconds of schedule.  Japan has never had many fossil fuel resources, and what they did have is already gone, so they import pretty much all their energy.  Cars are expensive, most people have migrated to large cities (and the trend is continuing) and their public transit network is excellent.  My prediction for the far future is that as fossil fuels become more rare and thus expensive, they will be replaced by bio-fuels, which will put our energy needs in competition with our food needs.  This will cause the price of arable land to skyrocket and the people who are not needed to farm the land will move to the cities.  In a lot of ways, this is what has happened to Japan.  It's pretty unlikely for anyone on this forum to see this happen, unless they are quite young and live to a ripe old age, as I see this for the next 50+ years.  Cars will be scarce, whether they are electric or bio-fuel and most people with take the train or bus.


----------



## savarin (Oct 27, 2019)

What struck me about Japan and Singapore come to that is how clean it is.


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 27, 2019)

I'll admit renewable may be cheaper than coal as stated by your sources, but I wonder if that's mainly due to the Obama administration. They did shut down many of the coal mines that are now beginning to re-opened.
Is the higher cost due to lower cost of renewable or higher cost of coal ? Can you say Supply and Demand ?

A true comparison is hard to come by when it comes to a comparison between nations. Japan and many European nations do indeed have wonderful mass transient systems like train and they work well, but they are also countries that are smaller than some of our States.
California, the epitome of GREEN and traffic jams, has been incapable of finishing their high speed train.

If you look at the graph of electricity usage vs time of day for the US, you see a peak demand during the time of day that wind and solar are the least reliable and lowest average value for daylight hours. And unless they develop a solar panel that works on infrared light, solar doesn't work at all at night.
The ability to store electric power on a large scale will definitely be a game changer regardless of the generation source, but there's also the issue with the rate that power can be accessed. With the two current methods of storage, batteries and capacitors, there is the issue that batteries don't tend to like large power drain rates or fast changes in rate. Capacitors handle this, but the power density isn't there.
Systems that combine the two work well, but are extremely expensive and limited in size and amount of power storage capability.

Myself, I believe a hydrogen based energy system would be a better way to go. A lot of the infrastructure is already in place when you consider storing hydrogen as ammonia. I wish I'd kept the link to the article about he development to store ammonia in a salt based storage medium that would allow a cars fuel tank to store an amount of ammonia safely that would give the same range as a tank of gas in approximately the same space and weight. The part that needed to be solved was an efficient method to split the ammonia back into hydrogen and nitrogen so the hydrogen could be used for either an ICE or fuel cell.

There's also the need for a better method of combining the hydrogen and nitrogen into ammonia, but consider the possibilities.
Using renewable energy sources to split water into hydrogen and oxygen and then combine the hydrogen with nitrogen to create ammonia.
It can then easily be stored and/or shipped anywhere it's needed. Long term storage isn't an issue like gasoline and diesel that need stabilizers for long term storage and it's totally renewable since combusting hydrogen and oxygen creates energy and water and the nitrogen is just released back into the atmosphere where both could be recycled with almost zero pollution.

Other then Big Oil stifling this technology or the peoples fear of the "Dangers of hydrogen and ammonia", I just don't understand why this technology isn't being pushed more than it is.
I say many articles and videos showing great strides in the development when gas was $4+/gallon, but almost nothing since prices plummeted. It makes one wonder....


----------



## Norseman C.B. (Oct 27, 2019)

Hydrogen use just makes sense, it's clean burning and nearly limitless ...........


----------



## graham-xrf (Oct 28, 2019)

Norseman C.B. said:


> Hydrogen use just makes sense, it's clean burning and nearly limitless ...........


I agree that hydrogen burns absolutely clean in an engine, with only water as the exhaust. I would love it! The Toyota Mirai is already here, but it is a fuel cell design. Honda have a hydrogen fuel cell electric design (FCX), and a battery-electric something as well. There is a South Korean thing (Hyundai) as well.

There are some problems! Notice that working the hydrogen into electricity for an electric car via a fuel cell technology is not the same as hydrogen internal combustion in a car engine. Getting a car engine to run on hydrogen is quite easy in principle, though one has to address corrosion effects of flame steam in a cylinder bore. The main problem is hydrogen is so light, you need a big volume of it at high pressure. Hydrogen tanks in cars are not very friendly!

Hydrogen is much more convenient in the form of a high energy density liquid by making a hydrocarbon. As for the limitless supply, right now 90% or likely more comes from fossil natural gas. We use some of the gas fuel to drive the extraction process on the remainder. To use fossil fuel to pull hydrogen back from water is worse than fuel cells, or burning the fuel direct in the engine in the first place. Renewables like hydro-electric, wind, PV solar, and maybe one day, fusion power, extracting hydrogen by tearing apart water, also make less sense than using it to charge a battery.

Fuel cells need hydrogen that was contrived by expending fossil fuel anyway. I think most fuel cell development is on the back burner now, the push being to battery electric cars.


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 28, 2019)

You are absolutely correct, that's why I like the ammonia (NH3) solution. If you Google it, ammonia has 3X the amount of hydrogen per unit volume as liquid hydrogen and almost the same energy density as gasoline. It does come with its own issues though as it's very corrosive and can be toxic to humans. It's also heavier than air and cause complications or death in an automotive accident if the tank is ruptured.
When exposed to water, or even the humidity in the air, it does break down fairly rapidly back into its constituent parts of hydrogen and nitrogen so it doesn't pose any pollution problem.

