# He who hesitates is lost...



## ArmyDoc (Jun 1, 2021)

Two weeks ago, I asked the local farm supply guy how much his 4x8ft treated round posts were.   He said $9.50 if I bought a bundle.  Thats up about 20-25% from the last time I bought about a year to 18 months ago.   Stupid me, I didn't just do it.  I started laying out my fencing project, figuring out what would actually need etc.  Went in today, the price is $11 a bundle - $12each if buying sepparately.  I ordered the bundle.  Local tractor supply is charging almost $12.50.    Just wish I'd done it when I first thought about it.

If you are thinking about buying supplies - particularly lumber or steel, you might want to do it now.  Yes, the prices are up, but I think they are just going to go higher.  The past 10 years of trying to drive the economy out of two recessions by flooding the economy with cash is going to be driving up inflation.  Some areas like lumber and steel have other factors compounding the problem, but I suspect you are going to see it affecting a lot of sectors.   I hope we don't see the double digit inflation of th 1970s all over again, but I wouldn't be surprised.


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## Janderso (Jun 1, 2021)

I don't know. Lumber futures are down 23% according to my financial guy.
We may see a roller coaster ride for a while but lumber should come down when the supply comes up.


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## ArmyDoc (Jun 1, 2021)

Janderso said:


> I don't know. Lumber futures are down 23% according to my financial guy.
> We may see a roller coaster ride for a while but lumber should come down when the supply comes up.


Problem is I don't see the supply coming up...  They are still enforcing the tarrifs agains Canada and there is talk about doubling them, so there isn't any relief coming from that direction.   Many of the mills in the our area shut down and were dismantled completely during the 2007-10 recession.  They were just starting to build a couple of new ones in our area this year, but over-all our mills are way behind the demand.  Last price I checked, cash price per thousand board feet of lumber had climbed to over $1,500. That's up  well over 300% from 2020, so even if it were to decline 23% as your guy suggests, your still looking at prices being almost 2 1/2 times what they were a year ago.


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## Janderso (Jun 1, 2021)

ArmyDoc said:


> Problem is I don't see the supply coming up...  They are still enforcing the tarrifs agains Canada and Biden is talking about doubling them, so there isn't any relief coming from that direction.   Many of the mills in the our area shut down and were dismantled completely during the 2007-10 recession.  They were just starting to build a couple of new ones in our area this year, but over-all our mills are way behind the demand.  Last price I checked, cash price per thousand board feet of lumber had climbed to over $1,500. That's up  well over 300% from 2020, so even if it were to decline 23% as your guy suggests, your still looking at prices being almost 2 1/2 times what they were a year ago.


You obviously know more about this subject than I do. I just dabble in news articles.
Regarding price increases, that $.98 2x4 is now over $8.00.
We talked about OSB a while back. Lowes had them for <$8 a couple years ago, now they run over $40 from what I hear.
Some would love to enjoy a 2 1/2 times price increase.
It has to be changing production schedules, those upcoming remodels may be put off until the prices come down.
I heard of a $36,000 price increase for lumber costs for your typical, Joe lunchbox, 3 bedroom 2 bath new home!!
This is crazy.


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## sdelivery (Jun 1, 2021)

Look at steel framing members.
Almost anything you need to frame a structure and trusses and roofs can all be purchased in steel


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## RJSakowski (Jun 1, 2021)

I'm glad that my major construction projects are done. A problem that I see is that if the sawmills realize they can make as much profit by charging 2-1/2 times as much for their product and limiting production to control supply, it will become the way of the future.

 I would think the current situation would spur the growth of micromills.  There are number of locals that operate portable sawmills.  Previously, they specialized in hardwoods or larger dimension lumber not available from the DIY's but that could change.  At $1.50/bd-ft., milling softwood dimensional lumber could be very profitable.  There is plenty of softwood timber around.


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## mmcmdl (Jun 1, 2021)

Uh oh , so now I need to buy a sawmill !  Woodland Mills sells a nice one , I just bought their stump grinder awhile back . I could harvest a lot of oak from up at my property . I constantly get offers to log my property out . I tell them I bought a wooded 45 acres for trees , not for you to log it !


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## Nutfarmer (Jun 1, 2021)

OBS  4x8 in Home Depot yesterday was 68 dollars a sheet !  We are being told inflation isn't a problem.


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## Larry$ (Jun 1, 2021)

I would build with steel frame but around here even a steel stud framed garage requires a a set of engineering drawings and engineer's stamp. Termites don't like steel!


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## NCjeeper (Jun 1, 2021)




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## Peyton Price 17 (Jun 1, 2021)

it went from 11 bucks a sheet to 15 in 3 days here right at the start.


