# The Vaccine(s)



## graham-xrf (Nov 15, 2020)

The question from my daughter got me thinking..
"Hey Dad - you qualify to be among the first. Are you going to get in there from the start, or wait to let some others be be victims sorting out the flaws first"?

This is a more subtle question than stuff about a disproportionate effect from anti-vaxer disinformation campaigns via social media, which may overwhelm true information, whether anti-vaccination or not. I would not hesitate!

 I guess us older folk, having less time to go for whatever is left that is good in life, are somewhat less concerned about risk!


----------



## T Bredehoft (Nov 15, 2020)

I, for one, am standing in line to get my vaccination as soon as possible. I'll still wear la mask, in public, but I want that shot. Yes, I'm in the second most needy group, Senior Citizens. Once I have it, I know I won't be  spreading infection.


----------



## vtcnc (Nov 15, 2020)

I'm going to preemptively warn any members from replying to this with a political viewpoint. There is plenty of room to have a discussion about vaccination information and your intentions without dragging everyone into the political mud pit.

As for me, I'm inclined to get the vaccination once it is released and cleared all of the hurdles it needs to clear for public safety. I'm 46 and just got my flu shot. Yup had an adverse reaction (although mild) but that is what your body can do (inflames and creates anti-bodies) when it is introduced to a vaccine.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 15, 2020)

vtcnc said:


> I'm going to preemptively warn any members from replying to this with a political viewpoint. There is plenty of room to have a discussion about vaccination information and your intentions without dragging everyone into the political mud pit.
> 
> As for me, I'm inclined to get the vaccination once it is released and cleared all of the hurdles it needs to clear for public safety. I'm 46 and just got my flu shot. Yup had an adverse reaction (although mild) but that is what your body can do (inflames and creates anti-bodies) when it is introduced to a vaccine.


Oops. Sorry Bryan.
My perspective was from UK. Here, the efforts to the getting of a vaccine is not correlated with preferences in politics.

There is some concern in UK about effective take-up after previous experience with a MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella), debilitating to children, but deadly to adults without any immunity. A dishonest research claim about links to autism was exhaustively checked out over some years, and no connection was found, but even now, MMR is blighted by folk believing social media campaigns.

My life has been so messed up by needing to shield, here in the country, like some sort of hermit. I am going to be there for mine first chance I get, even if I have to stand in line in winter rain, spaced 2m with a mask on!

[Edit] Re: Flu jab adverse reaction. That is exactly the best thing to happen. You need the body to teach itself how to recognize and attack that strain. Unfortunately, surviving flu rapidly mutates, so regular re-vaccination is needed.


----------



## addertooth (Nov 15, 2020)

graham-xrf said:


> [Edit] Re: Flu jab adverse reaction. That is exactly the best thing to happen. You need the body to teach itself how to recognize and attack that strain. Unfortunately, surviving flu rapidly mutates, so regular re-vaccination is needed.



This is true of any virus that uses Reverse Transcriptase as it's replication method.  This is true of other known viral diseases out there like HIV and Covid.   If people think Covid will be "one and done" on a vaccination, then you do not understand the virus.  When it mutates (and it will), we will be on the vaccine train for years.   Reverse Transcriptase replication is very sloppy and error prone, it introduces a very high mutation rate in any virus that uses that mechanism.  As such, an effective vaccine which worked well the previous year, will not match (and defend against the virus), a year later. 

This is the thing the scientists are not telling you right now.  Even naturally achieved resistance (resistance gained by getting sick with it) will face similar hurdles.  I will not get into the discussion on whether this virus was naturally occurring; I will leave that to others.  I have read through the Chinese-published sequencing of the genome.  I would like to see someone else repeat that effort and compare the results .


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 15, 2020)

While UK has pre-purchased some millions of doses of the already announced Pfizer vaccine, there is also the NHS funded Oxford University with AstraZeneca development. They have not finished safety testing yet. Neither has Pfizer, but they announced early

In the longer term, when the safety of multi-vaccine strategies are proven, we may end up with a vaccine cocktail with components to protect us as well as attack the virus genome. Maybe in the end, we get longer term treatments prescribed between several, though not all at the same time.

Regarding mutation, indeed it already has (mutated). In UK, the testers checking an outbreak were able to know not to lockdown a whole community, because they could tell the strain DNA was from a localized European continent travel import occurrence. Everywhere, starting with 17 million in Denmark, the entire mink population is being destroyed, though I dare say they might be keeping the furs. The mutated COVID was seen to infect humans. They always knew that mink were prone to SARS-Cov-2, which causes COVID-19, so perhaps it is not a surprise.


----------



## markba633csi (Nov 15, 2020)

I'm going to let my doctor decide.  I'm keeping in touch with them.  When he says "come on in",  I'll go get it.  
-Mark


----------



## Larry$ (Nov 15, 2020)

I'm 78 & diabetic so high risk. One of my G-kids was exposed & came down with it. I'm now staying away from people, even more than before. Will get the shot(s). Very bored.


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 15, 2020)

This is the HOBBY-MACHINIST if you guys want to have a political discussion do it on the Practical Machinist..... That stuff is not allowed here!


----------



## middle.road (Nov 15, 2020)

They're saying that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored at -70°C (-94°F).
I'm curious as to our infrastructure, both here in the US and elsewhere, having the specialized equipment available to handle those temps.
Those are some serious high-end systems.
Then there is also mention of the grade of glass needed for the vials to handle the ultra cold being in short supply.
So many questions. . .


----------



## addertooth (Nov 15, 2020)

Middle.Road,

I have been following the Defense Contracting office actions.  They have purchased the very high end freezer systems, and funded production of the appropriate syringes.


----------



## RJSakowski (Nov 15, 2020)

middle.road said:


> They're saying that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored at -70°C (-94°F).
> I'm curious as to our infrastructure, both here in the US and elsewhere, having the specialized equipment available to handle those temps.
> Those are some serious high-end systems.
> Then there is also mention of the grade of glass needed for the vials to handle the ultra cold being in short supply.
> So many questions. . .


-78ºC is the sublimation temperature of dry ice at atmospheric pressure.  Some dry ice in a styrofoam enclosure will meet those requirements.  This is a common method for shipping and handling biologicals.  Dry ice is fairly common.  There are many facilities that can make it.  It can be made in small quantities by allowing compressed CO2 to expand into a cloth bag although not very efficiently.  There are numerous manufacturers of machines for making your own.


----------



## mcostello (Nov 15, 2020)

Not getting it, don't get flu shots either.


----------



## alloy (Nov 15, 2020)

I found out minutes ago that my brother in law is positive.  He's an intelligent guy and I know he takes precautions. He works at Norco health supply so he knows what he's doing more than most of us.  If he can get it anyone can.

I'm inclined to wait a week or two after they start giving out the vaccine for my group. I am high risk due to age and preexisting conditions.   But I don't want to be he first whether it's politically correct or not.  People see an old guy and I swear they avoid me more that 6 ft.  Which is fine with me.  I was just in Winco (large grocery chain here) and I saw a few people without masks. Just as we were leaving they were telling people over the loudspeaker that that will deny service to anyone without a mask, and you can get a free mask for the asking.  About damn time.

With what............180K new infections per day I won't go past my driveway without a mask.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 15, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> That stuff is not allowed here!


Please have a look at post #3 and my post #4. Very definitely carefully done.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 15, 2020)

@RJSakowski  :
Definitely if any of the approximately 44 vaccines that come out are able to be stored and used at near room temperatures, they will have a distribution and costs advantage.

