# Where did all the people go?



## Larry$ (Jul 9, 2022)

There are more help wanted signs than political signs before an election. 
The guys that took over my business, when I retired, and where I still have my hobby area, ran an ad for a month. One guy showed up. 
They now have two semi loads of MDF to cut for another manufacture. Crowds the shop! That shop has a big panel saw but can't find an operator. Their operator retired when Covid hit. 

We just went through quality control checks. They found that our saw cut to as much as .002" over size to .004" under sized and .006" out of square on a 4' panel. We received certification as a provider. 1538, 55" x 145" x 1/4 in sheets to cut. The sheets are hard to handle because they are so floppy. Only going to cut a stack of 5 sheets at a time to reduce the risk of miss aligning them. I've been wondering how much the humidity is going to affect the sizes. In a week or two another semi load is due. Our saw man better get moving.


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## MrWhoopee (Jul 9, 2022)

It seems like a lot of people retired with the pandemic. My wife did. She says she may go back to work someday, but not in the same situation as before. I doubt she will.








						The Great American Walkout | National Fund for Workforce Solutions
					

The quit rate is the highest it has ever been. The number of people we see quitting today signals a broken economy.




					nationalfund.org
				




Unemployment is at a 50 year low of 3.6%, so there aren't that many bodies available looking for work. Wages for conventional employment have been stagnant for decades, not even vaguely keeping up with the cost of living.









						Home prices are now rising much faster than incomes, studies show
					

During the pandemic, home prices shot up while household income fell, creating an affordability crisis.




					www.cnbc.com
				




For the last century and a half, employers have had the upper hand. Not so much anymore. The internet has made it possible for people to work from home or otherwise generate income in unconventional ways that don't entail the expense of commuting, or even owning a car.

 The people are out there, they're just not interested in a 5 day, 40 hour week for $15/hr. with no benefits.


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## pontiac428 (Jul 9, 2022)

I think employers are being weird about hiring, too.  They advertise and collect resumes, but only 1 in 10 bothers calling back. 

My work unit is down to 40% staffing.  It takes at least a year of training and development to be functional in our system.  Last new guy arrived 18 months ago, but five left since then.  My job requires being on-site at least 1/3 of the time if you are extremely competent.  I work from home about one day a month, because I want to be where the work is happening.  The young folks out of college don't want to come to an office to provide good service to the organizations we serve.

We were all surprised when the "grey ceiling" that encumbered all the management positions suddenly retired without warning during COVID and the concurrent shift to online communication, the real last nail in the coffin for 80% of the Baby Boomers.  Now people with 5 years of experience are applying for jobs that should require 20 years to even qualify for... and getting them.  

I have a co-worker leaving soon, which will make me the only journeyman on my team.  That will put me at 300% of normal workload, and normal is another 2 positions short already.

We do get plenty of applicants and do plenty of interviews.  My organization is large, slow, and taxpayer funded, so by the time job offers are official, the applicants disappear, and the process has to start again.

It would all be so much easier if I could retire.  It's almost feasible.  I'll give it some thought.  Maybe work another few and retire at 50?


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## Larry$ (Jul 9, 2022)

MrWhoopee said:


> for $15/hr


$15!
One of my employee's 16 YO high school kids just got a job at a burger joint for $16. And I live in a cheap part of the country.


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## wrat (Jul 9, 2022)

Many years ago, at 19, I was Union Steward in a Tool And Die department of a well-known factory.
I've been in Management and Executive positions and finally some Consulting in the last 2 decades.
This pendulum swings. Both sides have advantages and gripes.  Times change.  Sometimes month to month.

There's always a punk that doesn't wanna work.  It's that way no matter what the job market might be.  Flakes be flakes.

There's always a sucky business model with a chiseling tyrant in charge.  It's that way no matter what the job market might be.  

My 18 year old grand-daughter just hired onto an Architecture firm - straight outta highschool - for $20/hour.  But at $5 gas, maybe $8 soon, that's not a king's ransom, either.  She likes it BECAUSE it pays nice, just like YOU liked YOUR first job making some coin you never had.  The firm understands that good help (with a tiny bit of skill) is gonna cost a few shekels.   Some firms won't ever get that through their head and they'll suffer and complain trying to lowball every applicant.

And then there's the sucky business models.  Those are too numerous to describe.  Everything.  Like the boss that isn't REALLY leading, and Heaven forbid he delegate, but simply a guy that works there with the most power.  From that to the Exec that knows nothing about anything except what his spreadsheets - and ultimately his secretary - tells him.  And everything in between.  Who do they blame?  Not themselves; not ever.  