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## mmcmdl (Jun 1, 2021)

I just put some landscaping ties in , they went from $3.99 to $6.29 overnight . Hopefully I'll have some good veggies this year . ( they better be )


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## ArmyDoc (Jun 1, 2021)

Janderso said:


> You obviously know more about this subject than I do. I just dabble in news articles.
> Regarding price increases, that $.98 2x4 is now over $8.00.
> We talked about OSB a while back. Lowes had them for <$8 a couple years ago, now they run over $40 from what I hear.
> Some would love to enjoy a 2 1/2 times price increase.
> ...


It is. My parents are moving out and we were planning to build a small house for them on out property so they would be near by but everyone could still have their own space... hoping we will be able to afford it.


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## ArmyDoc (Jun 1, 2021)

Larry$ said:


> I would build with steel frame but around here even a steel stud framed garage requires a a set of engineering drawings and engineer's stamp. Termites don't like steel!


Definitely going to have to look into that.  Not as familiar with steel market/costs, but I hear they are up 20% this year too.  Beats 250% all to hell though...


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## Cadillac STS (Jun 1, 2021)

ICF construction (Foam forms 2 inches each side filled on site with rebar and concrete.) usually was 10% higher than stick built with lumber.  Probably a lot less now..









						ICF Construction: Everything You Need To Know
					

Insulated Concrete Forms (ICF) are becoming a more common way to build homes. But just how sustainable are Insulated Concrete Forms?




					www.buildwithrise.com


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## Reddinr (Jun 1, 2021)

I bought (20)  2" x 10" x 16 Ft cedar rough-cut planks last year to build some raised beds for my wife.  They have been stickered, drying and going up in value since then.  I think I could resell them now and retire.  But... my wife still wants the raised beds.


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## Cadillac (Jun 1, 2021)

Steel has more than doubled. This ————- is killing us. Stimulus means nothing when just gas has nearly doubled. Along with EVERYTHING else.


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## C-Bag (Jun 1, 2021)

I don’t know where your buying your steel but I’m buying monthly an I’m seeing maybe 15-20% increase. There are supply problems and there are outfits gouging. Make a shortage and blame the gov while hike their prices. Don’t want to get political here....


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## C-Bag (Jun 1, 2021)

Instead of speculation here’s a really good explanation:


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## mmcmdl (Jun 2, 2021)

They're building a McMansion next to me since the winter . Work has stopped for 2 weeks now , don't know why .


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## Eddyde (Jun 2, 2021)

I'm a contractor, currently doing a major remodeling of a 3,500 square foot home. The price increase of lumber over the last year has easily added over $25,000 to the budget, and I'm only about half-way through buying wood...


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## NCjeeper (Jun 2, 2021)




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## Cadillac (Jun 2, 2021)

C-Bag said:


> I don’t know where your buying your steel but I’m buying monthly an I’m seeing maybe 15-20% increase. There are supply problems and there are outfits gouging. Make a shortage and blame the gov while hike their prices. Don’t want to get political here....


Northern Indiana, and heart of Chicago. Piece of 1/8 hot rolled was 64 dollars last year it is now 142. I buy by the ton not sheets. Luckily I bought 50 sheets of 18g awhile back before all this and it’s still at my supplier warehouse.


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## sdelivery (Jun 2, 2021)

Cadillac said:


> Steel has more than doubled. This ————- is killing us. Stimulus means nothing when just gas has nearly doubled. Along with EVERYTHING else.


Think of it  just last year we were no 1 exporter of oil and fuel was cheaper than it had been in years.....


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## C-Bag (Jun 2, 2021)

Cadillac said:


> Northern Indiana, and heart of Chicago. Piece of 1/8 hot rolled was 64 dollars last year it is now 142. I buy by the ton not sheets. Luckily I bought 50 sheets of 18g awhile back before all this and it’s still at my supplier warehouse.


Well ya got me there as the cheapest I could get a sheet of 1/8 rolled was $400+ last year when I checked. I’m afraid to ask now.


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## JimDawson (Jun 2, 2021)

Our material costs have gone up about 20% over the last 6 months or so.  We buy a lot of aluminum and stainless.  Just bought about 2500 lb of stainless, and about 2000 lbs of aluminum and it had gone up over the last order about 3 months ago.  Our biggest problem is actually getting the material now, a lot of back orders.  I was talking with a customer the other day and they are having trouble getting aluminum, they also buy about 2000 to 4000 lbs on an order.

I've been having some problems even getting industrial vendors to respond to me.  For the last week I have been trying to buy a large servo motor, I only got a response back from one vendor and that took almost a week.  Waiting on a quote now.


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## NCjeeper (Jun 2, 2021)




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