Hydrogen can be burned in a modern internal combustion engine, but it isn't ideally designed to do so. The resultant water from combustion would be corrosive and can emulsify in oil causing bearing problems, but even gasoline & diesel engines result in water formation when burned. Just look at the tail pipe of a running car on a cool morning before the exhaust pipe gets hot, there's a stream of water pouring out.
To efficiently burn hydrogen in an ICE and address the corrosion issues, I do believe it would take a complete redesign, but I don't think it would be a far stretch. Consider the fact that Henry Ford's original concept for the Model T was for it to burn ethanol which, when used in an ICE, poses many of the same issues hydrogen does.

I'll have to look and see if I can find that article about a fairly new method of storing ammonia in a salt based matrix, interesting read if nothing else. It would solve the storage and range issues for hydrogen use in vehicles, but the problem of efficiently splitting the ammonia back into hydrogen and nitrogen on demand in a small scale platform like an automobile still needs to be solved. Another potential issue is that the high combustion temperature of hydrogen causes a fairly high production of NOX. Even if you separate the nitrogen from the hydrogen when splitting the ammonia, the air used for the combustion process is 70% nitrogen.


----------



## projectnut (Oct 28, 2019)

I'm not sure about an electric car, but I wouldn't mind trying out an electric garden tractor.  As a kid I was always enamored by the GE Elec-Trak electric garden tractors.  They seemed to be adequate for a relatively small property.  The accessories available were a mower, snow blower, rototiller front blade, and end loader bucket among others.  I really wondered how long they would last with just a couple standard 12 volt batteries for power.

I see today there are several manufacturers like Cub Cadet, Husqvarna, Craftsman, Yard Max, and a few others offering electric garden tractors.  The downside is still longevity of battery life.  Most are offering only an hour or so of runtime before needing to be recharged.  Even the fastest recharge time seems to be 4-6 hours, with the more common recharge time being 10-12 hours.  

Another downside seems to be the cost of the batteries.  They're nearly $200.00 each and most machines need 4 of them.  The manufacturers seem to be touting a 5 year lifespan, which in my mind isn't all that great.  Personally I've gotten considerably longer battery life on almost every vehicle.  Current auto and truck batteries have lasted an average of 8 years.  Tractor starting batteries on the other hand have lasted a bit longer at about 10 years each.


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 28, 2019)

Yeah, big difference in price and longevity for batteries designed for constant use vs short term, high starting current.
An electric motor is definitely more reliable and lower maintenance than a gas or diesel engine, but when you consider how much fuel one could buy for $800-$1,000 that replacement batteries would cost, they start to lose their appeal.


----------



## davidcarmichael (Oct 28, 2019)

JPigg55 said:


> Yeah, big difference in price and longevity for batteries designed for constant use vs short term, high starting current.
> An electric motor is definitely more reliable and lower maintenance than a gas or diesel engine, but when you consider how much fuel one could buy for $800-$1,000 that replacement batteries would cost, they start to lose their appeal.



OK here are my calcs based on a Tesla Model 3 doing a 60 mile round trip commute every working day. I am assuming an "equivalent" car to get about 27-28 mpg and with gas prices in CA just over $4/gal and TOU off-peak electricity costing us $0.12/KwH (we generate some of this with solar but I am ignoring that as we have net-net metering).

It takes 2.5 hours and costs us about $2.30 to charge at home each day (240 volts * 32 amps *2.5 hours *$0.12) for the commute which translates to 0.575 gallons at current prices. A gas car would use about 2.2 gallons for the commute which is a daily saving of $6.50. Multiplying this up for a year of 50 weeks of daily weekday commutes gives an annual savings of about $1625.

Ignoring the fact that a BMW would need regular servicing and the Tesla does not (except for tire rotation), the estimated battery price of *$7000* (not "$1000" as estimated above) which MAY be required after 6.6 years and after the 100000 mile/8 year Tesla battery warranty was up, then the savings amounting to $10,700 (6.6 years * $1625) would pay for a new battery, and incidentally boost the car's value way above that of an equivalent gas car 7 years old. 
If the battery lasted longer than 100000 miles then it would be even better. 
If the battery died within the warranty period and we got a free replacement, it would be better still (for us, worse for Tesla).
I recognize that battery range drops off as the battery ages but that doesn't change the cost per mile (measured in WattHours) . Of course Tesla promises that batteries will get cheaper in future and last longer and that does seem reasonable given the state of the technology.

I would be glad of any questions or comments about my calculations?


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 28, 2019)

The $800-$1,000 for batteries was concerning the previous post for an electric garden tractor. It uses four 12v lead acid batteries that run around $200 each and usually only last 2 to 5 years.