And Heaven help you today if you're over 55.  45 in some circles.  If you're not in a tightly knit group of Management, you're gonna be out in the cold.  Between quotas, stats, and insurance, you're the new undesirable-hire and they have well-crafted ways of discriminating against you because you represent someone that will statistically increase insurance costs and probably not work Saturday for free.  Seeya!

I'm not out of the game just yet.  Doing some work for a helicopter firm right now.  But it's nothing like it's ever been ever before.


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## Nutfarmer (Jul 9, 2022)

It’s hard to find anyone to fill the lower paying jobs. Farm workers are especially hard to find. Who can blame them ?  I have had to be creative just to keep help. Housing is so expensive in our area that I have been proving housing. Don’t know what I am going to do when he retires. It used to be part of growing up and who you were to have a job. Not any longer. With the dangers of farming and all the regulations it’s hard to hire teenagers no matter even if they grew up on a farm. Looking at where my helps kids are now they don’t want to work that hard. His three girls all have college degrees. One even has her masters.


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## Asm109 (Jul 9, 2022)

Gee,  maybe immigration might be a solution.


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## Nutfarmer (Jul 9, 2022)

Legal immigration has been good for our country. Some of our smartest people have been immigrants. Just one example was Tesla.


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## Aaron_W (Jul 9, 2022)

I retired at the end of 2017 and considered finding a part time job, but nobody wants to pay a decent wage for my time. There is a fabrication shop that does CNC and welding I wouldn't mind doing some work for but their starting wage is less than McDonalds or Starbucks and they expect people to work 50 hours a week, part time is not an option. I still have a child in elementary school and have enjoyed my Mr Mom time, so not really interested in full time employment.

I'm staying plenty busy working for my old employer. Between all the fires and their difficultly filling positions I've been working as much as I want, when I want. The past two years I've worked close to full time 6-9 months of the year with far less stress since I have no employees to supervise, no meetings, and no long term expectations. They are just happy to have an experienced employee available to fill a spot.  Really the only downside is I'm away from home a lot since most of the work requires travel, but they pay me for that too.

It is a different world that employers are going to have to adapt to or die off.


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## Janderso (Jul 9, 2022)

We just got back from a Southwest and Pacific Northwest trip.
Every town we went through had, Help Wanted or Now Hiring signs all over the place.

I just wonder what those people that were working, before Covid, are doing now to eat and pay the rent? Forever Unemployment has stopped and the stimulus checks aren't coming anymore.
There seems to be a lot of employers in this country that can't find help. This starts with low skill jobs to the skilled vocations.

I know I couldn't replace a 20 year veteran auto tech to save my life. Now with the industry changing over to electric vehicles, the shortage will get worse, as traditional automotive mechanical repairs will be slowly dwindling.

I got out at a good time.


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## great white (Jul 9, 2022)

I did 30 years in the military, 20 of that in front line SAR.

Got so busted up (physically and mentally) the flight surgeon looked at me one day on an annual aircrew medical and said “I just can’t let you do this to yourself anymore”. Then they medically retired me. Basically, I was given a golden parachute.

That was 2019, just before the pandemic.

Help wanted signs are all over the place here as well.

But I’ve done my time and made my bones. Wife and I are comfy where we are and set up well for finances (pensions, disability, insurance, savings, investments, medical benefits, etc).

Not getting me back into the workforce again. Ever. I feel no shame in it either.

I’ve paid my dues, time to actually live my life the way I want to….time for the next generation to pick up that torch. If they don’t want to, so be it. They’ll find out in short order that SAR is one of those things the world can’t do without for very long.


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## jbobb1 (Jul 9, 2022)

great white said:


> Not getting me back into the workforce again. Ever. I feel no shame in it either.
> 
> Like I said; I’ve paid my dues, time to actually live my life the way I want to….


Retirement is just a few months away for me, and I can relate to this. Almost 50 years of blood, sweat and tears makes a man old before he's time!


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## great white (Jul 9, 2022)

jbobb1 said:


> Retirement is just a few months away for me, and I can relate to this. Almost 50 years of blood, sweat and tears makes a man old before he's time!


Probably a lot of why the people seem to have “disappeared”.

We’ve known for decades the workforce is old and only getting older. People working longer and “stopping up” the senior positions hasn’t helped either. 