As it is right now in UK, there is a massive effort to set up "refrigerated delivery chains" including final stages of insulated boxes with dry ice, and a whole return infrastructure to have the boxes returned, sterilized, and refilled. The bets are that getting milliions of doses given to folk is an appointments logistics nightmare likely to have some problems!


----------



## 7milesup (Nov 15, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> This is the HOBBY-MACHINIST if you guys want to have a political discussion do it on the Practical Machinist..... That stuff is not allowed here!


I don't think anyone here is talking politics.  It is a valid discussion.


----------



## 7milesup (Nov 15, 2020)

My concern regarding the Covid vaccine is whether I can have it at all.
I am allergic to the flu shot, so haven't had one in a number of years, which bums me out.  Not sure if the Covid vaccine will fall under the same "family" as the flu shot.
The last time I saw my doctor he wanted to know if I wanted a flu shot.  I asked him if he was itching to practice his tracheotomy skills?!  "Oh, nevermind".


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 15, 2020)

.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 15, 2020)

7milesup said:


> My concern regarding the Covid vaccine is whether I can have it at all.
> I am allergic to the flu shot, so haven't had one in a number of years, which bums me out.  Not sure if the Covid vaccine will fall under the same "family" as the flu shot.
> The last time I saw my doctor he wanted to know if I wanted a flu shot.  I asked him if he was itching to practice his tracheotomy skills?!  "Oh, nevermind".


Along with common cold, various influenzas, the virus(s) have a corona nature. The flu vaccines are intended to "infect", and provoke the generation of antibodies, and the making of cells in the plasma that will attack and destroy a virus, basically by recognizing them, attaching to them, and having in effect a "suicide signal" marking the combination to be turned into body waste material.

The vaccines have their working parts stripped out, attenuated, and weakened such that they can't make you ill with the original flu, but may have fluids, preservatives, and other stuffs to aid delivery into the blood. One of these could well be the trigger for your allergy. I think there are ways to check for allergy by testing against a small blood sample, without direct contact to the person.

I recognize the risk you run, and the awful choice, but it is worth saying that while the new vaccines are made to work against a virus with similar features (it's a corona shape), there is reasonable chance that the vaccine substances are very different, and might reasonably not cause an allergic response. For you, it might use up two vaccines. One to check allergy, and one the real deal.

Can you not check out sensitivity from a little test surface scratch, like they do to identify other substance allergies?


----------



## Norseman C.B. (Nov 15, 2020)

If three layers of clothing and a* mask* won't stop a fart what good is it  ??


----------



## higgite (Nov 15, 2020)

middle.road said:


> They're saying that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored at -70°C (-94°F).


I dunno about you guys, but I sorta hope they at least rub the vial between their hands before they shoot me up with it. I suspect that an icy chunk of blood or two could have an unintended consequence in this old body.  

Tom


----------



## RJSakowski (Nov 15, 2020)

I will most likely wait out the initial vaccinations.  I would like to see some of the results first.  I have been in vitual quarantine since the beginning of March, having ventured out only about a dozen times and more than half of those alone on a boat in the middle of a lake.  With winter coming on, the likelihood of me leaving my 12 acres is even less.  My wife has taken over food shopping and we order our food on line and it is deposited in our vehicle with no human -human contact.  We quarantine all incoming mail packages, etc. for period of several days and wash hands often.

That is not to say that there is a zero probability of me contracting COVID but the probability is about as low as it can be.  As such, I feel fairly comfortable with waiting to see the effectiveness pf a vaccine and if there are any complications.  Ultimately, I would get vaccinated as I don't believe that this virus is going away anytime soon.  Taking all the precautions will lower the probability of contracting the virus but it won't reduce it to zero.


----------



## Flyinfool (Nov 15, 2020)

There is no way they can know at this point in time how long the vaccine will protect you. I will wait a while to see how things go and make my decision once it has been around for a while.


----------



## RJSakowski (Nov 15, 2020)

There are definitely a lot of unknowns left to be resolved.  Certainly, a 10% chance of contracting the virus anyway doesn't sound too good to me, considering I'm betting my life on it.  However figuring probabilities as a matter of multiplying all the individual probabilities so adding a factor of 0.1 to the product is a good idea. So if I combine the probability of the virus getting past the vaccine, the prrobability of it getting past my mask, that of a person being within striking distance for a significant amount of time, and the person actually being contagious, the odds are in my favor.  

Anyone who has done an FMEA for failure knows that the cause for concern is proportional to the product of the probability for failure and the severity of the consequences.  As someone of advanced age and with underlying health issues, the severity part is fairly great.


----------



## matthewsx (Nov 15, 2020)

markba633csi said:


> I'm going to let my doctor decide.  I'm keeping in touch with them.  When he says "come on in",  I'll go get it.
> -Mark



This is the most logical I think....

John


----------



## jpackard56 (Nov 15, 2020)

7milesup said:


> My concern regarding the Covid vaccine is whether I can have it at all.
> I am allergic to the flu shot, so haven't had one in a number of years, which bums me out.  Not sure if the Covid vaccine will fall under the same "family" as the flu shot.
> The last time I saw my doctor he wanted to know if I wanted a flu shot.  I asked him if he was itching to practice his tracheotomy skills?!  "Oh, nevermind".


I'm in the same boat. I also am allergic to many pain killers. I was exposed to morphine for an extended time while in the hospital in a 3/4 halo years ago and it was some 23 other drugs in succession to phase my body system away from the morphine. So now I have too be very careful with even x-ray dyes. So NO vaccines for me.


----------



## 7milesup (Nov 15, 2020)

graham-xrf said:


> I recognize the risk you run, and the awful choice, but it is worth saying that while the new vaccines are made to work against a virus with similar features (it's a corona shape), there is reasonable chance that the vaccine substances are very different, and might reasonably not cause an allergic response. For you, it might use up two vaccines. One to check allergy, and one the real deal.
> 
> Can you not check out sensitivity from a little test surface scratch, like they do to identify other substance allergies?



Thank you for the insight as to how this stuff works. 
I have a meeting with my new doctor in December so I will ask him about this situation.  The other doc I had just retired a couple of months ago.  Maybe I won't say anything to the new doc, get the Covid vaccine but only after making sure I can stumble over to the ER.  LOL.  (just kidding)


----------



## 7milesup (Nov 15, 2020)

jpackard56 said:


> I'm in the same boat. I also am allergic to many pain killers. I was exposed to morphine for an extended time while in the hospital in a 3/4 halo years ago and it was some 23 other drugs in succession to phase my body system away from the morphine. So now I have too be very careful with even x-ray dyes. So NO vaccines for me.



Yikes.  That is not a good spot to be in...


----------



## MontanaLon (Nov 15, 2020)

Flyinfool said:


> There is no way they can know at this point in time how long the vaccine will protect you. I will wait a while to see how things go and make my decision once it has been around for a while.


This is a very valid concern as well as the long term effects of the vaccine which will be unknown for several years. Of course the potential long term effects of the virus itself will not be known for years as well. We have heard so much hype about different things that it is impossible to not have a large grain of salt along with anything anyone tells you these days.

There was some indication early on that getting the virus itself didn't confer immunity so if you had it once you were not out of danger of getting it again. If that is the case then the likelihood of permanent immunity from a vaccine are very low indeed. Let's not forget that many of the viruses with cause the common cold are in fact coronaviruses themselves and there has never been any indication of long term immunity from colds. But even that is a virtual unknown as there are several hundred confirmed viruses which cause cold-like symptoms, so there is no way of knowing without testing everyone who "catches cold" and sequencing the genome of the virus precisely which virus is responsible and if the patient is reinfected with the same virus again or not. That would get awfully expensive for "just a cold". 