Tesla car, whole different animal. Being in California makes a difference as well as gas prices here are running in the $2.60/gal range.
Since you brought it up, it would appear you installed a home charging station to charge you car. How much did that cost and what would it cost to replace if it fails ?
I considered a Tesla model S back when they first came out, but the nearest dealer to me is over a 4 hour drive away and the nearest Tesla charging station is around 90 minutes away. I was driving almost 300 miles round trip to and from work with no place to charge in between so even with the extended battery upgrade, it would push the limits of what the cars advertises range would be.
I averaged driving around 60,000 miles a year so the 100K mile battery warranty would last me just short of 2 years. All things considered, the potential fuel savings couldn't justify the added cost.

Something else I had to consider, the model 3 wasn't even thought of back then and the model S ran in the $65K-$85K price range depending on options. I just looked and saw the model 3 runs over $35K on the low end.
I ended up buying a Subaru Legacy loaded out the door for under $20K, more than $60K less than what the model S would have cost.
Even compared to the low end model 3 price, that's $15K less on the purchase price. Even at $4/gal gas, that's 3,750 gallons of fuel. At the 31-36 mpg I was getting, that's 116,250 miles even at the low 31 mpg.
There are even long term considerations like the availability of replacement batteries. I worked with some guys who drove hybrids that they couldn't get rid of because battery technology had made the batteries they used obsolete. I'll admit this is less likely for a Tesla, but not out of the equation. While a new battery technology like Graphene based batteries might be retro fitted to work in your Tesla model 3, what if Graphene super capacitors wins out ? Replacement lithium ion batteries could become both extremely rare and expensive in a very short time.


----------



## davidcarmichael (Oct 28, 2019)

JPigg55 said:


> The $800-$1,000 for batteries was concerning the previous post for an electric garden tractor. It uses four 12v lead acid batteries that run around $200 each and usually only last 2 to 5 years.
> 
> Tesla car, whole different animal. Being in California makes a difference as well as gas prices here are running in the $2.60/gal range.
> Since you brought it up, it would appear you installed a home charging station to charge you car. How much did that cost and what would it cost to replace if it fails ?
> ...



You have to consider the cost of electricity as well as that of gas.

The home charging installation installation cost about $35. I needed a 50A breaker (double for 240V), some 6 gauge wire and a Nema 14-50P surface mounted socket. All came from Home Depot and it took a couple of hours to install. Difficult to see how it would be likely to fail. The cable that Tesla supplies with the car plugs right into it but only draws a maximum of 32 amps. If you want more you have to buy the $500 Tesla charger and install it in much the same way. The extra speed of charging wasn't worth it for us. In SoCal, Edison will actually pay up to $500 to have it done for you. They also gave us a $1000 grant just for buying the car. The state gave us $2500 and a car-pool lane sticker so you can use it with just one person in the car.

We have owned 3 hybrids, all great cars. You can't compare hybrids or even V8-powered "muscle" cars (I used to have a 4.6L Mustang) to a Tesla though. The performance is fantastic and the only sound is road noise.

This is little point trying to guess how Lithium Ion or other technologies will progress in capacity or reduce in cost. You can be fairly sure they will though. The Tesla charging network is a major plus for those who need cross-country capability, but of course it is the car's self-driving features that really make it different. Right now you can drive long distances on freeways without actually having to drive at all (much safer than me driving especially in bad weather or heavy traffic) but there is a lot to be done before the car can really drive itself around towns. It's all coming though.

In future I expect second-hand and ex-lease Teslas will be a great deal.


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 29, 2019)

Now that I'm retired and don't have the long commute, I'd definitely consider a Tesla. I'd still be a little reluctant without a dealer or certified maintenance shop closer than what currently exists.
I haven't looked into the other manufacturer models of late, but haven't been too impressed with any that are in my price range.
Here in Illinois, they're more likely to charge you extra than give tax credits and the like as California does. I'm also out in the country with an REA electric company so have even higher electric rates than you do. Would still be cheaper than buying gas though.


----------



## Flyinfool (Oct 29, 2019)

Another point to look at. Here in Wisconsin they just added an electric/hybrid tax. Every year when you pay for your plates, there is an extra tax added for all electric or hybrid vehicles. this is because the gas tax is used to pay for the roads and the electrics are not paying the gas tax. They are now.


----------



## davidcarmichael (Oct 29, 2019)

Flyinfool said:


> Another point to look at. Here in Wisconsin they just added an electric/hybrid tax. Every year when you pay for your plates, there is an extra tax added for all electric or hybrid vehicles. this is because the gas tax is used to pay for the roads and the electrics are not paying the gas tax. They are now.



Do you really believe the gas tax pays for the roads? Tax is tax. You tax what you don't want.


----------



## cathead (Oct 30, 2019)

The aging power grid will not sustain the added load of millions of electric vehicles so I expect the electric vehicle
industry will nose over at some point in the near future.  We are approaching peak oil and already are using
the grid at it's fullest.  The main problem with electric power is the huge inefficiency along the way as it is generated and
distributed around the country.  The electric grid operates at about twenty five percent efficiency  The price of fuel 
and electricity will continue to rise so at some point we will have to learn how to conserve what is left of our resources.  
The grid uses peaking plants that burn diesel or natural gas to compensate for varying loads on the grid.  The fewer
energy conversions, the better as far as efficiency is concerned.  I expect I will be driving a gasoline powered vehicle
in ten years in northern Minnesota where temperatures often reach minus 40 in the winter.  A vehicle with four wheel drive
and a good heater is a welcome thing in these parts and not likely be electric powered any time soon.


