Electric Vehicles on the horizon? Do your homework

[Janderso]

To my friends,

I've been in the Ford dealer franchise business since 1976. I've been a general manager since the early 90's.
This momentum to move to an ever increasing electric vehicle line-up, has me questioning the wisdom.
""General Motors plans to completely phase out vehicles using internal combustion engines by 2035""

High Voltage battery basics:
Electric cars use Lithium-ion battery packs -"Critical raw materials used in manufacturing Li-ion batteries (LIBs) include lithium, graphite, cobalt, and manganese."

I've seen the videos of children in the Congo working in the cobalt mines. Huge open pit mines are used for other materials.

No, electric cars, they are not zero emissions vehicles... During manufacturing, energy production and at the end of their life cycle. In the first case, the need for mining activities to extract the rare earth metals that are used in batteries is very energy consuming and polluting.
As for the energy production, if the car is being powered with energy from burning fossil fuels, it is still releasing CO2 in the atmosphere, not from the tailpipe but from some distant power plant. When it comes to batteries being recycled, it is still an expensive and ongoing process and most batteries are not being recycled yet.

The financial aspect of EV ownership.
EV's come with a 115AC charger. It will not fully charge the battery overnight assuming it was down to a low state of charge. A high capacity charger is available but must (in most cases) be installed by an electrician. We installed two at the dealership at a cost of $1,100 each (charger and labor).
Know the costs!

EV battery warranty
The EV battery warranty in this country is 8 years or 100,000 miles. I just priced a replacement battery for the Mustang Mach e. The standard 68kWh battery is $26,000.
The upgraded 88kWh battery is $36,000 to replace. That's just the battery, it does not include labor or an unknown recycling charge. Anyone know how to get rid of a used 88 kWh battery?

What's that used EV worth, knowing the looming high cost battery replacement?

Yes I'm sure battery technology will continue to improve and there are institutions like MIT that are working on battery technology that uses common materials.

Range anxiety
You planned your trip, you know there is a high capacity charging station 175 miles into your journey. Hopefully when you get there the chargers are available. Another thing about Lithium-Ion batteries, they don't like heat. Hot climates and level 3 fast charging stations can diminish battery lifespan. It has been determined that regular use of level 3 high rate chargers will cause the batteries to fail (will not hold 70% of the original capacity) prematurely.

This subject is widely discussed on the web.

I wanted to start a discussion on this subject. Electric cars are coming but who can afford them? How do we recycle or dispose of the used batteries? Know the true cost and impact before you decide to buy an EV.

Thanks,
Jeff

 

[Ulma Doctor]

Ecologically, we need to have everyone drive Hummers to save our planet.
Battery technology is not the answer
Battery production and the lack of recycling of these little packets of poison far outweighs clean air technology presently imposed
They are cute toys, but the (ecological) cost is not worth the ultimate price for the novelty

 

[rabler]

I did a spreadsheet for the cost difference in 2014 when I bought a Ford Fusion straight IC vs hybrid. IIRC the $5k additional charge for the hybrid was a 5 year break even at about $2.85/gallon given the number of miles per year I drove before retirement. Not sure I actually reached that point.

Of course all vehicles have some carbon footprint in building and scrapping. Centralized power generation is a bit more efficient than individual engines. And power plants can be a ling way from more smog ridden city. The carbon argument in my mind is not clear.

The cost of and disposal of batteries is a big open question in my mind.

 

[vtcnc]

I think this is a good discussion to have. There are a lot of questions as a consumer, engineer, service tech, salesperson, etc.

One thing I'm going to put out there now is that this discussion stay clear of politics.

TLDR: if your response is political, take it off this forum.

Everyone knows the topics that put us squarely into politics and are tangentially or directly related to the topic of electric vehicles. That is global warming hoaxes, political tax subsidies, government conspiracy theories and in general, political ideologies. I will state for the record that this rule, while nuanced, is clear to understand if one takes the time to do so.

________________________

Jeff,

Affordability. I think this is not an easy question to answer. There are many vehicles that kind of fall into the low-emission category but are not fully electric but are of the hybrid style.