There have been reports of significant organ damage in those who have contracted the virus. Now, I don't know how much of those reports are valid and how much is hype, but selling newspapers and ad time on news channels is all about hype over truth these days. Which muddies the waters considerably.

And that is before you even get into the mutation of the virus. The question becomes when the mutations happen, will they reduce this virus in lethality or just make it so it is unrecognized by the antibodies generated from the last exposure and make everyone susceptible to another round of the same illness? Even if there is widespread vaccination will the mutations make that effort moot? 

There really isn't anything political about that. Just a bunch of unanswered questions. Could vaccination cause a loss of fertility in those who receive it? The truth is we don't know and won't for a long time. Of course that is an extreme example of a side effect and for a large percentage of people, particularly those most at risk, not a concern. But the other side effects which are being published by those in the vaccine testing phases should be at least a little concern for those at risk. Why? Because the vaccine trials have been happening in young healthy people who were screened for preexisting conditions before being admitted to the trial. They report side effects of the vaccine which are virtually identical to the symptoms of the virus for a significant portion of those who are infected. What will be the result of those side effects on those with preexisting conditions like advanced age? Any of the other comorbidities which increase the chance of complications? 

Just something to ponder.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 15, 2020)

RJSakowski said:


> Anyone who has done an FMEA for failure knows that the cause for concern is proportional to the product of the probability for failure and the severity of the consequences.  As someone of advanced age and with underlying health issues, the severity part is fairly great.


This risk probability perception thing is something I have tried to impart to my son. I have made it pretty clear that he is the only vector, and I do not want him tracking the pestilence onto my patch. The isolation has not only stopped COVID-19. The last time I had a cold of any kind was around November 2019 !

I distinguish between the probability of getting it, and what my chances might be if I do get it. I am old enough to be in the high risk group, and I have a pre-existing condition. We have thus ..

*1.* The total population mass probability of catching it. This is low at any (say) hour, but given time, and a increase factor greater than 1, the so-called "R" number, eventually, pretty much everybody ends up getting it. Various test 'n trace & lockdown strategies get the number below 1, and it dies out.

*2.* The different probability of catching it and recovering. Another quite low number, but here comes a complication.

Does one recover without permanent damage that can affect later, or one's whole life? It depends on how great was the battle, which organs and tissues were infected first, and how much of your body was wasted in defeating it. e.g. A person with (say) lots of spare body fat where the virus got going can result in such a viral load that as the immune system fights it, other organs can fail. Suppose you win, and "recover". There can be nerve damage, brain, liver, kidney, and of course, lung damage. My point is, when the possible consequence is severe enough if you get unlucky, you are not impressed by any probability above zero!

*3*. You "recover". No, you are not immune forever, like you would be from chicken pox, where you have the fight with it daily. T-cells response to COVID-19 starts falling off after about 6 months. Also, I read that "second time round" infections, involving a boosted immune system battle, can be somewhat more "uncomfortable" than the possibly minor symptoms first round.

*4.* So suppose you are looking at a probability of between *2%* and *16.6%* of a bad outcome if you do get it. This could be from (say) age and pre-existing condition. The odds get worse if you end up in ICU, and if it gets to needing a ventilator - I don't even want to know!
Did you give up smoking 30 years ago? Do you have COPD? Do you have high blood pressure? I won't expand on the list, because my point is about probabilities. I don't want to get careless about even 2%.

[The larger number (*16.6%*) is also the probability of the first bullet being unfortunate in a Russian Roulette scenario] !


----------



## randyjaco (Nov 15, 2020)

I am73 and am in reasonable health. I will probably get the vaccine, but I will not be first in line. I plan to wait a month or so and see how things go, Then make the decision. There have been a couple of instances in the past where new vaccines didn't do so well. I would rather not be a guinea pig.


----------



## Superburban (Nov 15, 2020)

Some of these vaccines are a new idea of triggering the immune system, then the way the flu vaccine works, so allergies or previous reactions to the flu shot may not be a issue. But how much testing is really being done, as to long term bad effects. 

After 30 years, they still do not know what the cause of the Gulf War Illness is. The Anthrax vaccine is still not ruled out. But i suspect politics is a big factor in the poor research done over the years.

I dunno, I am still on the fence as to whether I would take it, or let some around me take it. A lot will depend on which one will be offered in this area, and what I can find out about it. After many bad reactions, I research any drug quite a bit prior to taking any.


----------



## mksj (Nov 15, 2020)

I still do some consulting in biotech, one company is involved with the COVID vaccines. The main vaccines being studied for COVID are completely different then previous vaccines which were traditionally killed or attenuated  vaccines. The main COVID vaccines being evaluated are genetically engineered mRNA which is taken up by the immune system replicates the COVID protein/antigen to stimulate an immune response.  Reactions to other drugs and vaccines should not have cross reactivity to these types of vaccines.  So other allergies should not be a contra indication. It does get a bit more complicated if one has an auto-immune disease or is being treated with medications to suppress/alter the immune system. There have been limited clinical trails studying the vaccine in different age groups, and the majority of reactions were mild akin to getting the flu shot, and older people had similar reactions as younger. The activity of the vaccine was also found to have similar activity/efficacy with regard to immune response in all age groups. It was also found to stimulate an immune response to different strains of the virus which is encouraging. I know this is a medical article and they can be challenging, but I like to provide some reference from direct sources.


			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2022483
		


As far as storage and handling, what is know as ultra-low freezers (-80-90C) are common in the medical industry/hospitals, these may be needed for long term storage/stability, but there may be sufficient stability at lower temperatures for shorter time frames like months or weeks (this is based direct work experience). This also goes for the containers, although the supply chain is a limiting factor. The challenge will be gearing up for a massive worldwide vaccine programs and in many areas with very limited medical resources.  There are a number of options as to how this may occur, and much is still an unknown at this massive scale that has not been seen in medical history.  No one knows how the immunization programs will role out, most likely front line individuals at medical centers/clinics and higher risk groups will be addressed first.

There are several Phase 3 trials that are ongoing in which you have a placebo (no active drug) group and a treatment group, both recieve vaccinations but no one knows who received which. They are evaluate for both side effects and also exposure/infectivity (cases) of COVID as well as outcomes. These studies are monitoring by an independent medical safety committee and there are often assessment points at statistical events (X number of COVID cases or safety events). These trials involve 30,000-70,000 individuals, I haven't looked at the specifics, but the bottom line will be looking at the safety and the number of COVID cases/severity between the different treatment arms. There are a host of other endpoints that are also incorporated into these trials to look at subgroups and immune response.  Suffice it to say, it would be encouraging to see a high level of suppression/attenuation in the active arm. I personally would like to see a 80-90% level of suppression/efficacy, but the the FDA has set the bar at 50% for consideration of approval. There also may be some differences between the different vaccines as they become available.  The unique characteristic of a genetically engineered vaccine is it can be easily and relatively quickly adapted to different strains, and can be mobilized much quicker to market. These mRNA vaccines are also being adapted to many other vaccines/treatments, so not unique to COVID. Long-term side effects are not known, but many of us do not have the option of waiting years to see what happens, there have also been numerous other similar mRNA vaccine trials that have been ongoing so this is just not a COVID thing.