----------



## JPigg55 (Oct 30, 2019)

I ran into another post on a different forum. I didn't think work towards a hydrogen based system was still going on with much gusto, but it seems a couple major breakthroughs have been made. Not yet commercially viable yet, but starting to look good.
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-method-hydrogen-efficiently-capture-renewable.amp
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/201...ir-and-water-could-power-globe-without-carbon

For vehicles, hydrogen from ammonia makes a lot of sense. Infrastructure already exists in the most part due to agricultural use, easily stored and transported, and non-polluting. I couldn't find the article, but (as I remember it) a researcher in a western US University developed a way to store ammonia at ambient pressure and temperature in a salt based matrix that, for the same given volume, would give the same mileage range as gasoline in a vehicle.


----------



## Flyinfool (Oct 30, 2019)

davidcarmichael said:


> Do you really believe the gas tax pays for the roads? Tax is tax. You tax what you don't want.



Yes tax is tax and there is no way to know where the money is actually going once collected. BUT this is still a tax that ONLY electric and hybrid vehicles have to pay so it is a valid cost of electric that must be factored into any cost of ownership/operation comparison. The gas tax is built into the price of gasoline that electric and hybrid are not paying yet it is still being calculated into the cost of operating an ICE vehicle. Fair is fair


----------



## davidcarmichael (Nov 2, 2019)

Flyinfool said:


> Yes tax is tax and there is no way to know where the money is actually going once collected. BUT this is still a tax that ONLY electric and hybrid vehicles have to pay so it is a valid cost of electric that must be factored into any cost of ownership/operation comparison. The gas tax is built into the price of gasoline that electric and hybrid are not paying yet it is still being calculated into the cost of operating an ICE vehicle. Fair is fair


So why not a mileage, vehicle axle weight, and pollution tax? 
Maybe politicians owe some favors to the hydrocarbon business.


----------



## Flyinfool (Nov 3, 2019)

davidcarmichael said:


> So why not a mileage, vehicle axle weight, and pollution tax?
> Maybe politicians owe some favors to the hydrocarbon business.


Actually that is exactly what the gas tax is, the more mileage you put on the more gas you burn, The heavier your vehicle the more gas you burn, the more polution you make the more gas you burn, the more gas you burn the more tax you pay. BUt electric was still free of helping to pay for the roads they use, until now.


----------



## cjtoombs (Nov 3, 2019)

One could solve the fuel vs electric with a tire tax instead of a fuel tax.  The upside is that it covers nearly all the bases of a fuel tax (mileage, vehicle size/weight).  The downside is that you would be paying a awful lot of tax all at once, which could raise the cost per tire by $100.  It would basically be the same money as the fuel tax, but people are much more sensitive to a big bill every once in a while than a small one much more often.  Of course, we could take the philosophy that everyone benefits from roads, and just pay for them with general tax revenue, as opposed to a use tax, at which point it wouldn't make any difference if your car was electric or burned wood.  Lots of ways to skin the cat, it's just the current way is being broken by electrics (and high fuel mileage vehicles in general).


----------



## davidcarmichael (Nov 3, 2019)

cjtoombs said:


> One could solve the fuel vs electric with a tire tax instead of a fuel tax.  The upside is that it covers nearly all the bases of a fuel tax (mileage, vehicle size/weight).  The downside is that you would be paying a awful lot of tax all at once, which could raise the cost per tire by $100.  It would basically be the same money as the fuel tax, but people are much more sensitive to a big bill every once in a while than a small one much more often.  Of course, we could take the philosophy that everyone benefits from roads, and just pay for them with general tax revenue, as opposed to a use tax, at which point it wouldn't make any difference if your car was electric or burned wood.  Lots of ways to skin the cat, it's just the current way is being broken by electrics (and high fuel mileage vehicles in general).



I agree. The paltry tax placed on gas doesn't come close to paying for the roads so let's just increase taxes progressively and only increase taxes on fuels based on carbon and particulate emissions (this includes tires and auto manufacture). Harm to the environment is what we need to discourage. It would be interesting to see how the price of gas would vary depending upon the VIN you scanned in.


----------



## JPigg55 (Nov 4, 2019)

davidcarmichael said:


> I agree. The paltry tax placed on gas doesn't come close to paying for the roads so let's just increase taxes progressively and only increase taxes on fuels based on carbon and particulate emissions (this includes tires and auto manufacture). Harm to the environment is what we need to discourage. It would be interesting to see how the price of gas would vary depending upon the VIN you scanned in.



Be careful what you ask for.
Food is a carbon based fuel for your body and the body releases particulate emissions. 
As for the paltry tax, I did a quick, conservative estimation.
I calculated 130 million drivers at 10 gallons per week with 30 cents/gallon tax for 52 weeks a year = a little under $20.3 trillion per year.
If you figure $1,000,000 per mile to put in a road, that's enough tax dollars to build 20,280 miles of new road every year.
Roughly 3,000 miles from LA to NY, that would build 6.75 new highways between the two every year. Even if you increase the cost to $3,000,000 per mile, you almost 2.5 cross country highways a year.
Can't speak to other places, but I have roads in my area that haven't hardly been touched in 10 years or more.
Makes one wonder where all the money goes ?