I think the problem of natural resource consumption for the amount of energy required by current battery technology is a big problem that is not being addressed. If it is being addressed it is not clear to me what is being done in terms of new technology.

With that said, I can see myself jumping to hybrid in the next five years. But I'm sticking with conventional IC for now. Its proven technology and as emission controls and MPG requirements get more stringent, the cost of ownership will likely still be lower than EV for the foreseeable future and marginally better on emission controls for air quality than current IC which is one of the claimed benefits of purchasing an EV vehicle.

Scale will drop the price. But I think there is a limit to the natural resource supply for this technology. Here is an article discussing Li reserves. There is a lot of uncertainty about how much is really available.

How long will the lithium supply last?

Researchers have sounded the alarm. If no serious efforts are made on second-life battery use, recycling and vehicle-to-grid applications, decarbonization efforts may hit the buffers a lot sooner than expected.

www.pv-magazine.com

With that said, I think that the long term solution is a different technology such as hydrogen, or other chemical technologies. They actually exist and are coming.

I personally can't afford an all electric vehicle as of today. I think this option makes sense if you are in a financial sector of the world: high density population, higher salaries, short commuting distances, small-ish vehicle requirements. In a country as vast as the US, Canada, Russia or many westernized countries where people rely on their vehicles for work over longer distances - it is hard for me to see how this will work financially for the average blue collar worker - which is basically everyone.

 

[Superburban]

I do not think full electric is ready for prime time yet.

If one is going to look at the field, you need to break the offerings down.

1 full electric, with no gas option.
2 hybrid, gas & electric, with no electric only option.
3 Plug in hybrid, can plug it in, and have a limited range on electric, but still have the gas engine that reverts it back to a hybrid operation.

Many do not realize that a hybrid is not gas or electric. But rather a combination of both. Many gas cars have a setup that shuts off the engine at stop lights. When that happens, there is nothing turning the AC compressor, so the inside will start warming up. Then the starter has to start the engine when you lift your foot off the brake, so it is running to get you moving again. I like to describe a hybrid as a next generation of that.

At a stop, the engine is off, but the AC, power steering, brakes, ect are run off the battery. When you step on the gas, the electric motor will start you moving, and the gas engine will kick in and both will get you up to speed. then half way down the block as you start coasting, the gas engine will shut down, and the battery will keep the power steering, brakes, and AC working. As you coast, or hit the brakes, most of the momentum is used to give the battery a hair of a recharge. Then it all happens over again. With most if not all the hybrids, the electric motor that propels the vehicle, is also the one that starts the engine. so you have a 100 or more HP 3 phase AC motor for starting. Not a little 3 hp DC motor that will wear out in no time. Do not confues an electric or hybrid with a golf cart. These are way more advanced. Think of them more as a powerful 3 phase 400 to 600 volt AC motor, powered through a VFD.

The few I test drove, the engine kicking in was hard to notice.

I have a Chrysler Pacifica plug in hybrid, for 90% of my driving, it works great on electric only. But I live in a medium town, in the middle of nowhere, so I seldom need to go more the 10 miles, But it is still a great driving vehicle for long trips without needing to charge it. One thing it has, that some of the other offerings do not, is that the hybrid version still has almost the same gas engine that the gas version has, plus almost 200 hp electric motors that can also kick in if needed to accelerate. I say almost the same engine, as it is the same block, just setup for economy, and does not have the power across the range that a normal gas engine is setup to do, but it is not needed with the electric motors being there to get you off the line. taking 10 hours to recharge is ok for me, as I only drive a few days a week. An added benifit, is I can precondition the car interrior with heat, or AC while it is still plugged, and not need to use gas.

I have about 10,000 miles on mine, about 2000 is from using the gas motor, most of that was from a trip I took to Yellowstone last fall. Even without plugging it in the whole trip, each day was about 2/3 gas, and 1/3 electric.

The other deciding factor for me, was the federal and state tax rebates. with trading in my gas 2017 Pacifica, I ended up getting a 2020 hybrid, that will save me gas, has more creature comforts, and only cost me a couple grand.