So it comes down to  should one take the COVID vaccine and to some degree which one, and when might I/we be eligible.  I am assuming that many of us fall into the older (over 50) group, so we will probably be in the 2nd or 3rd wave of vaccinations, at that point several million front line workers will have been vaccinated and there should be further safety information as the vaccination program unfolds. There will also be quite a bit of post marketing surveillance with regard to safety and possibly efficacy.  So at that point if the data looks promising I will get the vaccine, and although I have no allergies I did have severe paralysis from the flu vaccine 20+ years ago and have not had a Flu shot since then. Long-term, I think COVID vaccinations will be an ongoing recurrence as strains mutate, the hope is that there is enough homology (antigenic similarity) between strains that the severity of the infection well be diminished post vaccinations.

Just my thoughts on this subject.
Mark


----------



## MontanaLon (Nov 15, 2020)

Superburban said:


> Some of these vaccines are a new idea of triggering the immune system, then the way the flu vaccine works, so allergies or previous reactions to the flu shot may not be a issue. But how much testing is really being done, as to long term bad effects.
> 
> After 30 years, they still do not know what the cause of the Gulf War Illness is. The Anthrax vaccine is still not ruled out. But i suspect politics is a big factor in the poor research done over the years.
> 
> I dunno, I am still on the fence as to whether I would take it, or let some around me take it. A lot will depend on which one will be offered in this area, and what I can find out about it. After many bad reactions, I research any drug quite a bit prior to taking any.


I had a full course of anthrax vaccination because I went to Africa when my Dad was stationed there. The whole family got it actually. I'd say that it had no adverse effects but then y'all don't know my family like I do so I could say it and you might expect it to be true. But I know my family and really can't rule out any adverse reactions in the long term.


----------



## Superburban (Nov 15, 2020)

MontanaLon said:


> I had a full course of anthrax vaccination because I went to Africa when my Dad was stationed there. The whole family got it actually. I'd say that it had no adverse effects but then y'all don't know my family like I do so I could say it and you might expect it to be true. But I know my family and really can't rule out any adverse reactions in the long term.


Many of us got an untested/ unapproved/ classified form of an anthrax vaccine. They really thought we would be in some type of a biological, or chemical environment, that they went and gave this stuff out. Still classified as to what it was, but the Army says it was not the source of our mysterious issues.  

There is also several other possibilities, including giving us 15 vaccines within one month. So the true cause will never be known.


----------



## middle.road (Nov 15, 2020)

Norseman C.B. said:


> If three layers of clothing and a* mask* won't stop a fart what good is it  ??


Here's the difference in the size of a fart vs. the size of virus. Fart is measurably smaller, much smaller.


----------



## macardoso (Nov 15, 2020)

Found this very interesting and informative regarding the discussion of cold chain transportation.


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 16, 2020)

I asked my Doctor the other day how long he thinks this Covid scare will last... He said "How should I know I'm not a Politician."


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 16, 2020)

For so many of us HM members, our demographic is about an older part of the population. To get around to actively indulging one's hobby makes that so. Some of us get to the point of having more money than time, though possibly not a great amount of either. This affects how much we value what we have left, and inevitably also affects the risk we would take in going for a vaccination. One does not give two hoots for the downsides of "long term effects" as yet undetermined.

When I was a child, in Africa at the time, there was the worldwide effort to put down polio. Even at my junior school, there were some kids with leg-irons and crutches. The vaccine was novel - a "live" vaccine. My Dad was opposed to it. He didn't mind medicine, but he could not accept that putting a live sickness into a child could be good.

Wrongly, I steered clear of those kids. Then came the oral form of the vaccine. All us kids were lined up during school time, and given the sugar cube with the drop of vaccine.  We came home _de facto_ vaccinated, but I didn't mention it to him, to avoid a row. The polio scourge became a rarity. I guess that is the impression that drives my acceptance of this medicinal technique now.

Smallpox was also eradicated! The only place  it remains is in a laboratory, and the ony recent incident involved a lab accident. There is a case for incineration. I get it that our methods involve tricking our own immune system into taking it on, and that we do not know to the last molecule exactly how this works, but at least we know that it does - because we try it out! This is not like believing the exhortations of a quack salesman, nor the hearsay of a socal media driven mob, repeatedly seeded by some deluded anti-vaxer zealot!

[Edit: I truly feel for those with the awful dilemma of being allergic to some vaccines!]


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 16, 2020)

macardoso said:


> Found this very interesting and informative regarding the discussion of cold chain transportation.


I am impressed by this. It confirms my perception that when exactly you and I get to line up for our shot is going to be later than we think!
This  because the task of distribution is so huge, and so affected by how we behave right now. The planes are mothballed, or being scrapped, and the pilots laid off.

Planet-wide, humans are not very good at behaving for a collective effort. Like with everything else, there will be the haves, and the have nots, and the me-firsts, and the I am richest(s)!


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 16, 2020)

“…the fear factor has got to step back. This idea that I don’t want to give you something that I don’t even know that I have is almost at the point of ridiculous. Let’s use some common sense.”









						Medical Doctor Warns that “Bacterial Pneumonias Are on the Rise” from Mask Wearing - Global Research
					

Important article by John C. A Manley. First published in October 2020 “A group is suing Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum and Tulsa Health Department Executive Director Bruce Dart, saying the city’s mask mandate is harmful to healthy people,” reports Activist Post. [October 2020] The group includes...




					www.globalresearch.ca


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 16, 2020)

.......wow really...... how did that violate the rules????


----------



## macardoso (Nov 16, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> “…the fear factor has got to step back. This idea that I don’t want to give you something that I don’t even know that I have is almost at the point of ridiculous. Let’s use some common sense.”
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Despite the formal website name (which caught me by surprise at first), the validity of the source needs to be questioned.









						Michel Chossudovsky - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




I fear we my be diverging into the political discussions end of the conversation which is not allowed on HM.


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 16, 2020)

macardoso said:


> I fear we my be diverging into the political discussions end of the conversation which is not allowed on HM.




Yeah I said that back on page one.....


----------



## middle.road (Nov 16, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> macardoso said:
> 
> 
> > I fear we my be diverging into the political discussions end of the conversation which is not allowed on HM.
> ...


Not if we stick to verifiable facts...


----------



## vtcnc (Nov 16, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> “…the fear factor has got to step back. This idea that I don’t want to give you something that I don’t even know that I have is almost at the point of ridiculous. Let’s use some common sense.”
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The problem I have with the opinion piece in the quoted link is that it is a political writer using the quotes of others and summarizing those bits in a way to fit the author's world view narrative. _And if you read the byline of the author_ - his motivation is clearly political and self serving - this is a sneaky way of talking about science but from a political motivation.

For this reason, I'm going to leave this post up and if others choose to read the piece, their opinions may vary. However, I will lock the post if the discussion goes beyond the political boundary - as blurry as it is in this case.

I think Dan is correct - let's "stick to verifiable facts" if we are going to make any claims outside of our non-political opinions.


----------



## vtcnc (Nov 16, 2020)

RJSakowski said:


> There are definitely a lot of unknowns left to be resolved.  Certainly, a 10% chance of contracting the virus anyway doesn't sound too good to me, considering I'm betting my life on it.  However figuring probabilities as a matter of multiplying all the individual probabilities so adding a factor of 0.1 to the product is a good idea. So if I combine the probability of the virus getting past the vaccine, the prrobability of it getting past my mask, that of a person being within striking distance for a significant amount of time, and the person actually being contagious, the odds are in my favor.
> 
> Anyone who has done an FMEA for failure knows that the cause for concern is proportional to the product of the probability for failure and the severity of the consequences.  As someone of advanced age and with underlying health issues, the severity part is fairly great.