----------



## Superburban (Nov 4, 2019)

JPigg55 said:


> Makes one wonder where all the money goes ?


Like most taxes, it goes into the general fund. Then dived out how those in charge please.Several years ago, the voters here voted in a new tax to get more pay, and fix the buildings, and it all has to go to the schools. To everyone's surprise (Not), the county just reduced the amount of funding that comes from them.



Flyinfool said:


> Actually that is exactly what the gas tax is, the more mileage you put on the more gas you burn, The heavier your vehicle the more gas you burn, the more polution you make the more gas you burn, the more gas you burn the more tax you pay. BUt electric was still free of helping to pay for the roads they use, until now.


Too bad it does not work that way.

These big RV's built off a bus chassis, and the big tour buses are allowed a higher weight on each wheel, making them the worst destroyers of the roads. Up to 65,000 lbs, on 8 to 10 wheels. They get 8 to 10 MPGs.

Tractor trailers get 6 to 12 MPGs, and can range up to 80,000 lbs, on 18 wheels. (staying away from the many special circumstances, and over weight permit loads).

My Chrysler Pacifica, weighs 4330 lbs, and can be loaded up to 6055 lbs, and gets 28MPG's.

my 77 Pickup, weighs about 4800 Lbs, and can go up to 6100lbs, while struggling to make 8 to 10 MPG's.

My sisters 2018 F150, weighs 4590 Lbs, and can load up to 6360Lbs, and is averaging 27 MPG's.

While it is the best, and simplest way to attempt to assign cost to what causes the most wear, it is far from perfect.


----------



## JPigg55 (Nov 4, 2019)

Superburban said:


> Like most taxes, it goes into the general fund. Then dived out how those in charge please. Several years ago, the voters here voted in a new tax to get more pay, and fix the buildings, and it all has to go to the schools. To everyone's surprise (Not), the county just reduced the amount of funding that comes from them.



I know what you mean. Here in Illinois (one of, if not the worst State for this) they only fund about 25% of the school budget from property tax dollars which is what most of the tax was/is intended.
Even after they created the Illinois Lottery, which passed public approval because all the money was supposed to go towards funding the schools. Well, it turns out the money DOES go to the school system. Problem is that all the property tax money that was supposed to go to the schools gets re-directed to the General Fund on a dollar for dollar basis.
End result was schools didn't get a dime more and the scumbag politicians had $$$Millions", if not $$$Billions" of tax payer dollars to spend on things it wasn't intended for.

If I were "King for a Day", every one of those SOB's would spend the rest of their lives making big rocks into small rocks.


----------



## Flyinfool (Nov 4, 2019)

My point of bringing up taxes was not for the discussion of what the corruption and trickery of government, It was just to point out that when compairing the costs of electric vs fuel powerd cars you need to also include all of the costs including taxes that are suposedly earmarked for each, they are legitimate expenses that each type of vehicle is incuring and are part of the cost. What the govt does with that money or even IF the tax is fair is irrelevent to the discussion or the calculations, it is there so must be figured in.


----------



## JPigg55 (Nov 4, 2019)

My bad, got way off subject.

This is where the problem lies. Petroleum based fuels are easy to track and tax since the fuel pump at the gas station is pretty much the only place to get it. For the most part, its only uses is for ICE's. Consider you're even paying a road usage tax to mow your lawn if you use a gas powered mower. Not that much for most people so they don't complain, but look around your house at all the things that use electricity.
Electricity has a multitude of uses other than charging electric vehicles. How would they feasibly track the electricity used to charge your vehicles vs that used to pop popcorn and watch a movie on TV ?

The only feasible way I can think of is to put a tax on all electricity use (that wouldn't stomp all over the peoples God given, Constitutionally guaranteed rights). It's either that or a mileage tax that would require a way to track it. Imagine having to go to the DMV every month to let them check the mileage on all your vehicles, although I'd suspect they'd just make you pay a flat tax and then require you to go through a verification process to get any refund or pay additional tax if short (probably with fines and penalties if it's too much like with income tax).

You also have to consider the politicians point of view. Do you think they'd enact a tax that would be levied on millions of registered voters in major cities that don't even own a car and solely use public transportation ? They could, but I think it would be political suicide for them to do so.
And then you need to consider big business that fund them. Many of them would end up shelling out millions of dollars in taxes for power that wasn't used on highways. Given, they'd just pass the cost on to consumers, like they do with all taxes, but it may cost them a competitive edge over the competition as well.


----------



## Superburban (Nov 4, 2019)

JPigg55 said:


> It's either that or a mileage tax that would require a way to track it. Imagine having to go to the DMV every month to let them check the mileage on all your vehicles,


We have the technology. Big trucks have to pay tax to every state they drive in, based on the miles driven in that state (yes, they get credit for fuel taxes paid to other states, the old system, they had to buy fuel in each state). Most trucking companies have a satellite system that tracks all the miles, and routes driven. The alternative was that drivers had to write down their odometer at each state line, or somehow keep track of all the miles driven in each state. Several western states have been discussing mileage based taxes for 10 years or more.