I’ve been part of many senior meetings and Tiger teams at 1 CAN Air Div trying to figure out what to do about 75% of our senior personnel coming up to mandatory retirement age (of which I was one). Lots of ideas thrown around, but it always came back to recruitment for the bottom end and things like mentorship programs to get the middle experienced people up to speed faster. But it never would pan out becuase you just couldn’t recruit fast enough to replace the bodies falling off at the top end. Basically, we were facing the same issues civvie street was and we couldn’t get much more traction than the civilian side of things.

When you look at the ages compared to the jobs, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out we were rapidly approaching a “mass retirement” event, everywhere, and the subsequent labor market problems.

I’d say covid just bumped that time schedule up by a couple years and we would have been dealing with the same issues, just a few years later.


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## mmcmdl (Jul 9, 2022)

wrat said:


> Doing some work for a helicopter firm right now.


Owned by Textron by any chance ?


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## mmcmdl (Jul 9, 2022)

jbobb1 said:


> Retirement is just a few months away for me, and I can relate to this. Almost 50 years of blood, sweat and tears makes a man old before he's time!


Same here and I agree , but dayyyum do we have fun !


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## mmcmdl (Jul 9, 2022)

My one boss says the company has about 2 years left at the rate we are going . No machinists , no mechanics , no operators ...............but plenty of fresh out of college chart makers starting at $125 K a year . Well jeez , wonder what the problem is ?


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## RJSakowski (Jul 9, 2022)

Several years back there was all the uproar about a $15/hr minimum wage.  As a result, many of the employers at the lower end of the wage scale started increasing their starting salary.  Most are paying close to, if not more than $15.hr.  

If you can make $15/hr flipping burgers while listening to your favorite playlist on your earbuds or jawing with your fellow workers, why would you want to take a job where you might actually have to break a sweat or have a modicum of responsibility to answer to for $15 or even $20?    

Employers will fill their vacancies if they raise the hourly wage high enough to make it irresistible to workers.  Then of course, the wage/salary increases will have to ripple up the hierarchy.  As a result, the cost of goods will increase as well and all of a sudden, that $15/hr is not a living wage again.  There is a name for this; inflation.

Unfortunately, all of us who are living on fixed incomes with savings that we ser aside years ago will have found that our buying power has decreased in inverse proportion.


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## great white (Jul 9, 2022)

RJSakowski said:


> Several years back there was all the uproar about a $15/hr minimum wage.  As a result, many of the employers at the lower end of the wage scale started increasing their starting salary.  Most are paying close to, if not more than $15.hr.
> 
> If you can make $15/hr flipping burgers while listening to your favorite playlist on your earbuds or jawing with your fellow workers, why would you want to take a job where you might actually have to break a sweat or have a modicum of responsibility to answer to for $15 or even $20?
> 
> ...


Guess I should be grateful my pension is indexed to the annual cost of living rates.

if it goes up, so does my pension. If it goes down, my pension stays the same…


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## Aaron_W (Jul 9, 2022)

Janderso said:


> We just got back from a Southwest and Pacific Northwest trip.
> Every town we went through had, Help Wanted or Now Hiring signs all over the place.
> 
> I just wonder what those people that were working, before Covid, are doing now to eat and pay the rent? Forever Unemployment has stopped and the stimulus checks aren't coming anymore.
> ...



I think a lot of dual income families went to single income during the shut down and have realized that without child care costs and commuting expenses that they can survive on one salary and actually have a parent home with the kids. That is a lot of potential employees opting out of the workforce without it being a case of them having no income, simply a budgeting adjustment. 




great white said:


> Guess I should be grateful my pension is indexed to the annual cost of living rates.
> 
> if it goes up, so does my pension. If it goes down, my pension stays the same…



Me too, and since my retirement pay cost of living is hard tied to inflation this past year I got the biggest cost of living raise I've had in the last 10 years. My salary was loosely based on inflation indexes, but reality was whatever congress / the president decided to give us. Since 2010 it was practically nothing, 3 years of a freeze followed by 4 years of 1% which was well below inflation.


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## mmcmdl (Jul 9, 2022)

So i saw this the other day on FB . Big ad . 4 years ago , the mechanics didn't make this much . I had to dig it up . So an operator can still make $100 K a year with no experience .   