It has a 10 year. 100,000 mile warranty on the hybrid stuff, I plan on trading it in before that point.

Replacing the battery? Take a look, they are made up of several thousand individual cells. I doubt they will ever just disposed of, but rather rebuilt, with each cell tested, and only replace the ones that need. There is many folks on youtube, scarfing up the batteries, and using them for solar power storage.

I would not write of electric & hybrid vehicles as bad, the technology is improving, and can only get better. I have not studied, done research, or claim to be an expert, but I do think that tires could be a worse problem for the environment, that batteries that are pretty well all recycled.

If one does look at a hybrid, be sure to test drive in both modes.some campanies use a 4 cyl engine in their hybrids, and a 6 in the gas version, and people have complained that they cannot run on the highway very well.

 

[Superburban]

If one wants to understand hybrids better, this explanation of how the transmission used in most hybrids works, this is a great video to watch.

Also, when comparing the environmental effect, I think you need to take into account the simplicity of a electric, or hybrid, over these new gas cars with 8 to 10 speed transmissions. how much extra harm is done by the manufacturing, fluid changes, ect?

 

[ErichKeane]

We actually just bought my wife a Kia Niro EV and are incredibly happy with it. Thanks to incentives/etc, we actually got it for roughly the same price as the ICE version of the same car.

While Lithium Ion batteries are pretty rough on the environment (about as much as getting oil from the ground), it is at least a 1 time cost. Additionally, Aluminum-Ion batteries are apparently a few years away which should make that at least a little better.

Even when powered from coal/fossil fuels, the EVs are slightly better off emissions wise, since a giant generator running at perfect-efficiency all the time is better than an idling gas motor.

I installed a 220v charger, the charger itself was $350, and it took an afternoon to install. It would have been less had I not had to run a circuit for it.

As far as battery replacement, that price is actually quite high, of course the factory replacement price is going to be sky-high!. As the cars get older, recyclers/refurbishers of batteries are getting the prices down quite low. Currently the battery-costs are roughly $100/kWh in a new car. Based on an article I read recently, the manufacturers all think they can get that to $60 in the next 2-3 years.

Additionally, recycling the batteries is likely to become really easy really soon. Early hybrid cars (like the Prius) already have a huge network to recycle them, you can often even make money on them (thanks to the value of the raw materials).

For Range Anxiety: We were pleasantly surprised with how plentiful Level-3 chargers are! They DO reduce the life of the battery when used regularly, but how often do you really break 250 miles in a day? In our case, its almost never, the overnight level-2 charger at our house is more than sufficient. Note that just about every Walmart in the country has chargers in their lots these days. There are even apps (PlugShare) to help find chargers with live-status.

I'm a massive petrol head that was quite sure that electric cars were still YEARS away, but other events forced our hands (my wife's car got totaled). We still have my Diesel pickup as a backup in case we need a long journey that we can't do quick chargers, but I'm more-and-more convinced that we don't even need that.

Just my 2c based on having owned one for a month now.

 

[Superburban]

Avilability of chargers is a good point. This little town only has a few, one Tesla one that I cannot use, and Sams club has one that costs upwards of $5 an hour(to charge my Pacifica, it costs me $1.25 with our rates at home, to get 30 to 40 miles. A level 2 charger takes 2.5 to 3 hours to chage, so would be looking at $10 or more). I know there are free ones around the country, (even higher density in Canada). When I went to Yellowstone last fall, there was several around the park, but every one was occupied, even with the park nearly empty. From my travels, I would hate to have to rely on charging an electric only car.

 

[Aukai]

It gets ugly if an EV catches fire too. I have not confirmed, but read let it burn, protect surroundings. 30,000 gal did not put out the EV fire that I was reading about. Maybe Jeff has some industry information.

 

[Janderso]

I personally can't afford an all electric vehicle as of today. I think this option makes sense if you are in a financial sector of the world: high density population, higher salaries, short commuting distances, small-ish vehicle requirements

I agree, if you live in an urban setting and all your stops are relatively close an EV may be the answer.
If your commute was say 45 miles, you could easily go the week and charge at night. With a 250+ mile range.