We finally got through to my 18 year old son last week on this. His employer doesn't wear masks (12 employees in a 10,000 sqft warehouse/office). What made him get it? I told him that he doesn't want to be the guy that everyone is blaming for ruining the holidays. I hate playing the guilt card, but when put to him this way, it hit home. He has been wearing his mask everyday since. He is taking a fair amount of ribbing at work over it, but a few others have secretly thanked him via text messaging and are wearing their masks now. Strength in numbers. Moments like this that make me proud of that young man!


----------



## mcostello (Nov 16, 2020)

Masks are cheap, easy to use. Don't know if They work but it is not a burden to use Them.


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 16, 2020)

mcostello said:


> Masks are cheap, easy to use. Don't know if They work but it is not a burden to use Them.



Its a huge burden to wear them while I'm working.... I can't breathe and everyone yells at me if I uncover my nose so I can get some fresh air..... I run around huge commercial buildings with a 20lbs tool belt, 10ft ladder and 50lb boxes of Cat6a all day and It gets my heart rate up...... I need to be able to breathe so I have to take long breaks and the customers complain about as well..... I have deadlines to make and bills that don't stop.....


----------



## vtcnc (Nov 16, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> Its a huge burden to wear them while I'm working.... I can't breathe and everyone yells at me if I uncover my nose so I can get some fresh air..... I run around huge commercial buildings with a 20lbs tool belt, 10ft ladder and 50lb boxes of Cat6a all day and It gets my heart rate up...... I need to be able to breathe so I have to take long breaks and the customers complain about as well.....


This is that part of the pandemic that we all could have a little more compassion about. On the one hand, we have people wondering why people won't where their masks. On the other hand, we have people forced to wear masks for 8 hours or more - arguably more than doctors normally wear them outside of a pandemic - and then we freak out when they want a little longer break, or need a breather, or god forbid they complain about wearing a mask.

This is a big change for EVERYONE. We could all do well to try and have some empathy and listen to each other.


----------



## dewbane (Nov 17, 2020)

I'm pretty skeptical of the idea of managing this particular virus with a vaccine, and I'm not going to be in any hurry to go get my shot. Based on the reading I've been doing, I am placing more faith in treatment. Doctors seem to be zeroing in on effective treatment options, based on how different people react to the virus. Some cases are worse than others, possibly due to genetic reasons, environmental factors, and so forth. I'm not up to date on all the research at this moment, but last time I was, it seemed like a safer place to put my bet than on vaccines that were rushed to market.

I'm taking a cautious, wait and see approach. I haven't been sick in years. I haven't contracted COVID-19, in spite of traveling in and out of hot zones for a living. Maybe all the cat **** I ate as a kid has left me with a killer immune system, or maybe I'm crazy due to latent toxoplasmosis.

I mean I *do* have a hobby where you spend $25,000 and 50 hours to avoid buying a $30 part, right? I'm obviously a little touched in the head.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 17, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> Its a huge burden to wear them while I'm working.... I can't breathe and everyone yells at me if I uncover my nose so I can get some fresh air..... I run around huge commercial buildings with a 20lbs tool belt, 10ft ladder and 50lb boxes of Cat6a all day and It gets my heart rate up...... I need to be able to breathe so I have to take long breaks and the customers complain about as well..... I have deadlines to make and bills that don't stop.....


I get it that masks can be an annoyance, but we also know that one can manage, just like operating theater surgeons have to do for hours on end. I found on eBay, a plastic face shield, a pair for less than five bucks. Peel off the thin plastic protective film, and you are good to go. Its incredibly lightweight, and  lets you breathe easy, even when under exertion. I clean mine off with alcohol, and keep re-using it.

Face down those who would mock. Wearing a mask, or face shield makes the statement that you do care about others around you, and that you do not want to go around being a potentially deadly public health hazard!

Whatever you do - DO NOT underestimate this pestilence. What happens to those who get it varies wildly, and even for those who apparently recover with hardly any effects, they should not be complacent. They may be carrying the damage that will debilitate their life quality 10 years down the line!

We have learned a lot about this thing since last March. What happens with it, how it spreads, and how to limit it is the stuff of extremely hardball science. Testing and trying to discover facts - and I mean REAL facts which have the essential element of truth in them! In time, we will discover pretty much all of it. I do sometimes worry that folk who read only preference profiled, social media stuff, already filtered to only be what they want to hear from a group they feel to agree with; can be big enough, and loud enough to assert a wrong version of what is fact. The UK anti-vaxers were responsible for agonizing deaths in children. It took years, and millions in research to face them down!




Even if one has the constitution of  Iron Man, fully immune, shot full of vaccines, whatever, you can still have a viral load replicating in you, you won't have symptoms, and you can be leaving it on every surface you touch, and breathing out your vapors past any family sitting near you!

This is one thing where everyone can show they can pull together with other folk. It won't be forever. Humans are damn smart, and we will defeat this thing!


----------



## alloy (Nov 17, 2020)

Speaking of vaccinations, I got the TDAP and first round of the shingles vaccine yesterday.

They warned me about the shingles vaccine, but I never have any reaction to vaccines.  Last night felt like the worst night of my life.  Chills, headache,  fever, zero sleep..  I dd my best to keep it from my wife, she's still freaked about our brother in law being positive.

After this (its still not over)  I will think long and hard getting the second round of shingles shots.

I have a UPS package to go out today, it's 45 lbs and I could barely get out of bed.  I'm going to pay the $16.40 and have them pick it up.   There is no way I can lift it right now.


----------



## macardoso (Nov 17, 2020)

alloy said:


> Speaking of vaccinations, I got the TDAP and first round of the shingles vaccine yesterday.
> 
> They warned me about the shingles vaccine, but I never have any reaction to vaccines.  Last night felt like the worst night of my life.  Chills, headache,  fever, zero sleep..  I dd my best to keep it from my wife, she's still freaked about out brother in law being positive.
> 
> ...



Shingles is a nasty one though. I personally still would get the second round. My best friend got it in college at 20 yo. (uncommon I know). He was very sick for almost 3 weeks with significant lingering side effects for years after.


----------



## T Bredehoft (Nov 17, 2020)

mksj said:


> The main COVID vaccines being evaluated are genetically engineered mRNA


Thank you Mark, for being the  voice of logic and reason in this no longer political discussion.
Yes, the new "vaccination" is not like the old ones, there is hope in the possibility of future mutations being affected.
At 81, I do not fear long-term problems. If I can survive another ten years I will feel blessed. Beyond that my body will no longer support the wishes/desires of my mind and I don't really care what happens to it. [Edit] I'll probably feel different in ten years.
I want that vaccination so I can move about society without fear of infecting others. I had just decided to travel a bit in my last years, see some of this great world we all share, and along came Covid-19.
I'll be on my way in two or three months, hopefully.


----------



## vtcnc (Nov 17, 2020)

Cooter Brown said:


> .......wow really...... how did that violate the rules????


sent you a PM so as not to hijack this thread with our discussion.


----------



## middle.road (Nov 17, 2020)

I'm having the same problem, and I'm not having to lug around tools, and a box of Cat6.
I'd try some different brands/type of masks if you can.
I finally found a blue version of the surgical mask style that seems 'breathe' easier found them when we went for our flu shots at CVS.
The nurse gave us a half dozen but I didn't pay attention to the make/mfg.