----------



## Flyinfool (Nov 4, 2019)

In Wisconsin you have to go for an emmisions inspection every other year, at that time they record the mileage. So they are already tracking my miles driven. granted not all of it is in WI, and they are not yet thinking of a mileage tax. but they already have the data stream if they ever decide to do it. Right now they have the gas tax, the license fee, and the registration fees, and a wheel tax based on how many axels you have. (So a motor cycle pays the same as 2 axel box truck.) I think one is harder on the roads than the other. All of these taxes and any other that only apply to electric must all be used in the calculations of cost per mile. What the government does with the money is totally irrelevant and is fodder for a different discussion which will probably get shut down as to political.


----------



## JPigg55 (Nov 4, 2019)

Yes, the technology exists. It's the implementation that poses a problem.
Big trucks traveling the interstate highways have to either have an automated system that transmits the data to the weigh stations or they have to pull in and be inspected. They can hardly handle the semi truck traffic, so I think requiring every vehicle to pull in isn't going to work out well.
Adding a module to the vehicles computer with either a WiFi or Bluetooth transmitter could work, but would require installing the receiving antennas along just about every roadway.
And then how do you monitor for people who figure out how to bypass the transmitter or reprogram it to report a false mileage. I already see people who have made their own open source ECM computers using open source electronic modules. They do it to get better performance from their engines and avoid the way overpriced OEM computers.
I'd think doing this for an electric vehicle would be way easier than for an ICE. No doubt many people wouldn't bother and just pay the tax, but the government will make sure they get their money whether it's from all the people or just the ones that don't figure out ways to not pay.
It won't take long before the same problem arises that hit the fuel tax. Raise the tax and people get more fuel efficient cars and/or drive less resulting in less money. Government answer....raise the tax.
Same would go for electric vehicle tax. More people bypassing the system, fewer dollars coming in, raise the tax, an endless cycle.
The best idea I could think of would be to get rid of the fuel usage based tax and replace it with an "Infrastructure" tax that could be paid for by everyone as well as companies/businesses. Not only would it result in a less cyclic tax stream, but would be harder for the government to manipulate holding them more accountable for where and how they spend the money.


----------



## Superburban (Nov 4, 2019)

The new weigh station bypass systems, and the older fuel tax systems are totally different. Almost all new cars can be tracked by the manufacturer, the system is already built in. Look what Tesla did back in 2017. So the range was already built in, just a different software program for the shorter range cars. Heck, even my CPAP calls the VA everyday, and reports on my usage. Not only big brother, but everyone else is watching our every move.










						Tesla extended the range of some Florida vehicles for drivers to escape Hurricane Irma
					

The update unlocks the full battery capacity of 60 and 70 kWh vehicles through September 16th




					www.theverge.com
				




The best thing would be to get rid of all these user based taxes, and their costly collecting/ reporting  infrastructure, and replace it with one simple straight tax. But I know all the levels of government, and NGO's will not give up their control.


----------



## JPigg55 (Nov 5, 2019)

Superburban said:


> Almost all new cars can be tracked by the manufacturer, the system is already built in. Look what Tesla did back in 2017. So the range was already built in, just a different software program for the shorter range cars. Heck, even my CPAP calls the VA everyday, and reports on my usage. Not only big brother, but everyone else is watching our every move.



......and people are okay with that !!! The law has a term for that.....STALKING. It seems it's okay for government and corporations to do, whereas you or I would go to jail. Funny how entities seem to have more rights than people these days.

Okay, enough of the "Off Subject" discussion.
The Tesla example you quoted, I think they probably disabled a feature designed to prevent over draining the batteries. Doing that on a regular basis greatly reduces the life span of batteries, they don't like it. Makes me wonder if those people inadvertently just voided their battery warranty ?

They've made great strides in electric vehicles over the last decade, but the Achilles Heel still remains, the battery. Between the relatively short life span, high cost, and slow charge rate, I think it would take another major breakthrough for most people to accept them as an only option. The max range battery of even the Tesla's falls way short of the range of most gas vehicles these days. A gas or diesel vehicle can completely refuel in well under 10 minutes. A 10 minute charge on an electric vehicle, even with Fast Charge, isn't going to fully charge a drained battery.
I've always figured it would take advancements in super capacitors before people would fully embrace electric vehicles. Longer life span, cheaper to make, can be drained to nothing without harm, and can easily handle both fast charge and discharge rates. They just don't have near enough energy density to make them a viable option currently.

Guess I need to amend my previous statement since hydrogen is really nothing more than a battery for storing energy and it's cheap, clean, and renewable. But it also needs development before it can be a truly viable option.
That said, this is where my "Tin Foil Hat" goes back on. I don't believe Big Oil and their $$$ will allow any advances in hydrogen use as fuel to go mainstream. Even if developed, they will quietly buy up the technology and bury it unless they could completely control it.


----------



## Superburban (Nov 5, 2019)

JPigg55 said:


> ......and people are okay with that !!! The law has a term for that.....STALKING. It seems it's okay for government and corporations to do, whereas you or I would go to jail. Funny how entities seem to have more rights than people these days.


It amazes me how much people have invited the government, and corporations into their private lives. 60 years ago, their would have been protesting everywhere, now it "What else can I get to let you spy on my life", And "Where else can i go on the web, and post every aspect of my daily life?".