						Packaging Machine Operator  Aberdeen, MD Hiring Event 7/12 (Aberdeen, Maryland) | Frito-Lay
					

**Registered Hiring Event Candidates Preferred**<br><br>	The Packaging Machine Operator is responsible for setting up and operating assigned packaging machines and...




					www.fritolayemployment.com


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## wrat (Jul 9, 2022)

wrat said:


> Doing some work for a helicopter firm right now.





mmcmdl said:


> Owned by Textron by any chance ?


Uh, no.  That particular helicopter factory I've done work for several times, but there's a number of helicopter firms that operate small fleets that require some of my engineering/legal/bureaucratic background.  I prefer the smaller companies, anyway.  Done work for Textron's airplane subsidies as well.  I don't say "never again" but I tend to feel that way.

For years, we'd giggle about "may you live in interesting times" way back when headlines read of a blue dress.  Today, we're seeing what 'interesting times' are starting to look like.  It's gonna get a lot more so.

Unfortunately, there's only one reason a business shuts down.  One cause.  Management.  I didn't say bad or poor management - though that's by far the most common - just Management not making the proper decisions, foreseen or not.  

Today's company cannot possibly express out loud the kind of help they want without fear of lawsuit.  Just because it made the last few generations prosper doesn't mean it can be spoken today.  They can't express anything they wanna shy away from for the same reasons.  In fact, most HR departments, for reasons that cannot be speculated, are headed and staffed by women which result in bias and sway in directions the Boardroom often does not want.  Seen it many times and only corrected a time or two.

Increasing numbers of young men are MGTOW (look it up).  They have no desire to support a family.  They have no desire to get married.  Why?  You have only yourselves to blame.  They've seen what happens.  They marry a girl and she divorces him and takes his kids and half his stuff.  So they don't play that game.  Without that goal and plan, why would they care if their career was anything but easy?  Companies got away with exploitative conditions for years because of family responsibilities.  Those days are changing and not for the good.

Today's Manager (and Exec) must learn some real organizational jiu-jitsu to survive.  Instead, many are caught like deer in headlights with a blank stare.  I recommended to one company, that was dying from retirees, to hire mid-level replacements, not youngsters, but 1) pay them 40% more and 2) change their job description to include training two people half their age.  They looked at me like i had three heads.  No idea how to think like that.

If you're in the middle of it, Heaven help you.  It's gonna be frantic and frustrating.  If you're out of it - or can just pick and choose (like me) - then you're in for some entertaining times.


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## Janderso (Jul 9, 2022)

RJSakowski said:


> Several years back there was all the uproar about a $15/hr minimum wage.  As a result, many of the employers at the lower end of the wage scale started increasing their starting salary.  Most are paying close to, if not more than $15.hr.
> 
> If you can make $15/hr flipping burgers while listening to your favorite playlist on your earbuds or jawing with your fellow workers, why would you want to take a job where you might actually have to break a sweat or have a modicum of responsibility to answer to for $15 or even $20?
> 
> ...


RJ,
Your insight is spot on. 
I believe you understand the subject matter very well.


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## Provincial (Jul 10, 2022)

For those of you that are happy with your Cost Of Living pension increases:

When you get a COLA pension increase, it is based on the official inflation rate (which is fudged to make it much smaller than the real rate of inflation) for the prior year.  This means that you have suffered paying the higher prices for a year without getting a boost.  Each year inflation goes up, you fall that much further behind.  You will never make that back, except in cases where overall costs (not just certain sectors, like tech) go down, and very few of us have experienced that, and even then, it was for a short period of time.

Pensioners must remember that the politicians respond to those they need the votes from, and if you are no longer in that group, you can expect to go to the back of the line.  Once enough of the Boomers die off, the remaining ones will be in the financial crosshairs.  The younger generations that have to pay taxes to support the pensions will get to pick how you will be treated.

BTW, I'm a Boomer, and I am not expecting my benefits to hold up much longer.  Inflation is the hidden knife cutting retirement benefits, and it is "non-confrontational" in that the politicians don't have to go on record as supporting benefit cuts.  I have made other plans.


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## Provincial (Jul 10, 2022)

wrat said:


> Uh, no.  That particular helicopter factory I've done work for several times, but there's a number of helicopter firms that operate small fleets that require some of my engineering/legal/bureaucratic background.  I prefer the smaller companies, anyway.  Done work for Textron's airplane subsidies as well.  I don't say "never again" but I tend to feel that way.
> 
> For years, we'd giggle about "may you live in interesting times" way back when headlines read of a blue dress.  Today, we're seeing what 'interesting times' are starting to look like.  It's gonna get a lot more so.
> 
> ...