A few months ago I placed an order at lowes for pickup. Best intentions and all that.
Of course they messed up one item and the lady at the pickup counter did not, for some odd reason, want to get an associate to run back and get the correct item. All she wanted to do was to remove the item from the order.
So I had to go get it. And of course it was all the way at the back corner of the store.
I was totally out of breathe after I booked it back there, and had to stop and catch my breath.
At that time I was using a mask I had picked up at the hospital. That brand didn't seem to breathe easily.
When this first hit I was using a 3M Series 6000 respirator until I realized that they exhaust your exhaling through an open valve. 



Cooter Brown said:


> Its a huge burden to wear them while I'm working.... I can't breathe and everyone yells at me if I uncover my nose so I can get some fresh air..... I run around huge commercial buildings with a 20lbs tool belt, 10ft ladder and 50lb boxes of Cat6a all day and It gets my heart rate up...... I need to be able to breathe so I have to take long breaks and the customers complain about as well..... I have deadlines to make and bills that don't stop.....


----------



## middle.road (Nov 17, 2020)

And now Moderna’s Covid Vaccine has been announced and it doesn't require the special 'cold' handling.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 17, 2020)

It seems the Oxford University AstraZeneca version may also not require extreme cold conditions.

It is possible that the Pfizer vaccine, in the end, need not have the cold requirement. They announced early. Undertaking the separate tests to discover the temperature degradation properties takes a long time, so Pfizer may have simply defaulted to the worst case storage requirement for the time being. We don't know yet.


----------



## T Bredehoft (Nov 18, 2020)

graham-xrf said:


> so Pfizer may have simply defaulted to the worst case storage requirement



A good possibility, we probably will never know.


----------



## mksj (Nov 18, 2020)

T Bredehoft said:


> A good possibility, we probably will never know.



It is actually known, one of the areas I work in on advising companies. It is a matter of stability over time and expiration time under various scenarios. Long term storage in distribution centers will most likely require ultra-low refrigeration. These centers are required to have 24/7 monitoring, inclusive of transport there are various temperature monitoring equipment when this occurs depending on the fragility of the drug.  Most of this is worked out in advance, I often advise/design/review these studies at different points in the drug development process, as well as administration and marketing. I also do medical safety review for ongoing trials. The nature of these types of vaccines is they do degrade faster with warmer storage temperatures. So you may see months at -20C and weeks or days at 4C. If there is a high turnover of vaccine, then not a problem. It is a concern  if one does not track these temperature changes then the vaccine could degrade and become ineffective. There are other limiting factors as well with packaging the product and dosing/administration.  It is a bit more of a complex process that each company needs to sort out, provide a safety margin and also comply with country specific medical requirements. At this point it is a bit of a horse race between the different COVID vaccines in the pipeline, and part of the PR campaign.

As far as individuals having flu like symptoms from vaccinations, to some degree this is expected as you are generating an immune response to a vaccine protein/antigen. It is also much more complicated as to the type of vaccine. In some people this may be mild in others more significant, but these typically last a few days at most. In rare case there may be long term reactions as I experienced (guillain barre syndrome) which didn't show up for months after the vaccination. The estimated risk is around 10-40 per 1 million vaccinations, but highly variable on the vaccine and other factors.  Often initial vaccinations are given in a series of 2 or 3 injections/administrations,  typically with 1-2 months between the 1st and 2nd. A single injection you might have 60-70% of individuals being effectively vaccinated and the second dose boosting that to 90-95% effective. Shingrix the Herpes Zoster Vaccine is a good example, a single vaccination is about 90% effective in individuals in the 50-70 Y/O, but above 70 only 70%. A second vaccinations brings this up to ~95% for all groups. Well worth the short term discomfort vs. the getting Herpes Zoster which increases with age.


----------



## rwm (Nov 18, 2020)

MSKJ-That's good info thanks!
I am due to get either shingles or the vaccine! I think I am going to hold off until I see how the Covid vaccine plays out. I don't want 3 different vaccines in a short period of time no matter what the safety profile. (Influenza, Herpes Zoster and SARS cov 2)
Robert


----------



## MontanaLon (Nov 18, 2020)

We are currently having a severe outbreak in my area. The hospital is full and then some. Then there is the fact that many of the staff of the hospital have been infected with the virus. This is no longer April in New York where the hospitals were jammed and there was not enough PPE for proper use. Today, there is no recycling of PPE on multiple patients. All of the staff that has been infected were adhering to all of the precautions. All of the precautions were ineffective. 

For the last week we have had about .15% of the population of the county testing positive for the virus. A significant number of the positive cases have been asymptomatic but so far those reporting the test results have not been forthcoming with the actual numbers of asymptomatic cases. That number is extremely important in order to judge how widespread the actual infection is in the county. The majority of the asymptomatic positives seem to be coming from people who are having elective surgery or being cleared for visiting the doctor's office for other procedures. 

What we can assume is that the actual number of cases is some multiple of the actual positive tests but there doesn't seem to be any interest in doing any randomized testing of the population in general to discover what that number actually is. The rate it is spreading now is beyond being able to stop and will result in the virus burning itself out in a relatively short period of time. Currently about 1% of the population of the county is testing positive in a week. That is about 3 times higher than the national numbers which suggests the virus has already infected more people in more densely populated areas and is no longer spreading as fast in areas that had higher numbers in the spring. That indicates herd immunity is suppressing cases in at least some areas of the country.

It is very likely that before the vaccine is widely available the virus will have burned itself out in most areas.


----------



## rwm (Nov 18, 2020)

I would be careful about waiting on herd immunity. I have seen estimates that it would take 70% of the population to be infected for that to occur. 
I agree it would be really nice if we had random community samples to see where we are. In Gaston County NC right now we have a 6.8% positive rate out of 32000 tests. The problem with that number is it is not random and likely skewed up by symptomatic cases who went to get tested. 
Robert


----------



## MontanaLon (Nov 18, 2020)

rwm said:


> I would be careful about waiting on herd immunity. I have seen estimates that it would take 70% of the population to be infected for that to occur.
> I agree it would be really nice if we had random community samples to see where we are. In Gaston County NC right now we have a 6.8% positive rate out of 32000 tests. The problem with that number is it is not random and likely skewed up by symptomatic cases who went to get tested.
> Robert


That is the problem with the lack of transparency on the numbers. We are getting positive cases only and to find any other information we have to go looking. Our positivity rate is 14% right now. The lack of any numbers of symptomatic vs asymptomatic among those tested is very troubling. If they were only testing symptomatic people now like they did at the start of the testing and finding 14% of those with symptoms were positive it paints a very different picture than if all the tests were on asymptomatic people and the positivity rate was 14%. 

I guess my problem with it is we are being told the results of testing and they are treating it like a peer reviewed double blind study and people are buying it. If the virus is as easily spread as they say and clearly it is given the fact that health care providers are contracting the virus even with all of the recommended precautions then it is likely that the virus has in fact infected far more people than the testing has caught up to this point.

There is a lot of smoke and mirrors going on surrounding the virus. Things that should be looked at are not being addressed and things that are unimportant are being treated as the holy grail of information. 

Nothing is as it seems.