----------



## GreatOldOne (Nov 27, 2019)

Yes, I will be... as I already am. 








						New Car Day.
					

Picked up my new ride today. It’s a Hyundai Kona Electric. Yes. Powered by very angry pixies.    I’m pretty sure that she can do the Kessel run in 12 parsecs... she’s definitely got that instant electric acceleration & torque. Very “punch it, Chewie” if you catch my drift.  Don’t worry about the...




					www.hobby-machinist.com
				




Is it as well finished as my old diesel XF? No. Is it better specd, equipment wise? Yes. Is it cheaper to run? Hell yes. The Jag cost £80 on average to fill up, and that got me about 400-450 miles. The Kona has a quoted range of 300, and with careful driving the real world average is around 280. Im getting 250. A “fill up” from empty of the 64Kwh battery from empty would cost me £8 on my current electricity tarif. So for the same amount of money as a tank of derv I get 10 times the miles.

Yes, I’m aware that it’s not all in one lump - but the simple fact is I don’t need it be. Oh - and here in the UK, no road tax for EVs.

Loving it so far.


----------



## Latinrascalrg1 (Nov 27, 2019)

Honestly I believe within the next 10 years there will be many more self-driving electric transporter vehicles everywhere but the tendency to OWN your own car will diminish to the point where only diehards and Hobbyist drive cars anymore!  The Trend will be mass shared transportation with riders to anywhere at anytime with very accessible rates.  You can see it already happening in these Millenials, its hard to find a 16yr old EAGERLY  WAITING for his license anymore, it's crazy but it's happening!


----------



## Cadillac (Nov 27, 2019)

Well I think the automotive world is gonna go through some big changes in the next 10-20 yrs. I think that has driven cars will be the minority. I don't think gas will go away but will be at a premium so die yards like myself can still drive their classic cars. It should be interesting in the next couple years when the truck market will see a flood of new ev trucks. Will they perform like the petro workhorses of today. From what I've read it's still unproven a 400mile range might be greatly reduced when hauling loads and towing. I'll be watching
The wife and I have taken the plung into a EV car. We purchased a 2019 Chevy bolt last Saturday for the wife. Traded in her 05 Mini CooperS which was a great little go kart. We had been talking of it for acouple weeks now and with the end of year sales and "black Friday deals" they knocked nearly 15k off the sticker price, and I weaseled a 240v32a charger into the deal. Federal rebates end March of 2020 to so I wanted to get some of that. Since the purchased my wife has come home everyday with nothing but enjoyment and good things to say about the vehicle. As for worries of the battery I read the government mandated a 10yr/100,000 mile warranty which that's what the car has on battery and drivetrain. If at lower than 60-70% battery life at time the warranty ends I was told GM would replace the battery. Idk obviously but if so thats a pretty good deal in my book. Will see what happens in time but I feel good about doing it. We still have other cars but this will be daily commuter.


----------



## JPigg55 (Nov 27, 2019)

It's possible, but I still think EV owners of today will wake up in the not-so-distant future to a world where their vehicles are made obsolete. No trade-in or retail value, defunct warranties, and little choice but to keep driving them until dead or scrap them.

As for mass shared transport instead of ownership, it's possible. I see that trend now in large cities,  but rural transport would be a whole different story. I also think a lot of the trend towards not owning a vehicle is the cost vs benefit for a lot of young people. When you consider purchase cost, insurance, maintenance, fuel....many don't have the income with the ever increasing cost of living and ever reducing income and benefits.
I predicted many years ago that the continued trend of shipping manufacturing and jobs out of the country along with increased automation would drop the income and standard of living for most Americans down to the point no-one was buying their crap anymore.
That prediction is slowly becoming reality.


----------



## Cadillac (Nov 27, 2019)

JPigg55 said:


> It's possible, but I still think EV owners of today will wake up in the not-so-distant future to a world where their vehicles are made obsolete. No trade-in or retail value, defunct warranties, and little choice but to keep driving them until dead or scrap them.
> 
> As for mass shared transport instead of ownership, it's possible. I see that trend now in large cities,  but rural transport would be a whole different story. I also think a lot of the trend towards not owning a vehicle is the cost vs benefit for a lot of young people. When you consider purchase cost, insurance, maintenance, fuel....many don't have the income with the ever increasing cost of living and ever reducing income and benefits.
> I predicted many years ago that the continued trend of shipping manufacturing and jobs out of the country along with increased automation would drop the income and standard of living for most Americans down to the point no-one was buying their crap anymore.
> That prediction is slowly becoming reality.



Idk about these statements take a look a used tesla's on average their about 5k less than off the showroom floor. That's a pretty good resale in my book and it's not just tesla look around they hold a good value. As far as warranties with the researched I did it seemed they more catered to the consumer. They want the transition to electric to be trouble free and not scare away the consumer. 
 Ride share, uber and lyft have made a difference in how people move around the city. They have their market but like you said they don't do much in rural areas. Jobs and income are out there it's more of a problem finding qualified people to do the jobs. Yeah there's butt loads of minimum wage jobs too. Problem is young kids these days don't wanna put down the game remote and take of their comfy pants and slippers and go get them minimum wage jobs because mommy and daddy pay for everything. The youth need to be hungry not comfy and so dependent as they are. I have 11 nieces and nephews range from 8-22. 5 of them above 16 all have cars or have to share with siblings and not one of them paid for the car or the fees that go with it maybe gas but then moms giving money to go out. When I was 16 I had saved the money prior to from the jobs I had from the age of 12, and worked nearly everyday after school to afford the things I needed to do so. Ah getting way to off track here. It's a different world for sure but the jobs are still here just not the same as what my grandfather did.