Right on!  Management is not coping with the situation.

The public sector is several orders of magnitude worse!  Not only do they have to deal with these problems, but they are completely incapable of dealing with them because of ingrained social "goals" that limit choice in both management and hiring.  I can't go into detail without being controversial, but I have first-hand experience, and it is only going to get worse - and fast!

RJ's post is just a peek into the darkness.


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## Provincial (Jul 10, 2022)

I "retired" over ten years ago.  Since then I have been working my rear off managing land that my wife and I accumulated.  It is our safety net for our "Golden Years" and will be more reliable than IRA's, pensions, and 401k's.  Neither of us show up as either employed or unemployed.  Our businesses do make money.


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## ddickey (Jul 10, 2022)

mmcmdl said:


> So i saw this the other day on FB . Big ad . 4 years ago , the mechanics didn't make this much . I had to dig it up . So an operator can still make $100 K a year with no experience .
> 
> 
> 
> ...


$28/hr is not $100k.


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## savarin (Jul 10, 2022)

I retired 11 years ago, the last 8 years of my job had the most abysmaly incompetent managers I have ever had the misfortune to work under.
That place is virtually empty now, only part time teachers who cant teach and luckily hardly any students to suffer under them.
Training is something that seems to have gone out the window. Australia is always recruiting overseas (where I came in) but the pandemic shut all that down.
I dont see it changing anytime soon.


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## mmcmdl (Jul 10, 2022)

ddickey said:


> $28/hr is not $100k.


With OT and 2X they could make well over 100K per year . You can work as many hours as you please !  12 hr. Saturdays and 16 hr. Sundays were the norm at Unilever . Anyone walking thru the door was making over 100K and you were FORCED to do it ! I did it for 15 years .

Straight 8 hrs a day / night . 40 + 12 sat ( OT )+ 16 sun ( 2X ) = 68hrs x $28=$99,000 per year . Work a little OT during the week also puts you well over $100K . These are people who can walk in off the street with no knowledge .


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## ddickey (Jul 10, 2022)

That's the way it used to be here and some techs ruined it nowadays for us.
No ot.
But you can't include ot into a yearly wage. Because I may work more than the other guy.
If you do work OT like that what's wrong with making 100K which is nothing nowadays. Especially where you live.


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## mmcmdl (Jul 10, 2022)

I have to agree . But for someone young and willing to work it's not bad . These plants run 24/7 365 days a year . The lines never go down . It was cheaper for the company to pay OT and 2X for good people than to hire more people and bennys . Like I said , I worked 7 nights a week for 15 years , and grew to love it . Never missed a family event either .


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## ddickey (Jul 10, 2022)

You're probably like me as I love my work and would be there more if I was allowed.
I work at a generating plant that will be shutting down their last unit in 8 years so corporate has decimated their budget. The plant is in really bad shape what was once a pinnacle in the fleet. Sad to see what is going on but I digress. 
I guess I shouldn't blame the old guys from the past because nowadays it seems more of a budget thing in regards to the OT.


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## projectnut (Jul 10, 2022)

MrWhoopee said:


> It seems like a lot of people retired with the pandemic. My wife did. She says she may go back to work someday, but not in the same situation as before. I doubt she will.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The unemployment number is inaccurate at best.  It doesn't reflect the actual number of unemployed, but rather the number actively seeking unemployment benefits.  If you're not seeking employment, working for cash under the table, are self-employed, or have run out of unemployment benefits you are not counted as part of the "unemployed" population.

In times past the overwhelming majority of people were employees of companies that paid into the unemployment systems.  That's changed drastically over the last 20 years.  Now days there are huge numbers of people in the "gig" employment sector.  They are essentially independent contractors.  The company letting the contracts doesn't include them as employees, doesn't pay into the state unemployment fund, and doesn't pay unemployment benefits when the contract expires or is terminated.  The only way these people would be counted as unemployed is if they voluntarily paid unemployment taxes for themselves.


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## mmcmdl (Jul 10, 2022)

The Unilever plant was shut down in 2014 for the same reason . Once the biggest soap manufacturing plant and only BDA plant in the US , they pulled bars out to Indiana leaving only liquids . Bars was the cash cow of the company so we knew something was up . They dropped the ball with WISK competing with P&G's TIDE and the liquids starting losing ground . They sold North American liquids to Sun Products which is now a part of Henkle out of the west . It was once a great place to work , nobody ever left on their own . Sad to see these companies leave , but there are still some in the area .


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