----------



## mksj (Nov 18, 2020)

It is true that "Nothing is as it seems", but there is extensive data available in different areas with this regard, it is a matter of extracting valid  information and presenting it in a meaningful manner. In many case people want to believe what they want, and there is also a lot of smoke a mirrors. The main focus has been to try to contain the rate of spread so that hospitals are not overwhelmed, and we are back at the breaking point with this aspect. Many countries are now in lock-down mode because of the recent increase. PPE's are not 100% effective, part of this is training and part is people are not 100% compliant. There are numerous peer review publications to show that the transmission of COVID relates to compliance with use of PPE's, as to infectivity with healthcare workers, we are looking are extremely high risk factors for transmission and in many cases lack of adequate PPE's.  Looking at it as a whole "The prevalence of COVID-19 was 2,747 cases per 100,000 among frontline health care personnel compared with 242 cases per 100,000 in the general community", and the those workers in nursing homes and assisted living are 2-3X higher risk than compared to hospital settings often due to poor training and lack of PPE's. PPE's help, they are not 100%, I personally find it a joke they way people wear  masks with their noses exposed or otherwise and that one can think that some piece of fabric is going to provide proper protection. Proper PPE's have a rating for particle size, require proper fitment and training.  None of which has been provided to the public, let alone people even using masks. So it is all a matter of degrees, but if you think that PPE's don't work, then ask your doctor not to wear one when he does a surgical procedure on you.








						Personal Protective Equipment in Medical Settings
					






					www.idsociety.org
				




I am very doubtful that heard immunity will occur in the near future, the whole concept is a bit abstract and is a bit simplistic,  this is not going to go away at that point. I started in medicine before we knew what HIV was, so similar statistics and statements of outcomes, all to the point of moderating the severity of the epidemic that was occurring. I ran the HIV clinic, participated in many of the HIV trials that brought drugs to market and the eventual ability to treat the disease. I also had 2 crews of my staff pass in the process and countless other friends/associates, after the original premise that only 10% of HIV infected will go on to develop AIDS. We all new at the time it was going to be 100%, and each year they revised the percentage. They have been trying to develop a vaccine for HIV for decades with little results. So we tell little white lies to diminish the impact. Yes, nothing is as it seems, but to have a vaccine that can provide neutralizing antibodies in 90-95% of vaccinated individuals is going to have very tangible and meaningful impact long before we see heard immunity from direct exposure and millions more people dying.  We know vaccines can/do work, the preliminary findings on the ongoing COVID trials supports that in a significant manor which has been unprecedented in modern times. If you question vaccines, I though Ebola if it broke out would disseminate populations in the most horrific manor. A vaccine was developed and release in 2019 that has demonstrated 100% effectiveness vs. a mortality rate of ~90% if contracted. A matter of choice and risk.








						First FDA-approved vaccine for the prevention of Ebola virus disease, marking a critical milestone in public health preparedness and response
					

FDA announced today the approval of Ervebo, the first FDA-approved vaccine for the prevention of Ebola virus disease (EVD), caused by Zaire ebolavirus in indivi




					www.fda.gov


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 19, 2020)

@mksj :
Hi Mark. I wonder you can help on whether folk who have "recovered", maybe having a period of relative immunity, can encounter, and pick up a replicating viral load that they can be spreading?

They may be without symptoms, and the virus in them may be doomed (herd immunity?), but are they still a public health hazard, because having "had it", they think measures to halt a runaway spread of the virus no longer applies to them?


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 19, 2020)




----------



## GunsOfNavarone (Nov 19, 2020)

I'm sure someone has already said this, but I picture I AM LEDGEND and the cancer vaccine...


----------



## middle.road (Nov 20, 2020)

1,962 deaths yesterday attributed to Covid.
This virus does not appear to be _burning _itself out any time soon. It is overwhelming our medical facilities, and that should concern all of us.
The undeniable fact is that if you have a unrelated medical situation that requires an immediate trip to ER, will they be able to treat you?
Will you be able to get the needed treatment in time to save you?

I personally had a heart attack years ago, when I got to the ER they initially didn't treat me as a cardiac patient, I was in my late 40's. 
When they finally got the pads attached to my sorry arse, the alarms went off and all hell broke loose. Code 'Blue' ER.
Suddenly there were over a dozen staff surrounding me, most of them scratching their collective 'heads' when a senior nurse burst through the door and started yelling orders. - I will to this day state irrevocably that she saved me.
IVs were started, medication delivered, a fury of activity, and 60 minutes later I was in the OR having stents placed in my heart.
I had a 'widow maker',  I was extremely, _extremely _lucky and blessed that they did not have to 'crack' my chest and do bypass surgery.

Now take the current situation with the hospitals being overwhelmed. 
Is the level of treatment I received back then even possible today?
I seriously doubt it. I'd probably be a statistic if it were to happen now. And that scares me. . .


----------



## Superburban (Nov 20, 2020)

My understanding is the Covid patients are filling the ICU's, and if they have one, the isolation ward's, not the ER's.

To me, the bigger unknown issue with Covid, is all the other medical procedures and surgeries that are being skipped. How many cancers are not getting detected when they normally would have? How many simple procedures are getting put off, that will be bigger issues down the road? I was supposed to go for some tests next week this week, but I put them off until after the new year, and see how things are then. I had some teeth pulled  back at the beginning of the year, and have some implants waiting at the VA for me, but who knows when they will get put in, at least the bone will be well healed.


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 20, 2020)

Everyone over here believes that Covid patients are filling up hospitals but thats not the case I have been to several in my area doing security installs and they are all almost empty....


----------



## addertooth (Nov 21, 2020)

Much like Cooter Brown, I carry a healthy skepticism to reported numbers in Hospitals.  I can remember 9 months back, and all the claims of full hospitals.  I also remember the expose videos which showed the same "overwhelmed" hospitals with few incoming patients and non-existent lines.  I remember when New York was "overwhelmed" so they sent the hospital ship "Mercy" and ALSO built an emergency hospital in Central Park.  Neither of those two facilities received hardly any use. I checked out my local hospital in the same window, the rumors of how busy it was was "overstated", with 2 Seriously ill covid patients being treated. 

At times like this, it is important to remember the often mis-quoted saying:
"Fool me once, shame on YOU.  Fool me twice, shame on ME."
and..
"Never let a good emergency go to waste."


----------



## rwm (Nov 21, 2020)

I can't speak for Michigan, but I will say this. The hospitals in NC run at 90% capacity all the time and typically have bed shortages every year during flu season. Hence it would not take much of a bump in demand to create a real capacity issue. Also, the physical beds are not the problem. There is a chronic nursing shortage here and in many parts of the country. You cannot have a bed open up without nursing. Right now NC has 1500 hospitalized Covid patients so I think we are pretty close to max capacity. Offsetting that, many expect flu season to be lighter this year due to the restrictions.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we will have bed shortages two weeks after Thanksgiving!

Robert


----------



## Cooter Brown (Nov 21, 2020)

There was a guy in my area a few months ago that was strangled to death by another man the Doctors and police called it a Covid death, even though there was an arrest made for murder...... I would love to be that guy's lawyer.....


----------



## mksj (Nov 21, 2020)

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding as to what is meant as the hospitals are being overwhelmed. It is correct that on a whole some hospitals may not have their beds filled, and in many hospitals there have been significant layoffs of nurses and personnel for many medical areas which were not considered essential treatment. Hospitals are very restrictive as far as doing elective or non-critical treatments, so yes many of the hospitals may appear as being empty on certain wards. Treatment of covid patients requires a negative pressure rooms which are very uncommon, the 300 bed hospital that I worked at had 2 such rooms at the time, shortly after the epidemic they retrofitted one ward (about 30 beds) to negative pressure rooms and also sealed to address covid infected patients. You need respirators, monitoring equipment, etc.  In addition there is a requirement of a fixed critical care nursing staffing ratio, with nurses qualified (and willing) to take care of critical care covid patients and the equipment required to treat these patients. Many of these patients are triaged to tertiary medical centers that are equipped to treat these patients, and as such, many smaller hospitals have very low occupancy and many may not survive due to loss revenue. So lets put this all in context, hospitals are so restrictive as to who comes in, that I recently had a surgical procedure and the surgeon had to do it at a stand alone surgery center as opposed to admitting me to a hospital.