----------



## JPigg55 (Nov 28, 2019)

For now, you are correct and will probably continue for a little while.
The problem lies with the batteries currently used and the power density along with charge & discharge rates allowed, and cycles before needing replaced. Without some major breakthrough in batteries that could be retro-fitted in current EV's, the ones currently on the road have a finite useful life span.
EV's make up maybe 1% of cars on the roads worldwide today, even less when your consider all other types of vehicles like pick-ups, semi's, etc.
Consider how many more batteries would be required for just 50% of all vehicles on the roads. That's a lot of batteries and a lot of electricity to charge them.
Enter any other green, renewable energy source that on par or cheaper than batteries and EV's go the way of the Do-Do overnight along with the resale value.

I also agree that kids of today lack the qualification and desire to work a lot of the jobs available, but technology and automation is greatly reducing the need for workers as well.
I also look at the fact that I had a good paying job before retiring. That said, I bought a brand new F-150 4X4 about a year after I started that job. The "Out the door" price was in the neighborhood of 30% of my annual gross income. That same truck today runs around 80% of my gross annual salary.
Then you consider maintenance costs. Simple thing like a headlight that used to run a couple bucks cost you $25 and up these days. I used to always replace valve stem with new tire changes for around $5 for all four. Now it's $10-$20 each plus the cost to program the computer to accept the TPS monitor in them. Speaking of tires, I remember being able to buy a complete set of good tires for under $200 with free mounting and balancing. That amount might get you 2 cheap tires today  and then add another $15-$20 per tire for the mount, balance, and other fees. The list goes on and many of those costs don't go away with changing to an EV.

Time will tell if EV's stay the wave of the future in transportation. I just think it's too big of a gamble right now. I also think that for most EV owners today, the EV is a second or third vehicle and not their only vehicle. There's always exceptions, but I think a vast majority fall into this category.
I've yet to meet the person who only owns EV's.


----------



## savarin (Nov 28, 2019)

Sheer luxury, when ar wert lad you would get a free handfull of oats fer te horse when you pulled up tut store.
Nowadays theres nawt around tet serve yer.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 28, 2019)

savarin said:


> Sheer luxury, when ar wert lad you would get a free handfull of oats fer te horse when you pulled up tut store.
> Nowadays theres nawt around tet serve yer.


You may be hiding out down under, but my guess is you fled from somewhere between Harrogate and Scarborough!

Oz is the land of the Tesla Mega-Battery!  -> LINK


----------



## savarin (Nov 28, 2019)

good guess but no cigar, I come from a tiny village called Bedfont on the edge of Heathrow Airport and later years King's Lynn in Norfolk.
I was attempting to emulate the Python Sketch from somewhere "oop North"



graham-xrf said:


> Oz is the land of the Tesla Mega-Battery!  -> LINK



And didnt that stir the possum amongst all the lib/nat pollies
I am really hoping for a huge leap in battery tech sometime soon but not holding my breath.
And as I said earlier small scale nuclear power will have to be used along with renewables.
I'm up to 5Kw on my house now and want to go larger.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 30, 2019)

I know there will likely come a point when the link will linger and die, but I put it here anyway, just to get an eyeful of what is coming. There are links to reviews, and some pricing.

Here --> LINK -  Every Electric Vehicle That's Expected in the Next Two Years

The shenanigans that accompanied Elon's Truck announcement apparently did not stop him taking 200,000 advance orders. Tesla fans are a loyal bunch. They will forgive promotional stumbles, expecting any shortcomings will be fixed by the time it is delivered.

Apparently Ultra-Hard 30X Cold-Rolled stainless steel that shrugs off 14-lb. sledge hammer blows without a scratch, and Tesla armor glass as standard for all.

CyberTruck --> LINK (Tesla's Hype)



Maybe the Dubai police force are also fans..


----------



## owl (Dec 1, 2019)

The energy storage will need to be much better than it is today.  Then our power grid will need to be rebuilt.  The power needs to come from somewhere, At current time peak power generation is from fossil fuel.  I understand that some areas already have infrastructure problems due to electric golf carts in retirement communities.


----------



## eugene13 (Dec 2, 2019)

We have a saying here in Colstrip Montana; plug in your Tesla and hope the wind blows.  Look us up on the net.


----------



## Superburban (Dec 2, 2019)

In 10 years?  Looking back, and thinking, I do not think there was a point in my life that I would have been right on my thinking of what I would be doing in 10 years. 10 years ago, We moved from Pa, to Co, and we said that would be the last time we ever moved. Then 4 years ago, we moved across town. I would like to think I will still be driving my collection of 77 & 85 (5 of em) Dodge trucks, but Who knows.


----------



## rwm (Dec 12, 2019)

Robert


----------