One also need to take into account the hot spots and the epidemiology of the outbreaks, it is a fact that in the hot spots the hospitals are running at capacity to treat covid patients, many now are triaging covid patients to other hospitals with the capacity to treat these patients in a dedicated rooms/wards. So if you show up at the hospital with covid say you are 75 with preexisting conditions and next to you is another patient who is 45 in good health otherwise who do you think will get treated first and more aggressively. My mom who lives in Phoenix is 91 in great health, was pretty much told by her medical doctor that when the hospitals are beyond capacity, pretty much if you are over 75 and/or have co-morbid conditions you are pretty much toast. If you recall in New York when the covid cases were spiking and they had no more beds, they were lining up the bodies like cord wood in refrigerated tractor trailers. We have far surpassed those numbers seen in the first wave and we are now seeing more than 2000 deaths per day with the beginning of this second wave. In the next "month" more people will die from covid, then the worst year then those who succumbed to the seasonal flu. This is not a bad case of the flu, it is not going to go away anytime soon, and the daily cases/death toll will continue to climb at an alarming rate in the next several months. Unfortunately by the time a vaccine rolls out and people receive there 2 doses, we will probably see a doubling of the current death toll without draconian measures which I do not expect to see happen in the US. The UK and the EU have taken a different perspective and they are in a complete lock down mode.  With regard to the video statements by Dr. Roger Hodkinson posted by Cooter above, the statements that covid is no worse than a bad case of the flu, he has provided no evidence to substantiate his statements. He lied about his credentials and he is part of a legal medical firm that does medical litigation, so no doubt he will reap a significant amount of notoriety and money from future litigation.








						UPDATED: Clarification on statements made regarding COVID-19 by Dr. Roger Hodkinson - Royal College Newsroom
					

Updated: Clarification on statements made regarding COVID-19 by a Royal College Fellow, Dr. Rodger Hodkinson.




					newsroom.royalcollege.ca
				




The other aspect people are missing is the long term medical complications being seen with covid, we are now understanding that there are are many long-term complications that may not heal with time. The covid treatment options are still very limited and you would be lucky to be treated at a hospital that has a full arsenal of treatment options. At some point, similar to when we call a code on a patient who's heart has stopped, it is all about assessing the medical situation and chance of resuscitation/future survival.

People that site a particular incident or observation is not backed up by data or the facts, is just an observation with no substance or for that matter knowledge. Too many people want to believe what they want and will go to any means to perpetuate their point of view.  I have been a medical research investigator on 100's of medical trials to prove or disprove a treatment hypothesis, the studies are designed to try to eliminate bias or any preconceived idea's, one reason why they are called double blind studies. I have seen countless testimonials in the treatment of cancer during my medical career such as high dose vit. C, laetrile, and all sort of other magic bullets only to be disproved in randomized clinical trials.

With regard to heard immunity and reinfection, there are documented cases of reinfection based on genetic mapping of the virus, to what degree this occurs is unknown and to some degree many individuals may be silent carriers for a period of time  while unknowingly infecting others. It would appear that the degree that this occurs and the viral load may be diminished because of prior exposure. Risk and severity of covid infection appears to be dependent on the quantity of virus transmitter to another person, so acute high level or longer continuous exposure all seem to be factors. This may be one reason why masks and social distancing have appeared to make an impact in propagation of the virus. So it is not that you are blocking 100% of the virus, but your are diminishing the quantity, and as such your body has more time to mount an immune response. On the issue of why should I wear a mask, there is now an abundance of information that states/areas that have mandated these measures that control of covid transmission is reduced vs. increased. There has also been a massive reduction in covid transmission in many Asian countries with the requirement of mask wearing and better sanitation such as hand disinfection. This may not only be due to mask wearing, but additional measures to limit social contact. If you feel this is a restriction of freedom of individual expression, then why do we have laws that limit how you drive and treat other people. If you get TB, you must wear a mask to protect other, we know this works. QED.








						Trends in COVID-19 Incidence After Implementation ...
					

This report describes trends in the number of COVID-19 cases in Arizona after sustained implementation and enforcement of statewide and locally enhanced mitigation measures.




					www.cdc.gov
				




We are in difficult times, we need a consensus and direction, we are all in this together. If we do not look at the facts and make hard choices, some of which we may not all agree on, things are going to get much worse.  I have my concerns about the covid vaccines, but the data so far is encouraging enough that it could save millions of lives and will only be effective if we hit a certain threshold of people vaccinated. Individuals having  had prior covid may benefit from the vaccine to help prevent different variants of future infection, this is seen with individuals that have had previous Herpes Zoster and are still recommended by the CDC to get Shingrix which is a recombinant (synthesized) DNA vaccine. The major Covid vaccines are recombinant RNA, this vaccine technology is also in other clinical trials for many other indocations such as HPV and cancer indications.

I will not be adding any further comments to this thread, we all need to look at the facts and make rational choices for the future of humanity.


----------



## graham-xrf (Nov 21, 2020)

@mksj Thank you for your quite complete explanation. It rings of comprehensive knowledge, and hard science!
We (in UK) have always known that the health care system in USA provides on purely business statistics motivation. The situation is different in UK. When the Prime Minister (Boris Johnson) became ill with Covid-19, he was put into a NHS hospital along with old and young, and received exactly the same treatment afforded anyone else. Only days ago, he said that his phone had been "pinged". The NHS test-and-trace had detected him having been in contact with another who had tested positive, so he had to self-isolate, and is apparently, doing government business "remotely".

In the published plans for the vaccine rollout, I am in a third or fourth group, behind hospital and essential workers, and those over 80, then those over 75, then me. There are 10 groups.  The statistics on survival of older folk are clear, so they get it first. If you are healthy and in your 40's, it may be well into the summer before you get a jab. As of earlier this week, arrangements are being made to use sports halls and other large venues in a sort of "wartime scale" operation. There is a "phase two" to get the second jab in.

[Despite that we are in severe measures here, we do so feel for our friends in the USA. I have seen the grim situation in El Paso, with one facility having nine refrigerated trailers being used as "mobile morgues"].


----------



## RJSakowski (Nov 21, 2020)

We take COVID preventative measures for three reasons: To protect ourselves, to reduce the probability of spreading the disease to others, and to decrease the burden on our health care workers. The latter has an additional implication in that an over stressed health care system has as a consequence, reduced quality of care for those critically ill and a higher mortality rate.

 If it were only the first reason, I wouldn't be concerned. Everyone should have the right to decide what is in their best interest as long as they are also willing to accept the consequences. It is the latter two reasons that affect the public at large and require a public intervention in one's personal freedoms.


----------



## 7milesup (Nov 21, 2020)

I have a cousin that is a nurse.  They are overwhelmed with Covid patients in MSP.  Not sure where the disconnect comes in our society of "this is a hoax" to "our health care workers are at their breaking point."  Nurses and doctors making the news at night is worth paying attention to.
I have been in "discussions" with people that believe every death is being marked as a Covid death.  Roughly 7000 folks die ever DAY in the US.  You do the math.   Hint... it is about 1.9 million.  Obviously, not even close to every death being counted as Covid.


----------

